Thursday / Friday Storm Discussion

[Harry]

All seems to be going to plan atm.

Remember this is going to be a dual attack with the 1st attack showing its hand down in Devon and Cornwall at present. The 2nd wave will initiate over in Northern France later this afternoon and move NE Towards SW Germany and Benelux. (As shown on yesterdays models of a split in the Rainbands) It is the 2nd wave the BBC Will NOT Mention at the moment as it has not even initiated yet, but all the models have a handle on this and it is wether it can clip the South East as it trundles North East. Looks like the Rainbands merge further North around the Wash tomorrow before the Wrap around gives massive Totals in the NE & Scotland. As the Low deepens tomorrow expect more showers and storms across the whole of England and Wales.

Paul S

Unless I am reading it wrong - that doesn't sound so promising

This has 'fortnight ago' smacked all over it - a big gap between the West, and East Kent/Southend area...oh well, will wait patiently to see what comes of it all

Edited July 16, 2009 by Harry

[Lynxus]

Looks like that first band is moving north too far west for anything good here.

The stuff later will also miss here.

I have a feeling i will be in the middle of all the fun.

Ah well.

Just gonna have to keep an eye on it all again and see what happens

[Wynn D Woo]

Yep same old same old Lynxus. We can only hope that a bit of local heating can spark off some thing heavy over us.

[Coast]

Can I just ask, before this gets lost in an orgy of dummy spitting and moaning, that we all keep cool heads this afternoon/tonight and understand that it may possibly not reach us in the SE despite the current good indications. Remember how many times we have been staring at radar screens while the French get mega storms and we get drizzle?

I certainly have my fingers crossed and am prepared to be Mr Sherman's bodyguard tonight but I won't get upset if we miss out as mother nature has a way of foolin' with us and we don't want tears before bedtime (or after it too!!).

Anyway, the thrill of the chase is the expectation, isn't it???

[ItIsGee]

I feel I am too far north to be getting anything interesting, although METO have an advisory for MAnchester and the area. What are the probabilities?

Please someone tell me we ar getting the storm that we got a few years back! Man that thing was Huge!

[SalopWatcher]

Agree with the above, I might not get storms today but as some one that loves them, I think this thread provides a good window on the rest of the UK and the action else where.... (Who is it with the HD camcorder, that fotage the other day was ace!), and certinly never begrudge anyone else getting lucky with storms today... I dont really understand the people that do.

Sorry to have gone off topic.

Wonder if the first batch might effect us here as it moves north from the South West, and I certinly think we will get a fair bit of rain over the next 24 hours.

[cjwardy]

Can I just ask, before this gets lost in an orgy of dummy spitting and moaning, that we all keep cool heads this afternoon/tonight and understand that it may possibly not reach us in the SE despite the current good indications. Remember how many times we have been staring at radar screens while the French get mega storms and we get drizzle?

I certainly have my fingers crossed and am prepared to be Mr Sherman's bodyguard tonight but I won't get upset if we miss out as mother nature has a way of foolin' with us and we don't want tears before bedtime (or after it too!!).

Anyway, the thrill of the chase is the expectation, isn't it???

X2

[anvilhead]

who is chasing tonight by the way?

sam

[JRMcLeod]

Just wondering what the possibility (if any), there is of activity in Aberdeenshire from the forecasted low. I may be a bit greedy regarding this as we have had 3 days of storms but any info on timescales and likleyhood would be fantastic...

[Harry]

Can I just ask, before this gets lost in an orgy of dummy spitting and moaning, that we all keep cool heads this afternoon/tonight and understand that it may possibly not reach us in the SE despite the current good indications. Remember how many times we have been staring at radar screens while the French get mega storms and we get drizzle?

I certainly have my fingers crossed and am prepared to be Mr Sherman's bodyguard tonight but I won't get upset if we miss out as mother nature has a way of foolin' with us and we don't want tears before bedtime (or after it too!!).

Anyway, the thrill of the chase is the expectation, isn't it???

Oh couldn't agree more! We have had times this year where thunderstorms weren't forecast and we ended up being blessed

I have a feeling we won't get much tonight - just a gut feeling which I hope I am wrong about. That doesn't mean other places won't! I have a feeling the extreme E of Kent will fair well, along with central and eastern areas of EA before the NE in particular gets an absolute thumping. I can't remember which chart it was, but one showed the gap across London and surrounding areas that Paul S mentioned! I am fully expecting that kind of scenario - so there shouldn't be much moaning coming from me! The fact that neilsouth is reporting Acas and quite clearly around here that is not the case, already shows that scenario beginning to unfold.

[SteveB]

Looks like that first band is moving north too far west for anything good here.

The stuff later will also miss here.

I have a feeling i will be in the middle of all the fun.

Ah well.

Just gonna have to keep an eye on it all again and see what happens

I think we will be ok around here, with the heavy stuff effect the East and North East.

I will make a prediction, and go for a total of 14.6mm for my area by the end of play.

Edited July 16, 2009 by SteveB

[Tucco]

GFS 06Z still wants develop the heaviest rain across N England into Friday Morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs273.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs303.gif

Low few mb lower than 00z run

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[Lewis]

GFS 06Z still wants develop the heaviest rain across N England into Friday Morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs273.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs303.gif

Low few mb lower than 00z run

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Blimey! in that case sand bags at the ready!!

[peterf]

looks like i need to take some evasive action this time.this has got 15 days ago written all over it.

time to move things to higher ground me thinks.

[tornadomanuk]

Well the rain has now just reached here, and heavy at that too. Plenty of precipitation out in the Atlantic with streams of rain reaching out from the South West. Once this area of rain has moved off to the East there are signs that some heavy/thundery showers could develop tomorrow down this way.

[gpspete]

latest sat view

[WS Evolution]

Blimey! in that case sand bags at the ready!!

Met office saying 30% risk of 100mm or more locally over higher ground for E Riding of Yorkshire, Kingston upon Hull, N Yorkshire and York.

There is a high risk of severe weather affecting northeast England and parts of southeast Scotland during Friday, Friday night and early Saturday. Persistent and sometimes heavy rain is expected, giving totals of between 50 and 70mm in many areas with a 30% risk of 100mm or more locally over higher ground. The heavy rain could lead to flooding in some areas and cause disruption to outdoor events and transport networks.

[bodhimander]

Hi all,

Worthing = Altocumulus, 23.4 C and wind direction NE/NNE. Feels humid.

Let's hope for some more imports tonight on the south coast!

[Harry]

Hmm - a slight downgrade on the previous GFS charts, with some hint of a push E!!

Having said that, the action hasn't even begun yet across France so all still to play for.

[cobbettp]

Hmm - a slight downgrade on the previous GFS charts, with some hint of a push E!!

Having said that, the action hasn't even begun yet across France so all still to play for.

Okay well we will just have to see wot happens later

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think the majority of the thundery potential will be just to the east of the UK. Not to rule out a thundery element to the heavy rain area though by any means.

[Coast]

Latest satellite had MCS off the Welsh coast?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think the majority of the thundery potential will be just to the east of the UK. Not to rule out a thundery element to the heavy rain area though by any means

Sorry - me and my echo!

Edited July 16, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[cjwardy]

Met Office have no warnings in place for the SE on Friday now!

Where does the low look as though it will track? There seem to be some mixed forecasts at the moment

[flagpole]

Ooo I didn't realise there was thundery potential with this too! I should check in here more often. I'm guessing I am pretty much in the firing line then? Super