Hurricane Carlos

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 95E has become TD04E. Latest from NHC:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009

0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 111.5W AT 10/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 111.5W AT 10/0900Z

AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 10.2N 112.6W

MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 10.4N 114.8W

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 10.6N 117.2W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 11.0N 119.6W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.0N 124.5W

MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 13.0N 129.5W

MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 13.5N 134.5W

MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 111.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$

FORECASTER BERG

Quite agressive strengthening shown by NHC, with low shear and very warm waters, 04E has potential to become a hurricane, and quite quickly perhaps.

[londonsnow]

I hadnt noticed 04e. Certainly one to watch in the next few days with increasingly favourable conditions. I think you're right somerset, we may get hurricane Ana out of this. About time after such a slow start to the 09 season which El Nino may have a hand in

[Somerset Squall]

I hadnt noticed 04e. Certainly one to watch in the next few days with increasingly favourable conditions. I think you're right somerset, we may get hurricane Ana out of this. About time after such a slow start to the 09 season which El Nino may have a hand in

This is the East Pacific LS. The Atlantic is still sleeping, lol. This one will be Hurricane Carlos if it manages to strengthen that much. Conditions certainly are favourable and as 04E is forecast to continue heading generally westwards then it shouldn't reach any colder waters for the forseeable future too.

[Somerset Squall]

Latest image of 04E:

[kold weather]

Conditions look pretty condusive for a hurricane at this moment with warm waters and pretty low shear thanks to the just slight north of west track that this system is taking.

Convection has been a little too sparse to justify an upgrade to TS status but over the last couple of hours the system has developed a new region of deep convection which may be enough to help take this system to TS status. Whatever happens I suspect we will be seeing a TS out of this depression sooner then later.

[Somerset Squall]

Convection has been a little too sparse to justify an upgrade to TS status but over the last couple of hours the system has developed a new region of deep convection which may be enough to help take this system to TS status. Whatever happens I suspect we will be seeing a TS out of this depression sooner then later.

Agreed KW, convection is really starting to increase now and I would be surprised if the depression didn't become a TS next update:

[Cookie]

this map below shows tropical storm any time soon

[Cookie]

Upgraded to Tropical Storm Carlos

WTPZ34 KNHC 102034

TCPEP4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009

200 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009

...DEPRESSION REACHES STORM STRENGTH...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOS WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910

MILES...1465 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A

MOTION TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND CARLOS IS

FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...

LOCATION...10.3N 113.9W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

800 PM PDT.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

559

WTPZ24 KNHC 102033

TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009

2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 113.9W AT 10/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.

34 KT....... 30NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 113.9W AT 10/2100Z

AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 10.4N 115.6W

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT... 45NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 10.8N 117.8W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 11.1N 120.1W

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 11.4N 122.5W

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.0N 127.0W

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 12.5N 131.5W

MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 13.0N 136.0W

MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

511

WTPZ44 KNHC 102035

TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009

200 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009

DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z WERE T2.5

AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY. THE CYCLONE HAS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF

DEEP CONVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF DAY...AND ENOUGH BANDING GENERALLY

TO GIVE IT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL

STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12...AGAIN FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS

ESTIMATE. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE

REMNANTS OF BLANCA IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF CARLOS...BUT THE

GLOBAL MODELS ALL FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND

WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...CARLOS IS

EXPECTED TO GAIN LITTLE LATITUDE AND REMAIN ON A TRACK JUST NORTH

OF WEST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS

IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH MODEST DIFFERENCES

PRIMARILY IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A

LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN DEFERENCE TO THE

ECMWF...WHICH IS THE SLOWEST OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS.

CARLOS IS WELL ORGANIZED AND RELATIVELY SMALL...OVER VERY WARM

WATERS AND IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. CONSEQUENTLY IT IS A DECENT

CANDIDATE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH THIS DOESN'T OCCUR

OFTEN IN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORMS. THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE ESTIMATES

A 35% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF

THE TIGHTLY PACKED DSHP/LGEM/HWFI/GHMI ENSEMBLE. TOWARD THE END OF

THE FORECAST PERIOD...CARLOS SHOULD BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER

WATERS...WHICH MIGHT ACT TO SLOW THE STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 10.3N 113.9W 35 KT

12HR VT 11/0600Z 10.4N 115.6W 40 KT

24HR VT 11/1800Z 10.8N 117.8W 45 KT

36HR VT 12/0600Z 11.1N 120.1W 50 KT

48HR VT 12/1800Z 11.4N 122.5W 55 KT

72HR VT 13/1800Z 12.0N 127.0W 65 KT

96HR VT 14/1800Z 12.5N 131.5W 75 KT

120HR VT 15/1800Z 13.0N 136.0W 80 KT

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Somerset Squall]

Interesting the potential for rapid intensification. It wouldn't be surprising given the small size of Carlos. This is the type of storm I like: nowhere near land, and the potential to become a biggie.

[Cookie]

Interesting the potential for rapid intensification. It wouldn't be surprising given the small size of Carlos. This is the type of storm I like: nowhere near land, and the potential to become a biggie.

I could be getting this all wrong, but should Hawaii be worried by this system down the line?

[Somerset Squall]

I could be getting this all wrong, but should Hawaii be worried by this system down the line?

Possibly, but it's really difficult to tell at this point. Carlos is a long way from Hawaii right now so who knows whether a) Carlos will survive that long and b ) whether Carlos will track that far north to effect Hawaii. In addition, waters are still cool around Hawaii at this time of year which would weaken Carlos. So yes, Hawaii should cast a weary eye on Carlos but as it stands the storm could be in a much worse place.

[Cookie]

I don't know the east pacific as well as Atlantic side. but will defiantly be worth watching

[Somerset Squall]

I don't know the east pacific as well as Atlantic side. but will defiantly be worth watching

Indeed, hopefully this is a sign that things are finally picking up!

[kold weather]

Carlos has everything that it needs to go on to become a major hurricane, if I had to make a punt I'd go for a high end cat-3 so hopefully a good looker. I'd hestiate to go higher then that as further west it goes the more lattiude it will gain and the SST's sharply fall away once your north of 13-14N. Also the models are suggesting that shear will increase more around 130W, though it has to be noted that shear forecasts are well known to be quite poor from the global models at times.

RI looks quite possible IF it does develop a region of concentrated deep convection right over the core. Its a small and tight systems plus over warm water/low shear it has at least a moderate chance.

Hawaii coud well be in the track of it, the models have been suggesting that there is a ridge weakness very close by. The main issue will be strength. As I've already mentioned conditions will not nearly as condusive for Carlos by that time. It'll likely be in cooler waters and shear is quite likely to increase, though to what extent who knows. Still Carlos does need to be watched, I think the odds of it coming close to the Islands as at least a TS are fairly reasonable as it happens.

[Somerset Squall]

Carlos has rapidly strengthened overnight and intensity is now at 55kts. A central dense overcast feature of sorts has formed surrounded by spiral banding. NHC forecast Carlos to become a hurricane within the next 12hrs, as the small storm takes advantage of the low shear and high ocean heat content. Carlos has about 96hrs left of favourable conditions before shear is progged to increase and waters cool at around 140W.

[kold weather]

Carlos's convection isn't quite as impressive as it had been last night and so it seems strengthening has slowed down somewhat after pretty fast strengthening last night. Its still going to have very good conditions to strengthen in and heat content is more then enough for the next 96hrs for this to become a major hurricane I think.

[Somerset Squall]

Central convection really building again after waning earlier, perhaps he is now putting on the effort to become a hurricane. NHC noted the possibility of an eyewall devleoping in the latest advisory:

[kold weather]

Carlos is getting closer and closer to become a hurricane now, the deep convection has developed over the center which is a good sign of strengthening. I'm waiting to see the latest microwave imagery, that will be able to give us a good indication into what stage the core is in terms of development.

Still think top end category-3 is my call but we shall see!

[Cookie]

I will go for a cat 4 then.

[Somerset Squall]

Although an advisory hasn't been issued yet, sustained winds have risen to 65kts and an eye has emerged in the central dense overcast feature- Carlos is now a hurricane. It appears Carlos could well be going through a period of quick intensifiction, maybe akin to last night- we shall see. Carlos is a compact hurricane in very favourable conditions so the ingredients are there for Carlos to become a major hurricane as you say Kold.

[kold weather]

The structure really has improved in the last 3 hours, as has been mentioned an eye has formed on the Vis imagery and it really is starting to get a classic look. Still needs a bit more beefing up before it has a real good shot at becoming a major but its got a few days yet of very good conditions. I'd say SS right now its undergoing pretty fast strengthening and I think over the next 12hrs it may well undergo RI as well, the presentation has improved in a big way.

Everything seems in place for a major now, I'd be surprised if it doesn't get to major status actually. Shear is low and heat content is pretty high for the next 36-48hrs, which is more then enough time for decent strengthening to occur. I'd say 65kts is a good estimate for now with regards to its current strength, Sat. data suggests about that as well.

[Cookie]

like you guys say its looking good.

[Cookie]

NHC confims Hurricane carlos

ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009

2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 117.7W AT 11/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB

EYE DIAMETER 10 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 45SW 55NW.

12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 117.7W AT 11/2100Z

AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 117.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 10.7N 119.3W

MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.

50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 10.9N 121.7W

MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.

50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.0N 124.0W

MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.

50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 11.2N 126.5W

MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 12.0N 131.0W

MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 12.5N 136.0W

MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W

MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 117.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN

[Cookie]

A proper beast. looking good

[Cookie]

A cat 3 Hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. really starting to look good this.