Loss Of Arctic Sea Ice

[Methuselah]

Pete, I think you may find these interesting.

http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ResearchProjects/Hartmann%20and%20Wendler%202005.pdf

http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/The1976-78ClimateShift.htm

Having just skimmed them so-far jethro, I thnk I will. Thanks for the links. :ph34r:

[Gray-Wolf]

The one straw to clutch is that Arctic ice has been absent in the past, and it didn't result in global catastrophe or runaway warming. On the other hand it could easily produce a positive feedback on global warming over the short term...

I think the return from and ice free pole was pretty drastic for the critters that had moved into the region though lol.(Crocs from Ellesmere island, Hippo's in Trafalgar Sq)..........the fact that the region had enough time to allow the migration of such exotics would have me thinking that the process was a slow process and established over many thousands of years.

Is this what we think we are looking at today? I personally think that things are happening a tad faster than that this time around and ,yet again, can I remind folk that we've been messing around with things this time around???

As I've noted before we seem to take notice of 'event's on the 'ground' but not in the atmosphere.

We can see the acid lakes and the loss of the critters in them and demand action, we can see the last of the Indonesian rainforest's (and their unique eco-systems)and demand action, we can see dying reefs and the deserts they leave and demand action.

Yet when we watch the Narwhals beaching,Walrus's starving Polar Bears drowning in deep ocean we choose to deny it's occurring.

Why so ??

Maybe the pole is where atmosphere meets land (in terms of fugging our planet at least)? where what we have done in the polluting of our skies has the greatest (and most visible)impact on the land/sea and so the skeptics deny any issues that might highlight the problem and the folk who choose to pin their flags to that mast follow suit.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Pete, I think you may find these interesting.

http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ResearchProjects/Hartmann%20and%20Wendler%202005.pdf

http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/The1976-78ClimateShift.htm

Hi Jethro

Good links. I posted something re NAO set up compared to ENSO Perturbation cycle in the Climate change thread, very good correlation like this research.

BFTP

[WindWatcher]

Yet when we watch the Narwhals beaching,Walrus's starving Polar Bears drowning in deep ocean we choose to deny it's occurring.

Off topic, but do you have any recent information on these occurrences, I googled "Polar bears drowning" and can only find reports of 4 bears drowning after a storm in 2004? I would be interested to see some more recent research as clearly part of the reason we choose to deny is we don't know it is happening?

Cheers

Steve

[Iceberg]

The first of those is a good link

http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/The1976-78ClimateShift.htm

Lots of information as well ,nicely presented.

I'd also broadly agree with it in that Alaska suffered a climate step change with the changing of the PDO, I think this is really without question considering the closeness of Alaska to the PDO pacific.

I do think it starts to raise questionable links when it switches to global trends, the evidence of a new cooling trend that started in 98(and what seems to be the start of hte negative PDO according to this paper) is debatable at best and the climate shift that happened(as it happened over a 2 or 3 year period) doesn't really explain why global temps have increased for the 30 years since that period.

[Iceberg]

Looking at the other link and also past Alaskan temperatures from 1950-2009 you can see that alaska is really reliant on PDO and ENSO for it's temperature. For example the past La Nina years of 99 and 08 are the two lowest years for Alaskan temperature in the last 30 years. Thre response for El Nino isn't as strong, except that temps are high.

Another think to watch this autumn then to see whether or not we have broken from the previous 30 year warm cycle.

If with an El Nino we get low Alaskan temperatures then this would be evidence to support a break to a possible cooler cycle. Continued warmth with relation to years such as 2005 or 98 indicating support for continued warmth.

The PDO will be a factor as well, but that is currently the least negative it's been since the official switch to a negative PDO.

[Methuselah]

Looking at the other link and also past Alaskan temperatures from 1950-2009 you can see that alaska is really reliant on PDO and ENSO for it's temperature. For example the past La Nina years of 99 and 08 are the two lowest years for Alaskan temperature in the last 30 years. Thre response for El Nino isn't as strong, except that temps are high.Another think to watch this autumn then to see whether or not we have broken from the previous 30 year warm cycle.

If with an El Nino we get low Alaskan temperatures then this would be evidence to support a break to a possible cooler cycle. Continued warmth with relation to years such as 2005 or 98 indicating support for continued warmth.

The PDO will be a factor as well, but that is currently the least negative it's been since the official switch to a negative PDO.

That's interesting, Ice. It's as if (at least in the situation post 1976) the El Nino-generated northward movement of heat is now the norm, as if the system's natural impedance has been overcome? Would a protracted Solar minimum put things back as they were?

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it would be interesting to track the temp/salinity of the 'gap' in the Bering straights over the same period. If temp/salinity once sealed off the Arctic Basin it would be interesting to see if this barrier has been eroded away allowing the ingress of warm Pacific waters into that side of the basin.

If we think back to summer 05' we may remember the polynya behind the Canadian/Alaskan side of the straights which was obviously being fed by warm waters.Couple this with the retreats we have seen behind the Russian side of the straights and you can see that a good 1/2 of the polar Basin is/would be affected by increased inflow from the N.Pacific.

I read an article from the IPY which had the Dane's (I think) releasing a tracking device in the ice on the Russian side of the Basin to mimic an experiment that occurred in the 50's. They expected it to pop out into the N.Atlantic 36 months (or so) later (as had occurred in the 50's) only to have it pop out 14 months later!!! Either the currents running things have increased or the tracking device encountered a lot less ice on it's voyage (or both!!).

EDIT: perversely if there is now an increased inflow into the Arctic the cold waters that once drove the -ve PDO may now actually be flowing into the arctic and effectively warming it!!??? So an old -ve influence from further south becomes a +ve influence further north once the barriers there have been removed.

Edited August 3, 2009 by Gray-Wolf

[Kained]

Yet when we watch the Narwhals beaching,Walrus's starving Polar Bears drowning in deep ocean we choose to deny it's occurring.

I'd really like to see your evidence for Polar Bear drownings being on the increase?

As far as i knew they are very good swimmers and Ian Stirling ("Behavior". Polar Bears. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press 1988) cites them being seen up to 200 miles from land?

Edited August 4, 2009 by Kained

[WindWatcher]

Yet when we watch the Narwhals beaching,Walrus's starving Polar Bears drowning in deep ocean we choose to deny it's occurring.

Why so ??

Please could you reply with any recent reports to back up this statement. Myself and Kained have asked now. I am very interested in the physical impact of warming, but I feel that any impacts are diluted by unnecessary scaremongering, selecting popular animals, when there are very real and evident effects of warming without resorting to pictures of cuddly animals on an iceberg.

For example, The Great Barrier Reef has suffered a 20% reduction in growth of Porites species, and with the oceans acting as Co2 sink the future of many reefs is in the balance:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6652866.ece

Do you have any links, I am very interested in REAL effects.

Thanks in advance

Steve

[cyclonic happiness]

Please could you reply with any recent reports to back up this statement. Myself and Kained have asked now. I am very interested in the physical impact of warming, but I feel that any impacts are diluted by unnecessary scaremongering, selecting popular animals, when there are very real and evident effects of warming without resorting to pictures of cuddly animals on an iceberg.

For example, The Great Barrier Reef has suffered a 20% reduction in growth of Porites species, and with the oceans acting as Co2 sink the future of many reefs is in the balance:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6652866.ece

Do you have any links, I am very interested in REAL effects.

Thanks in advance

Steve

what I'd like to know is, why isn't anyone worried about the glaciers in Snowdonia melting and the langdale galcier in the lake district?

Oh wait?, that's right! we are still coming out of an ice age, of which we know next to nothing about.

I'm really sick and tired of people (and that's all there are, regardless of how intelligent they are), telling me how to think!

What is the point of mulling over all the little details when the biggest picture of all gets missed?

And the one most patronising things that can ever be said to the lay person is that "it's not that simple" , because that is the one quote that is almost always wrong!

(cue the "scientist" that says "well what about the other times?" )

Yours

Vexxed.com

[WindWatcher]

what I'd like to know is, why isn't anyone worried about the glaciers in Snowdonia melting and the langdale galcier in the lake district?

Oh wait?, that's right! we are still coming out of an ice age, of which we know next to nothing about.

I'm really sick and tired of people (and that's all there are, regardless of how intelligent they are), telling me how to think!

What is the point of mulling over all the little details when the biggest picture of all gets missed?

And the one most patronising things that can ever be said to the lay person is that "it's not that simple" , because that is the one quote that is almost always wrong!

(cue the "scientist" that says "well what about the other times?" )

Yours

Vexxed.com

I was trying to stay away from mentioning the debate on what is causing these changes, but it is so interlinked.

I also completely ignored the subject title , by mentioning coral reefs - apologies, I was just trying to emphasise a point, badly as it happens.

So to get back to the original question of mine relevant to the Arctic Ice...

I haven't seen a Narwhal beaching, a Walrus starving or a Polar Bear drowning in deep ocean, am I therefore denying it is happening?

If a man is alone in the forest, is he still wrong? - my wife knows the answer to that one!

Steve

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Recent_Arctic_Warming_Reverses_Millennia_Long_Cooling_Trend_999.html

This piece of research would prove very worrying (IMHO) if proven.It would suggest that GHG's are as potent as research shows but that their potential is being offset by overcoming a general cooling trend the planet is in the middle of. It also highlights that small solar fluctuations will lead to noticeable climatic changes over time.

[edveasey]

Yes saw the same article on the BBC website

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8236797.stm

I think it nicely highlights and adds to the evidence of human activity having a warming effect on the arctic

[Essan]

what I'd like to know is, why isn't anyone worried about the glaciers in Snowdonia melting and the langdale galcier in the lake district?

Oh wait?, that's right! we are still coming out of an ice age, of which we know next to nothing about.

Well actually the peak of the current interglacial was about 6,000 years ago and since then we've been in the Neoglacial which has seen average temperatures on a multi-century basis fall and glaciers in most parts of the world advance to beyond their mid Holocene levels.

The question is whether the current warming is just a natural blip in this gradual cooling, or a manmade one. But had this current warming not taking place we might well be speculating now on whether those growing permanent snow fields on Ben Nevis and in the cairngorms are big enough to be called glaciers yet ......

Based on Milankovitch Cycles though, the long term trends should be cooling in the Arctic and warming in the Antarctic.

[Solar Cycles]

http://www.terradail..._Trend_999.html

This piece of research would prove very worrying (IMHO) if proven.It would suggest that GHG's are as potent as research shows but that their potential is being offset by overcoming a general cooling trend the planet is in the middle of. It also highlights that small solar fluctuations will lead to noticeable climatic changes over time.

The very same cooling trends that climate models failed to predict , don't you mean GW!

[Thundery wintry showers]

This cooling trend refers to a cooling trend in the Arctic over the last 8,000 years caused by declining solar activity- nothing to do with the last 11 years (which, averaged globally, saw stagnant temperatures not cooling). It strongly suggests that something has been triggering the recent warming there, and that this "something" isn't solar activity.

I think it's pretty well established that the planet has been in a slow cooling trend over the last thousand years and probably much longer, but it doesn't stop short-term natural variability from producing brief periods of warming and cooling either side of the mean.

NAO/PDO phases and ocean currents, together with positive feedbacks from ice melt, have probably contributed more to the warming than greenhouse gases, so I don't think the articles putting the blame on GHGs are very well worded. However, the rise in global temperatures (which may well be assisted by GHGs) will certainly have contributed to the degree of warming in the Arctic, so the link with GHGs should not be dismissed either.

[Rainy]

Has anyone else seen this illustrated lecture? We do tend to take satellites for granted. Amazing what they have shown us.

Apologies if this link has been given here before.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://assets.wwf.org.nz/downloads/wwf_arctic_feedbacks_report.pdf

A nice light read for these cool autumn evenings.