Convective/storm Discussion Thurs 23>>>>>>>>>

[maidstone weather]

Kaddy Lee-Preston on BBC South East Today's weather at 6.45 was quite insistent that there would be heavy rain and an element of thunderstorms tomorrow. I'll wait and reserve judgment until the morning, although things in the far East of Norfolk/Suffolk look potentially interesting.....

was that before or after she got a fly in her eye?

[shrike]

I saw no lightning today - seemed to be confined to the greater Belfast and County Down regions the real electric stuff. Some good cracks of thunder though. At the minute it is raining heavy I think that heavy stuff on radar is goin sink south east maybe clearing by 10pm. Some major flooding around though could cause traffic problems.

[dave48]

Just watching a great discrete Cb going up to my west, very fast development, will be electrical soon I would imagine. It looks very healthy. Keep an eye out Bristol.

Edit: The development of this cell is incredible, possibly the fastest growing cell I have ever seen. I think it probably would be legitimate to call it explosive, nothing to a big Cb in less than 15 minutes.

Edited July 23, 2009 by dave48

[StormChaser]

I had an inkling I thought I herd a long distance rumble of thunder this afternoon around, 3ish, but Im not quite sure(could of been a plane). Otherwise, I had plenty of heavy rain, nothing eles. However, I did have a nice clear spot, just enough time to take my daughter out to the park before the rain came in again. Alas, still no thunderstorms.

[Lynxus]

fyi: looks like a small CB , possibly 2 to my west. (far west)

[tornadomanuk]

Following on from the suspected FC sighting near to Yeovilton, a small FC was pictured nr to Bridgwater (Catcott/Woolavington) earlier on today - picture was shown on Points West.

Edited July 23, 2009 by tornadomanuk

[dallas]

There is a fearsome looking wall of cloud drifting over the QE2 bridge toward essex, not sure if it will liven up though

[pyrotech]

Always the same in Cardiff ........Close but not close enough

All winter we ALMOST had snow

All summer we Almost have a Thunderstorm

Just model watching with fingers crossed for tomorrow.

[StormChaser]

Sorry for slight change of subject anyone eles having problems with the metoffice website seems to be down atm?

[Costa Del Fal]

I think tomorrow is definatelymostly a day for the Midlands, E Anglia and much of Southern England tomorrow and perhaps East Wales for a time.

I would say showers/storms will begin to fade away from SW parts, Wales and perhaps the West Midlands by about 2pm ish While further East until late afternoon.

The BBC Maps make tomorrow look like not much fuss but i think there will be plenty on. I think SW England and parts of Wales will definately act as a breeding ground tomorrow so perhaps not seeing much in the way of storms. The best storms of the day i think will be somewhere in the East Midlands or East Anglia, particularly Suffolk.

Sorry for slight change of subject anyone eles having problems with the metoffice website seems to be down atm?

No problems here.

[Tn9]

Always the same in Cardiff ........Close but not close enough

All winter we ALMOST had snow

All summer we Almost have a Thunderstorm

Just model watching with fingers crossed for tomorrow.

Know the feeling well and when you do get one its always fiercer everywhere else

[dave48]

I think tomorrow is definatelymostly a day for the Midlands, E Anglia and much of Southern England tomorrow and perhaps East Wales for a time.

I would say showers/storms will begin to fade away from SW parts, Wales and perhaps the West Midlands by about 2pm ish While further East until late afternoon.

The BBC Maps make tomorrow look like not much fuss but i think there will be plenty on. I think SW England and parts of Wales will definately act as a breeding ground tomorrow so perhaps not seeing much in the way of storms. The best storms of the day i think will be somewhere in the East Midlands or East Anglia, particularly Suffolk.

No problems here.

Yeah, I would agree with that, easy forecast for tomorrow.

I think it is worth pointing out that the showers will be very widespread and a few people in the less favourable areas will still get something but the areas identified above should see some good storms and maybe a few multicells.

[Flash Elvis]

Can aybody confirm if there is a Storm near Heathrow Airport as the planes are stacking over my house at the moment, and there are very dark clouds in that direction

[dave48]

Right, so ESTOFEX have issued there storm risks for tomorrow with a swathe of the UK included in it. One interesting point they make is regarding the organisation of the storms, DL shear of 10-15 m/s and cold air aloft may help to produce large hail in the stronger storms and form a few multicell thunderstorms. EA has some steep lapses and some nice CAPE values during the afternoon, coupled with the trough, should trigger things off when maxmimum CAPE is available.

This is sounding more and more like June 15 I think, when the storms increased in intensity as they reached EA with the help of cold dry air aloft. If I were chasing tomorrow I'd start around the E Mids region to see how things pan out. W Mids and SW is likely to be the 'breeding ground' tomorrow so if I don't see a storm tomorrow, certainly won't be surprised.

It looks good tomorrow, as I have already mentioned I do expect some storms further west, but as you say, the big stuff, further east.

[dogs32]

we are regulary the breed ground here....Its about time we got the snip here..

BBC dont look that positive about tomorrow...

As I type Alex Deacon doesn't look impressed about tomorrow on TV.

ODD ONE OR TWO...heavy one

Edited July 23, 2009 by dogs32

[Costa Del Fal]

Met Office Invent page shows pretty much no showers now tomorrow here.

[maidstone weather]

Met Office Invent page shows pretty much no showers now tomorrow here.

any idea how often/when they update that section?

[azores92]

any idea how often/when they update that section?

haha too many to count, not worth paying much attention to it.

[Costa Del Fal]

any idea how often/when they update that section?

Not sure buts its different to when i looked a few hours ago.

[maidstone weather]

oh dear Kaddy, got a fly in your eye?

http://news.bbc.co.u...ge=10&region=uk (01:52 onwards)

Looking forward to tomorrow - we (West Kent) seem to do better from westerly storms than from southerly, northerly or easterlies. Not sure why but It's a trend I've noticed so I've got my fingers, toes and everything else crossed

Edited July 23, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Jane Louise]

Fingers crossed for us lot in Glos tomorrow, but I bet we don't see anything as usual lol.

[Nick F]

Finally managed to find time this week to do a forecast ... Netweather storm forecast for tomorrow:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Widespread scattered storms developing over England, Wales, Ireland and Sern Scotland tomorrow, small risk of large hail towards SE England and E Anglia - where we have quite a bit of CAPE and stronger upper winds in afternoon/early evening.

[Geordiesnow]

I'm definitely preparing myself for the worst tomorrow, that way should a storm come, I'll be happy, if it should not, I won't be disappointed as much as if I was expecting one.

And if everyone thinks like this, then there should be no moaning in this thread tomorrow but no doubt we will see some when storms don't hit there area. Thats how i also think and it does work, at the end of the day, its only the weather and we can't control it so why moan if a storm does not come along. Nice sunny spells will do.

[Stuart]

Finally managed to find time this week to do a forecast ... Netweather storm forecast for tomorrow:

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

Widespread scattered storms developing over England, Wales, Ireland and Sern Scotland tomorrow, small risk of large hail towards SE England and E Anglia - where we have quite a bit of CAPE and stronger upper winds in afternoon/early evening.

whoooooo i may see my 3rd storm hope you right

[sunny starry skies]

Had yet another heavy downpour late afternoon today - which means that nearly every day for well over a week there's been a sharp shower / downpour / thunderstorm in late afternoon or early evening. My friends are suggesting Edinbugh's been moved to the tropics now it has a monsoon climate. I dread to think what our rainfall total is for July - I do know that I've been unable to cut the grass as it's perpetually wet, and it's now a foot tall We've also had thunder on six or seven separate occasions in just over two weeks, more often, though not more intense, than I can remember for Edinburgh.

Am looking at the radar at the stuf heading across the Borders towards us, wondering if it'll reach this evening, prob not though.

sss