Tropical Storm Dolores

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 96E has been upgraded to a tropical depression this morning:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009

800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH

THE AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT

PASS. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE

CENTER...IT IS ORGANIZED INTO BANDS ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH

SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT ON THE BASIS OF THE ASCAT

DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SINCE THE CIRCULATION

CENTER HAS SO LITTLE HISTORY...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9. THE

ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT MID

LEVELS...AND A LOW AT UPPER LEVELS...LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE

DEPRESSION. THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW IS ENHANCING

CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE CONVECTION

IS ASYMMETRIC ENOUGH TO PERHAPS CAUSE THE CENTER TO JUMP OR REFORM

TO THE NORTH OR EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. APART FROM THIS...A

GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE

MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE

SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS AND TURNS MORE WESTWARD WITH THE

LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE RIGHT

EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSE TO THE ECMWF...EARLY BUT THEN

FAVORS THE LEFT-LEANING GFS/GFDL/HWRF SOLUTION LATE IN THE FORECAST

PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE

CYCLONE'S CENTER...AND THE CURRENT LIMITED CENTRAL ORGANIZATION OF

THE SYSTEM ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE

UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION...WHICH

WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS

COOLER WATERS IN 36-48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD

AGREEMENT ON ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

FOLLOWS SUIT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.8N 113.8W 30 KT

12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.8N 115.0W 35 KT

24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.4N 117.0W 40 KT

36HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 119.3W 40 KT

48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 122.0W 35 KT

72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W 30 KT

96HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 20/0000Z 21.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

NNNN

[Somerset Squall]

05E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dolores, with an intensity now at 35kts. Convection has been explosive near the LLC of Dolores, and the system has further consolidated since this morning. Dolores is currently moving northwestwards along the southwestern periphery of a ridge over Mexico. This motion is expected to continue for at least the next 24hrs. Thereafter, as Dolores reaches cooler waters and begins to weaken, she will veer west as she shallower storm/depression feels the influence of a low level easterly steering flow. Dolores has 24hrs in which to strengthen, but major intensity gains are not expected due to the size of the storm and also moderate shear impinging on the system.

[Cookie]

look at the size difference

[Snowly does it]

Thread title amended to TS Dolores

[Cookie]

thanks very much

[Cookie]

its not looking great so far today

MIATCDEP5 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009

200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

THE LOW LEVEL-CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST

TO SOUTHEAST AND IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A DISORGANIZED

SURFACE CIRCULATION WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FIND EVEN USING THE

AMBIGUITIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION

BUT THE CONVECTION IS VANISHING AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE ESTIMATES

ARE ASSUMING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COLLOCATED WITH THE

MID-LEVEL AND THE T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SAME AS

00 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS BUT THIS COULD BE

GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION. BECAUSE A PORTION

OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER...NO SIGNIFICANT

CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY. THEREAFTER...DOLORES IS

FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER

WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE

INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. DOLORES APPEARS TO BE MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE BIT FASTER AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN

PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE

WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY

WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS DOLORES WEAKENS TO A REMNANT

LOW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS KEEPING THE

CYCLONE OR THE LOW ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...BUT THE

MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGER THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOLLOWING THE

GFDL/HWRF PAIR AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 18.2N 119.1W 45 KT

12HR VT 16/1800Z 19.5N 121.2W 45 KT

24HR VT 17/0600Z 21.0N 124.2W 40 KT

36HR VT 17/1800Z 22.0N 127.0W 35 KT

48HR VT 18/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W 30 KT

72HR VT 19/0600Z 24.5N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 20/0600Z 25.5N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 21/0600Z 26.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Somerset Squall]

After peaking at 45kts, Dolores has lost almost all of her convection today, as the storm accelerates northwestwards over much colder waters. Dolores will continue to weaken as convection struggles to reform due to the lack of energy for the system. If convection doesn't soon make a comeback, Dolores could well be declared a remnant low later today.

[Somerset Squall]

Dolores remains largely convection free, and thus is downgraded to a 25kt tropical depression. Unless convection makes a comeback, which is unlikely over the cool waters, Dolores will very soon become a remnant low.

[Cookie]

another one looks to have bitten the dust

Downgraded to Tropical Depression

021

WTPZ45 KNHC 162034

TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009

200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

DOLORES HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 1330 UTC...AND

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE

CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT IF SIGNIFICANT

DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-FIRE...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY NOW THAT

THE CYCLONE IS OVER WATERS OF AROUND 24C.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16...AND THE TRACK REASONING

REMAINS UNCHANGED. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND DECREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE

INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION.

MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN 48 AND

72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. HOWEVER...

THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE SOONER...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS

MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.3N 122.7W 25 KT

12HR VT 17/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

24HR VT 17/1800Z 21.4N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

36HR VT 18/0600Z 22.3N 130.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

48HR VT 18/1800Z 22.9N 133.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

72HR VT 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Cookie]

Last Advisory

717

WTPZ45 KNHC 170232

TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009

800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009

THERE ARE ONLY SOME PUNY CELLS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF

DOLORES. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASING BELOW 24C...NO

SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AND THIS

SYSTEM IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. A GENERAL

WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF DOLORES IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION...

WHICH MOST MODELS SHOW HAPPENING IN ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DOLORES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER

AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.6N 124.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.4N 126.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.4N 129.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

36HR VT 18/1200Z 22.3N 131.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

48HR VT 19/0000Z 23.5N 134.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

72HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE