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Thursday / Friday Storm Discussion


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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Dogs do you really think we have a chance here?

I personally cant see it, Radars show everything will be east . It looks like its moving east faster than its moving north.

Am i missing something?

I dont like to just rely on the meto warnings as they seem to be almost wrong every time.

-G

If not today then 2015 :lol:

Good chance I think....the nice deep white blob is where my eyes are at present...

Looks just like the storms over France in the summer months as they explode...

Kold a slight increase in sferics from that blob now as it expands

also with Meto they update in real time...a lot of the time as the day goes on the warnings will expand

meto update at 15.17

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
Getting very dark and thundery looking clouds to my north and to my east.

Indeed, very dark here in Bath, especially given the weak to moderate echoes from around this area.

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Posted
  • Location: Portlethen - Aberdeenshire
  • Location: Portlethen - Aberdeenshire
Wow - that rain heading towards the SW looks troublesome to say the least!

I think the immediate future, I'd be worried more about the SW than potential problems in the NE - Cornwall/Devon have had their fair share of horrific floods in the past (Boscastle anyone :lol: )

One other area that gives cause for concern IMO is Aberdeenshire - that Low as it hooks away throws a lot of precip very close to them! There has been consecutive days of torrential downpours and thunderstorms, including more expected today. Should any persistent precip run up there, it could get very dodgy IMO.

Currently here at the moment, growing increasingly warm - sun been out pretty much all day with variable amounts of cloud. Upper level clouds moving in from the SSW pretty lively, with lower level clouds moving very little. I think the humid air will start kicking in shortly :)

Loving this...Hope Aberdeenshire gets it...

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Looks like a heavy shower is about to pass over chelt.

Get quite humid all of a sudden.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

I suspect that Aberdeen region is going to get a decent amount of rain regardless of events further south. Not sure there will be a huge amount of instablity within the system by the time it gets that far north but the odd thundery area is possible I suppose.

Its the region just in front of the frontal system that needs to be watched closest for the SE. CAPE rapidly increasing still and the front is helping to decay the cap quite steadily.

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Posted
  • Location: Jarrow 28m asl
  • Location: Jarrow 28m asl

tomorrows rainfall totals look rather worrying for my area, hopefully there'll be some sort of thunder/lightning involved to spice up the endless rain like ahah :)

on that note, loud crack of thunder just heard :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Got dark,

Light drizzle now.

NO wind. Got humid

slow increase on netweather radar..

And IOW detector

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm

Guernsey weather shows this well.

screenshot.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Sorry got talking to a new customer who is the spit of Gok Wan!

Anyway, missed this little brick in todays 'wall of sound' coming out and I'm afraid it's not as positive as I had hoped:

98475.gif

Still got a way to go yet though.....

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Thunder in Tyne & Wear again..!! Soon to take the crown from the SE.. :lol: ..

Geordiesnow seems to be in prime location looks likely to be directly above

Pelaw/Gateshead in the next few minute

NW 5min radar... a must essential bit of kit for watching storms and snow...!!

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK

You know, the last time I saw a sky like that (below) prior to a band of rain, it hammered it down for several hours. It's looking good methinks. :lol:

Pic taken at 2:55pm BTW!

Phil.

post-8209-1247755007_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
tomorrows rainfall totals look rather worrying for my area, hopefully there'll be some sort of thunder/lightning involved to spice up the endless rain like ahah :)

on that note, loud crack of thunder just heard :)

Me mam apparantly saw a flash of lightning just above us and followed by the short crack of thunder, i didnt see it as i was watching the cricket. :lol:

Tomorrow's rainfall does looks concerning, even if the rain is at the moderate stage, its looks like it will be persistant so flooding looks possible, just got to wait and see what happens.

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Got dark,

Light drizzle now.

NO wind. Got humid

Guernsey weather shows this well.

screenshot.png

I think it must be the mass of cloud spiriling South of Cornwal that is getting active....

Hopefully this increases in size....so we just might have a bit of the cake for later :lol:

well one can only hope here in Nevada

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
You know, the last time I saw a sky like that (below) prior to a band of rain, it hammered it down for several hours. It's looking good methinks. :lol:

Pic taken at 2:55pm BTW!

Phil.

Thats what the sky was like 15 mins ago.

now we have moderate drizzle / rain

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Sorry got talking to a new customer who is the spit of Gok Wan!

Anyway, missed this little brick in todays 'wall of sound' coming out and I'm afraid it's not as positive as I had hoped:

98475.gif

Still got a way to go yet though.....

Oh no don't like the sound of that - reading that is like me trying to read Japanese - get the gist but nowt else lol.

Could you elaborate please Coast :lol:

Speaking of T-skew charts, where is VP lately? Been awfully quiet....is he on holiday?

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The storms in the NE of England seem to be joining up somewhat, could well see some places get 5-10mm from this little cluster alone and thats before we see the main fun and games tomorrow.

Coast, the instablity will increase more over the next 6 hours, forcing is coming in from the west which is what is meant to spark off the storms over France. There we are seeing the cap being eroded.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

I'd say, the pulse of rain across the SW just doesn't seem like wanting to stop - as soon as rain spreads North, more and even heavier rain builds in behind.

Also, few showers developing across SW parts of France, but nothing visible precip wise as yet across our focus zone across France.

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Posted
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme!
  • Location: Stanley, County Durham.
tomorrows rainfall totals look rather worrying for my area, hopefully there'll be some sort of thunder/lightning involved to spice up the endless rain like ahah :)

on that note, loud crack of thunder just heard :lol:

Still got heavy showers around here, with the odd rumble.

Looking forward to all this rain. I'm hoping for a trip to High Force waterfall on Saturday morning, could be impressive.

Not expecting any embedded storms but you never know :)

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey

Weather system covering the south west now livening up with some strong echoes appearing.

Skew T's across northern France look good, positive for the south east.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Could you elaborate please Coast :lol:

:) You need a clever person for that like Brick, Nick or John Holmes!!!!! I just look at the figures down the side and the comments and I see the figures aren't so good and the comments worse!

As a cheat, here are some keys to the data listed with the intensity of any storm bracketed:

Surface based CAPE 300 to 1000 (low) 1000 to 2500 (moderate) > 2500 (high)

Vertical Totals > 28 (high)

Cross Totals < 18 (low) 18 to 19 (moderate) => 20 (high)

Total-totals > 42( low) > 48 ( moderate) > 50 (high)

K-Index 20 to 25 (low) 26 to 35 (moderate) > 35 (high)

KO-Index > 6 (low) 2 to 6 (moderate) < 2 (high)

Surface based Lifted-Index 0 to -2 (low) -3 to -5 (moderate) < -5 (high)

S-Index < 39 (low) 40 to 46 (moderate) > 46 (high)

Showalter Stability Index > 2 (low) =< 2 (moderate)

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester

Interesting Estofex update - I'll paste the bit that caught my eye :lol: - looks like they're thinking the SE mcs will miss us though

'Further north, increasing ageostrophic low-level winds are expected to be associated with destabilization from northern France into southern England. Although the degree of destabilization is questionable given actual rather dry low-level air masses over most places, strong QG forcing and mostly neutral lapse rates may support deep convection in the evening hours. Every storm that roots to the boundary-layer will have a potential of producing strong tornadoes given around 10-12 m/s 0-1 km vertical wind shear. Clustering of storms may limit this potential. Additionally, excessive rain will likely occur due to the strong QG forcing'

I think ageostrophic low level winds are winds that react to a drop in pressure and fall straight into the low as aposed to circling round it, giving us backed low level winds..

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Just seen NL's post and all we had was a period of heavy rain and thats about it. Rain intenisty dropped quite a bit at around the moderate stage at the moment.

Does not seem to be much electrical activity with these clusters of showers at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

As you will know i tend to take the ukmo / beeb with a huge pinch of salt , they can't forecast storms very well at all(the other week for example).. If you want far more accurate storm forecasting stick to this forum !

The met/beeb are a joke as storms are concerned

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Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent

I just cant get excited about the rainy/stormy weather on its way. Something tells me the SE will just have a dull, drizzly day tomorrow and a few moderate bursts of rain over night.

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