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Convective/storm Discussion


Nick F

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Please continue discussion of the storm potential today ...

Netweather storm forecast for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

A look at the 00z Camborne and Herstmonceux radiosonde ascents revealed a readily unstable troposphere - sfc heating of this airmass likely to generate quite a bit of CAPE over Sern UK today. Little vertical shear (backing of winds towards the surface), so wouldn't anticipate any organised severe weather, though quite high CAPE values and steep lapse rates may bring marginally severe hail over central and eastern areas.

post-1052-1246949489_thumb.pngpost-1052-1246949856_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

might have a better chance today than yesterday...

The sky here looks more thundery than yesterday here..

Havent looked at the radar..

going on a feeling today might see some beefy showers so putting camera's into position's for the assumption I might be in luck..

Again met office keeping us out of the warning's....But that was issued early hrs so plenty of time to change

Need the rain here...

edit...Mark MC...did you do time lapse of yesterday...looking forward to the vid

thx for the forecast Nick always interested in your forecast's

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Hmmmmmm, ESTOFEX have no storms forecast today, yet I feel there are more possibilities for us. The sky on the way into work was like the pages of the I-Spy book of cloud formations!

UKASF more up-beat with:

4c4687bbf4548a5e661aca35108cfa95.png

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-07-06 18:30:00

Valid: 2009-07-07 00:00:00 - 2009-07-07 23:59:00

Regions Affected

Southern England, Southeast England, East Anglia, The Midlands, Wales, Northern England. (Southwest England, Southern Scotland, East Ireland are included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

An area of LOW pressure to the NE of the UK will dominate the weather across many areas during Tuesday, although being centred offshore will still provide an unstable air mass across the UK, which will aid the development of thunderstorms throughout the day. An occluded weather front moving across the country, with a trough initially close behind across the south, will allow left over showers to continue throughout the early hours of Tuesday morning, these are then expected to continue and intensify throughout the day within the THUNDERSTORM risk area, with conditions favourable for rapid convection. Several 100 j/kg CAPE overland in the Midlands, CS England, SE England, East Anglia, Wales and into parts of N England may be sufficient for storms to produce hail, along with torrential downpours, this will heighten the risk of local flooding. Thunderstorms are expected to reduce in coverage later in the evening, although eastern areas will see the risk remain the longest. A forecast update may be issued on Tuesday.

TORRO haven't updated yesterdays forecast yet, but they seem to wait until later in the morning.

Looks like the East has more possibilities as the day builds:

Rmgfs186.gif

Although almost anywhere could be in for something according to aviation weather sources:

21OWS_EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_36.GIF

post-6667-1246951210_thumb.png

The local BBC weather forecast was talking of heavy showers, some thundery in the SE today (but then they said that about last night too and we didn't get anything)

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33_19.gif

All in all an interesting day and one to watch I feel!

ASII_20090707_0645.png

EDIT: UPDATE ON ESTOFEX:

post-6667-1246952388_thumb.jpg

Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 07 Jul 2009 06:00 to Wed 08 Jul 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 07 Jul 2009 07:15

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for SE UK for spouts and excessive local precipitation.

A level 1 was issued for the SE North Sea area for spouts.

SYNOPSIS

With a depression over the North Sea, a colder unstable airmass enters western Europe. The cold front is not sharply defined, but a gradient in theta-w and boundary layer moisture will pass over Germany during the afternoon. The most significant instability is situated south of the Alps, the Balkan and along the east coast of Spain. The jet circles the cooler unstable airmass over France and creates moderate deep layer shear conditions over northern Italy to Slovenia. A shortwave trough comes through the Italian/NW Balkan level area during the evening and night hours, while shear increases at the same time.

DISCUSSION

...southeastern UK...

Very slow storm motion and low LCL heights favor local flash floods, and significant 0-3 km CAPE with weak winds and convergence lines are likely to yield a number of spouts and funnels.

Spouts can also be expected over the southeastern North Sea through most of the period, but most likely seems Wednesday morning when pressure gradients weaken more.

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
  • Location: Hughenden Valley, Buckinghamshire.
might have a better chance today than yesterday...

The sky here looks more thundery than yesterday here..

Havent looked at the radar..

going on a feeling today might see some beefy showers so putting camera's into position's for the assumption I might be in luck..

Again met office keeping us out of the warning's....But that was issued early hrs so plenty of time to change

Need the rain here...

edit...Mark MC...did you do time lapse of yesterday...looking forward to the vid

thx for the forecast Nick always interested in your forecast's

yep! i think we may hear some rumbles today and hopfully get a thunderstorm!

it feels like i have been waiting like forever for some T & L tocome my way!

i'll be glued to my computer today as im not working! today is my storm watching day :winky:

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

CAPE of around 1000J/Kg over the Midlands this afternoon. All the major forecasts are going with a thunderstorm risk, estofex reckon a chance of spouts.

However, i worry... could cloud cover pose a problem for the high CAPE values being shown to be realised. There is thick cloud and persistent moderate rain here, has been all morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Chorlton (h) Cheadle Royal (o)
  • Location: Chorlton (h) Cheadle Royal (o)

Very heavy rain in south Manchester in the early hours, heard a distant rumble at about 06:45. Stopped now but I've a great view out of my office window of the towers going up in Cheshire. Clouds are moving quite quickly too.

Andrew

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Hello All

As I'm off today I thought I'd setup my webcam, even if there are no storms u can see pretty clouds :winky: . Its running on my 50mbps line so it should be good quality.

Let me know..

http://exchange.lps-design.co.uk:8080

(if you're using Firefox select motion jpeg from the drop down list, it's much smoother.)

Ta

Stuart

Edited by YokTok
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Best chance for heavy to severe storms would appear to be in counties immediately north of London into East Anglia, and including the northern half of greater London. Risks would include 30 mm rainfalls, small hail, very localized small tornado (otherwise does not seem conducive to wind gusts over 35 mph). I'm having a flashback to a day in July 1965 when I was visiting and the skies looked like they must look right now in London all morning, then it rained and hailed and thundered very impressively at the Tower of London (I was not imprisoned there as some might imagine). No idea what date although would have to be second half of the month. I think that was the first time I realized that there could be a heavy thunderstorm in England (this was before the internet, remember). :winky:

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Posted
  • Location: Chester
  • Weather Preferences: the stormier the better...
  • Location: Chester

Doesnt look good for us again...very overcast at the moment and only 11c so no chance of heating...hope others have more luck

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Hello All

As I'm off today I thought I'd setup my webcam, even if there are no storms u can see pretty clouds :winky: . Its running on my 50mbps line so it should be good quality.

Let me know..

http://exchange.lps-design.co.uk:8080

(if you're using Firefox select motion jpeg from the drop down list, it's much smoother.)

Ta

Stuart

very impressive Stuart-seems smooth on IE7

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
I'm having a flashback to a day in July 1965 when I was visiting and the skies looked like they must look right now in London all morning, then it rained and hailed and thundered very impressively at the Tower of London (I was not imprisoned there as some might imagine). No idea what date although would have to be second half of the month. I think that was the first time I realized that there could be a heavy thunderstorm in England (this was before the internet, remember). :winky:

Morning Roger.

The period you're referring to is 19th July to 25th. This was a very disturbed period with heavy rainfall totals and even a tornado in Wisley, Surrey.

Seems LP centred over the UK was responsible.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119650721.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Thunderstorm being reported around Runcorn over on ukww so things getting going already. Things should be moving NW to SE too today, so maybe a chance those storms may get here in the next couple of hours. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

:) And now its starting to warm up a little.......

post-6667-1246958296_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
Thunderstorm being reported around Runcorn over on ukww so things getting going already. Things should be moving NW to SE too today, so maybe a chance those storms may get here in the next couple of hours. :)

Looks to me like its from NE to SW :S

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, NY!! (151m) 496ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Supernova hot summers with mega lightning storms, and SNOWMAGGEDON WINTERS!
  • Location: Cambridge, NY!! (151m) 496ft ASL

Morning all,

seems a bit too cool for storms so far in Notts. I could see my breath this morning when walking my dog. Been raining for hours, although it has stopped now but totally overcast. A bit worried with this cloud as there will be no chance for convection! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire

I may just ask this because we seem to have avoided everything so far this year.

Will Lincoln get some thunder today? Everything seemed to miss here yesterday.

At the moment it is rather cold and cloudy. Can only see stratus clouds.

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon, Cambs. (Formerly from Bristol)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, and Snow.
  • Location: Huntingdon, Cambs. (Formerly from Bristol)

Morning everyone,

I hope to see some thundery activity today.

Whilst driving my bus last evening and night ( a 0:24am finish :) ), I saw no lightning at all, nor rain, but I did see some wonderful lines of anvils off to the south east of Cambridge :) .

Very Best Wishes,

Bob.

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Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!

Driving South from Lancashire to Hampshire today. Should see some good action along the way! Will have camera in car ready for any photo opportunities!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

once again-the best advice is

1 read the link to the convective forecast from Nick F at the top of this thread

2 go to the technical discussion thread and read the input from Brick

3 watch your radar and the surface charts early afternoon to see if convergence zones are being set up. The upper trough is about Norfolk to central southern England and will swing east so it may phase in with one of these zones if they do form.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
I may just ask this because we seem to have avoided everything so far this year.

Will Lincoln get some thunder today? Everything seemed to miss here yesterday.

At the moment it is rather cold and cloudy. Can only see stratus clouds.

It is going to be very difficult to pinpoint a specific town to hear thunder today. You have a reasonable chance, about the same as me. Although from reading the forecasts it would appear areas such as the Pennines and then towards London have a marginally better chance.

Just read the technical thread. I had a feeling cloud cover may be a problem. Certainly a long way from 20c here. Still, its a case of radar watching today again i think.

Edited by Supacell
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