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Typhoon Molave


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Tropical Depression 07W has formed just to the east of Luzon. Initial intensity is 25kts. 07W is in an environment of low shear, good outflow and high sea temperatures. This should allow the system to intensify into a tropical storm as it moves northwestward along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast. JTWC are prediciting a peak of 35kts, but I think this could well end up a little stronger than that provided the system doesn't interact too much with Luzon and tightens it's inner core which is currently quite broad and sprawling. In a day or so, 07W is forecast to veer west as the steering ridge digs in to the north. This could well mean that Southern China will see a landfall from 07W though this is not certain yet. Hong Kong currently looks to be in the firing line, but the models are offering a range of scenarios (which is common for newly developed TC's) and Taiwan definitely need to keep an eye on this too.

    post-1820-1247680379_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    TD07W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Molave, with intensity now at 35kts. Convection has expanded a lot over the last 12hrs, and banding features are beginning to form, particularly in the eastern quadrant of the storm. Molave is over warm waters and low shear so further intensification is likely. JTWC are forecasting a peak of 40kts but I still think this is too low as Molave is really becoming well organised now and conditions should remain favourable for the next 48hrs until shear increases as the storm nears Hong Kong. Molave is a large, moisture laden system so needs to be closely watched for flooding.

    post-1820-1247766522_thumb.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    As I suspected, JTWC were punting too low for Molave's intensity, and the system is now a 60kt tropical storm. There was a brief appearance of an eye like feature this morning but this has since been obscured by a developing central dense overcast. As Cookie says, Molave has the potential to become a typhoon within the next 12hrs. Equatorward outflow remained strong overnight and this morning which overcame moderate shear to allow for this intensification. Molave since has interacted with Luzon which has stopped the rapid intensification, however, conditions are favourable for the next 12hrs which should allow a little more strengthening- only a small increase in organisation will allow Molave to become a typhoon. After 12hrs, shear is expected to increase which will weaken Molave prior to landfall east of Hong Kong. As Cookie points out, models are in good agreement on the future track of Molave as the storm veers towards the west as the subtropical ridge extends to the west blocking any further northwesterly motion. Southeastern China need to prepare for at least a strong tropical storm making landfall in about 24hrs time, and possibly even a minimal typhoon depending on what Molave does in the next 12hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    Molave has become a 65kt, cat 1 typhoon. Convection continues wrap around the centre and an eye emerged earlier this afternoon though it has now become cloud obscured. Molave is right on the coast of China now and will cross the coast within the next 3 hours. Rapid weakening will then commence as Molave moves just north of Hong Kong. Torrential rains and high winds are already spreading inland, and though the wind will ease quite quickly, the rain may continue beyond 24hrs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Not all that surprising it was upgraded, an eye is quite obvious on the radar and Vis imagery over the last 24hrs with quite a potent looking southern eyewall, whilst the northern eyewall suffering from the dry air coming off China. System is pretty much making landfall now just to the east of Hong Kong. Strong winds will be an issue, esp in the eyewall. Also even if the system does weaken quite rapidly flooding rains should be an issue though the northern side isn't that wet compared to the southern side.

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

    As expected for a tropical cyclone moving over land, Molave has become very disorganised over the last 6hrs in particular, and intensity has fell to 30kts. However, there is still a lot of remnant moisture providing some very heavy rains spreading quickly west along Southern China.

    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/...nt_11731329.htm

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    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    video already online from this typhoon

    Cool! Thanks for posting that one Cookie. Can see that a few brave weather nuts were out to get a feel for it. Almost laughed at that guy with the umbrella :rolleyes:

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