Convective/storm Discussion Thurs 23>>>>>>>>>

[Tony Gilbert]

10.40pm Weds

An early discussion is started regarding the potential for severe thunderstorms across the UK on Friday 24th July.

Based on the extended model output we could well have a number of significant conditions develop simultaneously to produce the most prolific risk of severe weather that we have seen for many months. Certainly one to keep a close eye on.

On a personal note, if the models remain conducive then I will probably take the day off to attempt a chase out of necessity.

[Neilsouth]

10.40pm Weds

An early discussion is started regarding the potential for severe thunderstorms across the UK on Friday 24th July.

ahh interesting, are we expecting the same level of storm activity as we did that day when severe storms hit parts of essex/london?. Large hail stones e.t.c

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Will it be the usual suspects i.e. the east that gets most of the action?

[gpspete]

looks they are finding it hard to sleep in benlux countries tonight see good link to storm activity http://www.strikesta.../sslt/sslt.html

may be usefull thursday/friday

Edited July 22, 2009 by gpspete

[azores92]

Will it be the usual suspects i.e. the east that gets most of the action?

im sorry, there dont seem to be many discussions on weather forums relating to friday, and to be honest, i cant see where severe thunderstorms are likely to develop, can someone show me this? many thanks, azores92

[Marcus_surfer]

I wouldnt say severe storms, maybe the odd thunderstorm around on Friday, and there will be some very heavy rain around, not good news again!

[Coast]

ESTOFEX are still showing an area over Ireland, a little bit of NW England and a little bit of Scotland.

UKASF are braver with an area that covers all of Ireland and the UK excluding East Anglia and the South East corner:

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-07-22 19:56:00

Valid: 2009-07-23 00:00:00 - 2009-07-23 23:59:00

Regions Affected

Scotland, Northern England, Midlands, Wales, Southwest England, Northern Ireland, Ireland ( all of the UK is under a WATCH )

Synopsis

An elongated area of LOW pressure situated to the north of/over Northern Scotland will be the dominant feature across the UK on Thursday. Various troughs, fronts and convergence zones within the anticyclonic flow of the LOW pressure will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms. It is thought that some of the showers will turn increasingly electrical during the afternoon and evening hours, with the most favourable conditions over the southern half of Ireland. Due to the nature of the Polar Maritime airmass, hail can be expected in quite a few showers, with a slight risk of a convergence-type tornado. Slow moving torrential downpours may be responsible for local flash flooding, particularly in those areas under convergence zones with numerous showers persisting one-after-another. A surface LOW is expected to develop over Benelux during the afternoon hours, which, combined with the humid airmass, is likely to develop scattered thunderstorms there which may cluster in the evening hours. Models are still in disagreement to the exact positioning of such storms, and there exists a low risk (less than 25%) of storms possibly affecting the far Southeast. This will need to be monitored during Thursday.

TORRO have yesterday evenings warning for Scotland still up (they seem to be issuing forecasts two or three hours beforehand now, not on the night before}.

Here come the huge charts for today!!!!!

Personally, I think the action will be confined to parts of Ireland (already an MCS feature on the IR satellite) and possibly a bit of the Cumbrian coast today. The threat to the SE is too remote at the moment but worth keeping half an eye on the radar and detectors early afternoon - but don't be disappointed in this corner!!!

An early discussion is started regarding the potential for severe thunderstorms across the UK on Friday 24th July.

A little peep at Friday then:

Edited July 23, 2009 by Coast

[Mike Storm]

Wow thanks for the BIG charts

[Harry]

Oooh this all looks exciting - not liking too much the dip in CAPE levels across the SE corner

But then again, that has been the situation for our area for most of this year, but we have still seen some good storms!

Would try and take half day, though I did that lastminute.com on Monday (not for storm chase reasons obviously, as there were none) so dont want to take the Michael.

What are people's thoughts on the chances of a SE Kent clipper scenario for this evening? With nothing planned I am slightly tempted for the first time in my life to get a boogy on down towards Dymchurch/Hythe area in the hope of seeing some action. Obviously, most charts are suggested this will stay away over the continent, but far stranger things have happened....thoughts?

[Coast]

What are people's thoughts on the chances of a SE Kent clipper scenario for this evening? With nothing planned I am slightly tempted for the first time in my life to get a boogy on down towards Dymchurch/Hythe area in the hope of seeing some action. Obviously, most charts are suggested this will stay away over the continent, but far stranger things have happened....thoughts?

Slim chance I'd say Harry, but a chance none the less. I don't think we'll even begin to know for sure until at least lunchtime, I'd wait until the 12Z Skew T's are out and the detectors have woken up in France.

Edit: Just seen the charts and images are back to reduced size!!!!!

Edited July 23, 2009 by Coast

[Methuselah]

Things here look very similar to this time last week. There's rapid convection, very little surface wind, and the clouds are travelling NNE. So, assuming that local topography plays its part as I hope, convergence could develop sometime in the afternoon??

[dogs32]

10.40pm Weds

An early discussion is started regarding the potential for severe thunderstorms across the UK on Friday 24th July.

Based on the extended model output we could well have a number of significant conditions develop simultaneously to produce the most prolific risk of severe weather that we have seen for many months. Certainly one to keep a close eye on.

On a personal note, if the models remain conducive then I will probably take the day off to attempt a chase out of necessity.

thanks for the heads up Tony..

now Im getting interested....

Better brush the cobweb's off my camera's

[Methuselah]

Just on cue, the first anvil has turned-up about 20 miles-or-so away to the ENE...

[StormChaser]

Got some lovely looking columbus clouds bubbling up all over the place here, and the temp is quite warm not sure what it is. Dark clouds building up wondering if Im likely to see anything today, as Im off atm.

[Lynxus]

Giggity!

Well well, here we go again lol.

Theres plenty of showers now developing in the west. Im not expecting anything in the way of thunder today however tomorrow is starting to look interesting.

Anyone fancy taking a wild stab in the dark on where storms could be tomorrow?

Cheers

G

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Belguim and Germany. Sorry couldn't resist ...

[SteveB]

Giggity!

Well well, here we go again lol.

Theres plenty of showers now developing in the west. Im not expecting anything in the way of thunder today however tomorrow is starting to look interesting.

Anyone fancy taking a wild stab in the dark on where storms could be tomorrow?

Cheers

G

Anywhere but here most probably.

[sunny scunny]

Not much chance of anything happening here today,but tomorrow looks better.

[azores92]

definite cell heading this way, which would make the second downpour of the day.

[Kookylou]

ooooo look at this new layout!!

well am hoping for friday as ever - been a miserable week here tho. rain, wind, more rain!!

[Harry]

Wow - France/Switzerland gone BOOM!

Some interesting cells to the NW of France at the moment - which on current track scrape the Sussex/Kent! Worth keeping an eye on. Will be interesting to see how close the fronts to the S, which are triggering these storms, come to us.

[Andy Bown]

A good line of heavy showers/downpours developing over Somerset & edging ENE through Dorset into Wiltshire then onto Berkshire. This line has been going since it first developed at around 09.30 and some of the showers have had approaching 100mm per hour rate at times.

Here in Westbury we're just catching the Northern edge of them, so only a few sharp showers so far, but there does appear to be a further line developing North of here. What this means for me is a great sky watching afternoon .

Tomorrow looks to be different with trough arriving in the early hours meaning showers around from the off rather than developing once daytime heating begins (as happened today). Another difference will be the more W'ly wind instead of WSW/SW, this should help a number of showers break out over the Bristol Channel & run along the M4 corridor unlike today.

[Intrepid]

A storm has just passed to the west of here, the sky was black and there was constant loud thunder but didnt get any of the rain from it. Sky still black to west and north so must be over Belfast now and can still here frequent thunder.

[SteveB]

A good line of heavy showers/downpours developing over Somerset & edging ENE through Dorset into Wiltshire then onto Berkshire. This line has been going since it first developed at around 09.30 and some of the showers have had approaching 100mm per hour rate at times.

Here in Westbury we're just catching the Northern edge of them, so only a few sharp showers so far, but there does appear to be a further line developing North of here. What this means for me is a great sky watching afternoon .

Tomorrow looks to be different with trough arriving in the early hours meaning showers around from the off rather than developing once daytime heating begins (as happened today). Another difference will be the more W'ly wind instead of WSW/SW, this should help a number of showers break out over the Bristol Channel & run along the M4 corridor unlike today.

Looks like I am to far West of these line of showers. I would imagine if you were under them, you would be getting a fair soaking.

[Intrepid]

Looks like this is coming back over us. Had constant thunder for an hour and a half now and just had a few flashes of lightning. moderate rain just started.

Edit: Huge raindrops coming down now with very loud thunder.

Edited July 23, 2009 by Intrepid