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Convective/storm Discussion Thurs 23>>>>>>>>>


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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Interesting, the showers to my South West have intensified fairly rapidly. Looks like I am on line to recieve these storms as they track NE.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Shame Coast isn't here - he'd be in a prime position to see!

Even geeks storm enthusiasts have to sleep you know!

OK, eyes down look in for a full house!!!

Predictably ESTOFEX have the UK in their forecast today but I'm surprised at how much of it is included!

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 24 Jul 2009 06:00 to Sat 25 Jul 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 23 Jul 2009 18:41

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for N-Italy and W-Switzerland mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A broad upper trough shifts eastwards and affects central Europe during the forecast. Very hot and stable conditions persist over the Mediterranean with warm and unstable conditions over eastern Europe in the WAA regime.

DISCUSSION

... UK, Ireland, parts of France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, parts of Germany, Denmark, S-Norway and Sweden and NW-Poland ...

Cold mid-levels atop of seasonable surface moisture creates a broad area with daytime driven thunderstorms. Shear increases to the south but overall, DLS of 10-15 m/s will be strong enough for a few multicells with an isolated large hail risk. LCL is low with some LL CAPE release but overall risk of cold air funnels/tornadoes seems to be too slim for a level 1. However a level 1 may be anticipated where strongest instability finally evolves (isolated large hail risk with low WBZ).

UKASF also have a great swathe of England and Ireland highlighted for action today!

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Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-07-23 20:41:00

Valid: 2009-07-24 00:00:00 - 2009-07-24 23:59:00

Regions Affected

Southern Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern England, Midlands, Wales, Southwest England, East Anglia, Southeast England, Central Southern England, Shetland ( all of the UK except the NW Highlands are included in the WATCH )

Synopsis

LOW pressure to north of Scotland and HIGH pressure to the southwest will dominate the weather across the UK on Friday. An occlusion will bring a period of heavy rain to the Highlands and Grampians during the day. Across southern Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern parts of Northern England, and occlusion is also predicted to drift southeastwards across these areas during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Coverage of thundery activity along this band is questionable due to the large amounts of cloud cover associated with the occlusion itself. Across South/Southeast England, it seems that heavy showers will be widespread even at daybreak and there are indications of thunderstorms developing here very quickly during the morning, if not already present at daybreak. Elsewhere, widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop due to various troughs and convergence zones embedded within the anticyclonic flow. Thunderstorms will be mostly non-severe in nature, although slightly more favourable conditions are indicated across Southeast England, Home Counties and East Anglia. Strong and gusty winds will ensure any storms will move fairly quickly, and so organisation may be messy in nature - as a result most storms should be isolated, with little clustering. Isolated storms may cluster, however, over the mentioned regions where the environment will be slightly more favourable. There is an enhance risk of a tornado from any stronger storms, and given the airmass, hail seems quite likely in many showers/storms, perhaps large hail in any stronger storms. Pressure rising to the southwest as the Azores HIGH nudges in will suppress and kill convection from the west from mid-afternoon, and this gradual decay of showers/storms will move eastwards slowly through the late afternoon and evening.

TORRO's highlighted area is confined to the Midlands and all points South for today:

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2009/030

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 07:15GMT on Friday 24th July 2009

Valid from/until: 07:15 - 19:00GMT on Friday 24th July 2009 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Much of Wales

Southern N England Midlands S England E Anglia

THREATS

Isolated severe hail; funnels/weak tornado's; heavy rain; gusty winds; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

Sharp upper trough will cross the UK today, with a moist/unstable airmass in the lower layers. Showers/thunderstorms are already occurring INVOF the trough, and will continue to move/develop eastwards through this morning and afternoon. Shear will tend to decrease as the trough moves in, but should be sufficient (along with cold pool generation) for organised clusters of showers/thunderstorms. These will be capable of producing 15-25mm diameter hail (given low WB freezing levels), gusty winds to around 50mph, CG lightning. In addition, mesoscale models indicate that a few convergence zones are likely to form INVOF the surface trough - e.g. S Midlands; southern parts of England. Any cells which interact with these zones may be capable of producing weak tornadoes, as they ingest the enhanced vorticity.

We've already had some substantial and torrential rain this morning and I'm eagerly awaiting possible developments through the rest of the morning to see what today will bring!

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So it could pop-up anywhere today!!! or not. I'm still going for Norfolk / Suffolk primarily on my virtual, desk-bound chase.

Currently looking East from Mid Sussex:

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Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Just starting to pour down here, nice discrete cell passing ovehead from my SW....Me likey the look of that line of showers getting together over west wales, north cornwall/devon, they have my name on them, and sferics already, impressive for this time of day (storms always seem to enjoy a good 'lay-in' in this country before kicking off!)

Edited by ajpoolshark
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Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

UPDATE 8.40am

As per earlier forecast with risk of Severe Thunderstorms/ Tornadoes Canceled.

Upper jet moves away to the east much faster than earlier prediction leaving fairly weak upper support in place. Low level jet remains in place for a time and could create enough low level shear when interacting with surface convergence to create the odd funnel today.

The south coast has already seen the first trough run through with some strong embedded convection within a sheared environment though this looks to lessen somewhat across the far SE of the UK through this morning. Potential instability looks to become less potent compared with earlier predictions and is probably only utilised by mid afternoon where there is a chance of some isolated convection behind the secondary trough feature.

All in all still a good day to chase with IMO prime risk running from Somerset through to E. Anglia through the afternoon.

I will try to update after lunch.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent

torrential downpour here at the mo! Dropped out of nowhere! :o

we now have a warning

Same,heavy rain ,no thunder in my patch :o

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I will try to update after lunch.

Cheers Tony, a pint for me and what ever Paul Sherman is having....

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Nothing here yet but sounds like something heavy is on the way soon according to posts in here. The radar is broke right now so i dont know!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

shower number 2 and already getting heavy smile.gif

hope we see thunder later that would be nice

Whats going on with the radar. Not a good day for it to go down.

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Posted
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire
  • Location: Bicester Oxfordshire

looking at my eumetcast msg weather satellite system it shows a fair amount of convective cloud forming of southwest britany in bay of biscay this looks to be tracking towards se england there is also some hopefull looking cloud in english channel sw of isle of wight

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Nothing here yet but sounds like something heavy is on the way soon according to posts in here. The radar is broke right now so i dont know!

See, that what technology does for you Luke!......Now you're going to have to go back to the old fashioned way of forecasting, by, GOSH! looking out of the window!!! :o

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Posted
  • Location: Crayford Kent :) 30m AMSL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Storms
  • Location: Crayford Kent :) 30m AMSL

very black to my south, am missing out by a few miles, fingers crossed for later, thanks to who ever fixed the radar!

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

See, that what technology does for you Luke!......Now you're going to have to go back to the old fashioned way of forecasting, by, GOSH! looking out of the window!!! :o

:o well i can definately say the sky looks 'poor. No convecvtive looking clouds really right now. Anyway ive seen whats in West Wales on the Meto and it looks very good should it get here. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL

Im not really expecting anything here today, but i'll keep an eye on the radar throughout the day :o

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

oh dear, now the ATD is broke! :o

Every single time we need something-it breaks!!! grrr. :o

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent

very black to my south, am missing out by a few miles, fingers crossed for later, thanks to who ever fixed the radar!

All you missing out of, is getting soaked :o

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Ah that's pants now then really! Only a risk of a few thundery downpours as opposed to anything severe - boooo!!

Seen one very good looking cell this morning - very black skies, very distinct anvil and some quite prominent mammatus!

See pics attached - this was the thundery cell that run up Sussex/Surrey/Kent about an hour ago.

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Edited by Harry
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