Thursday / Friday Storm Discussion

[Wynn D Woo]

Going by the radar it looks like we are going to miss the worst of it again - torrential downpours seem to always go left or right of here - nothing head on. I will be surprised if we get even 10 -15 mm let alone get near a possible 50mm

[sunny scunny]

According to my local forecast i'll see a few hours of moderate rain overnight. BIG DEAL

[dogs32]

the rain and clouds I was watching down South did look like very heavy torrentail showers forming..

The type you normally get with Thunder....

From Bigbury Bay there were towers shooting up even though there wasnt any sun.

Around 7.30am this morning..

Then on to Kingsbridge I saw clouds that looked dark enough for a TS...with scud shooting up..

Reminded me of the clouds in USA...Then got some brief heavy rain..

It was like this from South Devon all the way up to South Bristol....

On and OFF very heavy rain..

Here in the Dry Pan Handle we have some dark clouds building from our South..with the odd spit of rain

[londonsnow]

Does look rather nasty for the southwest in the next few hours, a very lurid radar! According to the bbc lunchtime output the northeast looks set for a deluge. the TV news crews are probably already planning a trip to York and the environs. as for London and the SE it's looking interesting overnight, a reasonable chance of something special. what's the betting that the north circular will flood and the tube network collapses. Again

[kold weather]

Indeed Harry the SW does need to be watched, frontal system still looks very potent at the moment and I think the 40MM mentioned locally seem quite easy to make, esp given some areas are already at 15-20MM in Cornwall and some parts of Devon. So when all is said and done 50MM seems quite possible locally.

Should be noted the NW NMM doesn't actually have quite as much rain as some models suggest in the NE as the model weakens the system earlier...however the UKMO and the GFS still suggesting a very large amount of rainfall in the NE, as has been said 70-100MM would be quite makeable if these models are right.

Edited July 16, 2009 by kold weather

[Lynxus]

the rain and clouds I was watching down South did look like very heavy torrentail showers forming..

The type you normally get with Thunder....

From Bigbury Bay there were towers shooting up even though there wasnt any sun.

Around 7.30am this morning..

Then on to Kingsbridge I saw clouds that looked dark enough for a TS...with scud shooting up..

Reminded me of the clouds in USA...Then got some brief heavy rain..

It was like this from South Devon all the way up to South Bristol....

On and OFF very heavy rain..

Here in the Dry Pan Handle we have some dark clouds building from our South..with the odd spit of rain

Its looking good.

Looking at the radar loop you can see a MASSIVE amount of rain off the soutwest coast heading in this sort of direction.

Im hoping it stays just as heavy.

[dogs32]

Carol Humdinger said between 2-4 inches of rain..

thats it then

game over

[Lynxus]

Carol Humdinger said between 2-4 inches of rain..

thats it then

game over

lol 2 to 4 inches!

humm.

would be fun to watch, however i dont think ill ever see that.

[Mike Storm]

Well the humidity is certainly going up , far more humid than earlier today... Looking good so far

I agree, it is definately more humid than earlier...

[kold weather]

Its looking good.

Looking at the radar loop you can see a MASSIVE amount of rain off the soutwest coast heading in this sort of direction.

Im hoping it stays just as heavy.

Yep looks like its throwing down 10-15MM an hour which is a pretty decent rate, so you can see why there is a need for warning of 40MM in the SW in the next 3 hours.

[dave48]

Not really sure what to make of tonight here, i'm sure we will see some heavy rain of some description but I suppose we will just have to wait and see if we get anything electrical this far west, currently in Bath.

[dogs32]

lol 2 to 4 inches!

humm.

would be fun to watch, however i dont think ill ever see that.

lol......you did in the floods.but i think that WAS 8 inches....correct me if Im wrong

[Harry]

2 to 4 inches is very excessive rainfall - I think judging by the radar and how big the mass actually is, those figures are quite conceivable.

As for the S/SE regarding storm imports - could well be a close one.

As per the comments regarding humidity - have to agree, humidity certainly starting to creep up! Anyone who has a clear-ish sky, just take a peak at two things - 1. The speed at which the high level clouds are speeding along (the jet I'd imagine) but also 2. The lower level Cu clouds which are now appearing to swing slightly more W as time goes on - the shear could well be very good later on

Still all very quiet on the French side too - we are slowly but surely on the count down towards launch

Edited July 16, 2009 by Harry

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Latest interactive forecast shows a band of rain/showers moving NE'wards through the SE region this evening but shows any storm development just over NE France and moving into Benelux rather than us. The emphasis continues to be on the huge rainfall in the SW and also for tomorrow in the NE.

Edited July 16, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Wilxy]

Im not likeing this at all i sware the air tattoo will be called off for flooding if what u peoples are saying is right.

[Lynxus]

lol......you did in the floods.but i think that WAS 8 inches....correct me if Im wrong

Oh really?

Ah screwit then, We can cope.

Bring it on..

I have a dingy to jump into if needed

I bet we only end up with drizzle anyway

Edited July 16, 2009 by Lynxus

[peterf]

thunder and lightening here with heavy rain.

[Cloud 10]

Just had a crack of thunder here,quite close as well which i wasn't expecting.

[peterf]

Just had a crack of thunder here,quite close as well which i wasn't expecting.

it's heading your way.

[kold weather]

Latest interactive forecast shows a band of rain/showers moving NE'wards through the SE region this evening but shows any storm development just over NE France and moving into Benelux rather than us. The emphasis continues to be on the huge rainfall in the SW and also for tomorrow in the NE.

Its a very close call for the SE. The UKMO isn't nearly as keen on bringing in the thundery weather (though it does have some storms its not the large powerful MCS other models have) compared to quite a few other models but we shall have to wait and see in that respect. Regardless the main attention will be the SW for the enxt few hours anyway.

I suspect the next 3-6hrs the SW wil lhave the main attention, from 6-15 hours will shift to the SE and the imports (which still IMO look more then likely to come up) and then after that attention surely shifts to the NE where flooding is a real concern.

Harry, instability is rapidly increasing over N.France right now, cap starting to be eroded as the front moves closer. Should see things getting going between 5-6pm.

Edited July 16, 2009 by kold weather

[peterf]

torrential rain here now.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Its a very close call for the SE. The UKMO isn't nearly as keen on bringing in the thundery weather (though it does have some storms its not the large powerful MCS other models have) compared to quite a few other models but we shall have to wait and see in that respect. Regardless the main attention will be the SW for the enxt few hours anyway.

I suspect the next 3-6hrs the SW wil lhave the main attention, from 6-15 hours will shift to the SE and the imports (which still IMO look more then likely to come up) and then after that attention surely shifts to the NE where flooding is a real concern.

Harry, instability is rapidly increasing over N.France right now, cap starting to be eroded as the front moves closer. Should see things getting going between 5-6pm.

Good summary - agree with all that. I suspect storm activity, if it occurs, will be elevated, but could be some decent lightning to watch

[Harry]

Its a very close call for the SE. The UKMO isn't nearly as keen on bringing in the thundery weather (though it does have some storms its not the large powerful MCS other models have) compared to quite a few other models but we shall have to wait and see in that respect. Regardless the main attention will be the SW for the enxt few hours anyway.

I suspect the next 3-6hrs the SW wil lhave the main attention, from 6-15 hours will shift to the SE and the imports (which still IMO look more then likely to come up) and then after that attention surely shifts to the NE where flooding is a real concern.

Harry, instability is rapidly increasing over N.France right now, cap starting to be eroded as the front moves closer. Should see things getting going between 5-6pm.

Cheers KW - my fingers are well and truly crossed.

Clouds in the sky which look Acas'ish' lol - always a good sign!

[NL]

Just had a crack of thunder here,quite close as well which i wasn't expecting.

Been watching the developments on the radar and they're intensifying as they move North, not far from my location now

and i was just about to go and visit my father in hospital, might have to wait this one out..!!

[Lynxus]

Met office have updated their warning for today.

Looks like it has more of the south coast in the orange area.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...ings.html?day=2

However as thought, It does looks like its going to miss me and be eastwards.

Edited July 16, 2009 by Lynxus