August Cet

[Stu_London]

Hadley 16.7C to the 14th, a perhaps suprising drop of 0.1C from the 13th

Bit of a leap up to 16.9C to the 15th, after it came in at 19.1C

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

16.9 to the 16th

[damianslaw]

Looks like the CET will peak on the 20th with notable high values expected in the coming two days, thereafter a slow descent is probable. Expecting an above average CET for cert but nothing that far off the norm. Will be interesting to compare the Scotland mean against england and wales for the month, the mean is probably at or even slightly below average in Scotland at present emphasising the rule of the atlantic in the north so far this month and through to the end it would seem going off the forecasts.

[Stu_London]

Looks like the CET will peak on the 20th with notable high values expected in the coming two days, thereafter a slow descent is probable. Expecting an above average CET for cert but nothing that far off the norm. Will be interesting to compare the Scotland mean against england and wales for the month, the mean is probably at or even slightly below average in Scotland at present emphasising the rule of the atlantic in the north so far this month and through to the end it would seem going off the forecasts.

From www.climate-uk.com

CET 01-15 August 2009

N Scot - +0.9C

E Scot - +1.0C

W Scot - +0.5C

C Scot - +0.8C

CET - +0.4C

An example of the stats not telling the full story

According to the stats the South West and Wales have borne the brunt, both being below average

[damianslaw]

From www.climate-uk.com

CET 01-15 August 2009

N Scot - +0.9C

E Scot - +1.0C

W Scot - +0.5C

C Scot - +0.8C

CET - +0.4C

An example of the stats not telling the full story

According to the stats the South West and Wales have borne the brunt, both being below average

Thanks for those statistics, guess its been the absence of any real cool minima which has kept the CET up in Scotland, can't be the maxima which has been consistently average at best.

[TonyH]

From www.climate-uk.com

According to the stats the South West and Wales have borne the brunt, both being below average

Actually here its been a rather warm (20-23c maxima consistently), very dry (16mm only so far) and just somewhat cloudy.

Fairly nice if unspectacularly warm.

[Stu_London]

16.9C to 17/08/09 according to Hadley

Yesterday weighed in at 17.1C

[Methuselah]

Thanks for those statistics, guess its been the absence of any real cool minima which has kept the CET up in Scotland, can't be the maxima which has been consistently average at best.

But - we don't have a CET in SCOTLAND, DL... :lol: :lol:

[Stu_London]

Philip publishes a central Scotland temperature which might be what wa sbeing referred to

[North-Easterly Blast]

Again we avoid a cool August - it is now 16 years since the last significantly below average August (1993), we just don't seem to be able to achieve a CET below 16*C in August any more - in the last 16 years we have only managed this in 2007 and only just in 1998. Will it EVER end, and will this trend ever be broken? This is becoming a pattern that is stuck in a rut just in the same way as the mild winters in the last 20 years. Will we ever see a cool August EVER AGAIN, and even a sub 16*C August CET EVER again? Look back at Aug 1993, 14.6, and even Aug 1986 which was extremely cool at 13.7*C. To make the British Weather interesting, I would love to see an August like 1986 again, to prove that it could happen again, and just for something different, giving some interest in not seeing the same weather every year in the UK. Before anyone comments how bad that month was, I can say that it was a drier month than August 2004, and even drier than Julys 2007 and 2009. Although Aug 1986 had an EWR average of 121mm, 40mm of that rain fell on one day, the 25th, so the rest of the month although so cool was not extreme for wetness.

The lack of cool Augusts in recent years also bears comparison with the lack of cold Februarys, Aprils, Mays, Junes and Septembers, explained in detail below:

We have to go back to 1996 for a below average February

We have to go back to 1989 for a significantly below average April

We have to go back to 1996 for a below average May

We have to go back to 1991 for a significantly below average June

We have to go back to 1993 for a significantly below average August

We have to go back to 1994 for a significantly below average September

For each of those months we have not had any month even half a degree below the 1961-90 average since the years quoted, and mostly never more than 0.2*C below average. Will the lack of below average CETs in any of these months EVER end?

Edited August 18, 2009 by North-Easterly Blast

[Gavin P]

August 2007 saw a CET of 15.4. And that was just two years ago. So basically your rant is about nothing?

Edited August 18, 2009 by Gavin P

[davehsug]

Again we avoid a cool August - it is now 16 years since the last significantly below average August (1993), we just don't seem to be able to achieve a CET below 16*C in August any more - in the last 16 years we have only managed this in 2007 and only just in 1998. Will it EVER end, and will this trend ever be broken? This is becoming a pattern that is stuck in a rut just in the same way as the mild winters in the last 20 years. Will we ever see a cool August EVER AGAIN, and even a sub 16*C August CET EVER again? Look back at Aug 1993, 14.6, and even Aug 1986 which was extremely cool at 13.7*C. To make the British Weather interesting, I would love to see an August like 1986 again, to prove that it could happen again, and just for something different, giving some interest in not seeing the same weather every year in the UK. Before anyone comments how bad that month was, I can say that it was a drier month than August 2004, and even drier than Julys 2007 and 2009. Although Aug 1986 had an EWR average of 121mm, 40mm of that rain fell on one day, the 25th, so the rest of the month although so cool was not extreme for wetness.

The lack of cool Augusts in recent years also bears comparison with the lack of cold Februarys, Aprils, Mays, Junes and Septembers, explained in detail below:

We have to go back to 1996 for a below average February

We have to go back to 1989 for a significantly below average April

We have to go back to 1996 for a below average May

We have to go back to 1991 for a significantly below average June

We have to go back to 1993 for a significantly below average August

We have to go back to 1994 for a significantly below average September

For each of those months we have not had any month even half a degree below the 1961-90 average since the years quoted, and mostly never more than 0.2*C below average. Will the lack of below average CETs in any of these months EVER end?

We also have to go back to 2006 for any decent spell of summery weather. Your rather strange post goes to show again that there are still lies, dammned lies & statistics!

[North-Easterly Blast]

Gavin P; what I meant to say was that ONLY two Augusts in 16 years have had a sub 16*C CET. This clearly shows the lack of cool or even average Augusts since 1993, when you consider that by historical standards even the average for August is under 16*C. Also I will point out that I have some doubts as to the accuracy of the 15.4 that Hadley put down for Aug 2007, and I think that it was not quite as cool as that, when you consider that Philip's Eden's (Manley) CET for Aug 2007 was 15.7; Hadley are hardly ever 0.3 below Manley. I think that Aug 2007's CET should be more like 15.6 or thereabouts.

davehsug;

You mean to say that we haven't had a decent spell of summery weather since 2006? I will correct you and say that late June / early July this summer saw some pretty hot weather by any British summer standards, and this month has seen predominantly warm weather in southern areas at least, and this summer will most likely end up slightly above average overall. Many people quote summer 2008 as being a really bad summer, when in actual fact this is a pack of lies; summer 2008 was by NO means a cool summer and statistically it was regarded as average overall, or even a shade above by historical standards. I feel that this is down to the fact that we have had two of the five warmest summers on record in recent years, (2003 and 2006), and another exceptionally hot one back in 1995, so this distorts the way that most people look at an average summer (2008), and this brings in the danger of looking through rose coloured spectacles at an average summer.

Summer 2008 was certainly considerably warmer than four summers from 1985-88 and five summers from 1977-81, and most summers in the 1960s. For a summer to rank alongside the statistics as a particularly bad one it needs to be like 1954 or 1956, and on top of this 1922 was even cooler still.

[davehsug]

Gavin P; what I meant to say was that ONLY two Augusts in 16 years have had a sub 16*C CET. This clearly shows the lack of cool or even average Augusts since 1993, when you consider that by historical standards even the average for August is under 16*C. Also I will point out that I have some doubts as to the accuracy of the 15.4 that Hadley put down for Aug 2007, and I think that it was not quite as cool as that, when you consider that Philip's Eden's (Manley) CET for Aug 2007 was 15.7; Hadley are hardly ever 0.3 below Manley. I think that Aug 2007's CET should be more like 15.6 or thereabouts.

davehsug;

You mean to say that we haven't had a decent spell of summery weather since 2006? I will correct you and say that late June / early July this summer saw some pretty hot weather by any British summer standards, and this month has seen predominantly warm weather in southern areas at least, and this summer will most likely end up slightly above average overall. Many people quote summer 2008 as being a really bad summer, when in actual fact this is a pack of lies; summer 2008 was by NO means a cool summer and statistically it was regarded as average overall, or even a shade above by historical standards. I feel that this is down to the fact that we have had two of the five warmest summers on record in recent years, (2003 and 2006), and another exceptionally hot one back in 1995, so this distorts the way that most people look at an average summer (2008), and this brings in the danger of looking through rose coloured spectacles at an average summer.

Summer 2008 was certainly considerably warmer than four summers from 1985-88 and five summers from 1977-81, and most summers in the 1960s. For a summer to rank alongside the statistics as a particularly bad one it needs to be like 1954 or 1956, and on top of this 1922 was even cooler still.

This is where we differ. I don't expect summers to be constant 30c & wall to wall sunshine. What I do expect is a mix of dry settled spells & more unsettled ones. The last 3 summers have failed miserably to deliver on this.

There are many people saying "but the summer's above average!" In truth the temperatures maybe, but the "weather" is most certainly not.

Like many I'm happy with dry & some sun & 20/21c. We have had 3 successive washout Julys, whatever the temperature!

We seem to be obsessed with temperature whatever the season. The CET is NOT the be all & end all. It's an arbitrary measure of the temperature at selected locations & means nothing if you don't take the other factors into consideration. The late June/early July spell being a case in point. Sure it delivered high temperatures for some, but for many of us, sunshine was at a premium & some places were quite cool & dull.

I'm sure many below average Junes, Julys & Augusts will have delivered considerably better weather by most peoples standards than the last 3 years!

Dave

[Lettucing Gutted]

I'm sure many below average Junes, Julys & Augusts will have delivered considerably better weather by most peoples standards than the last 3 years!

Dave

Mr Data I wonder how many cool summers have had above average sunshine?

[Weather-history]

Mr Data I wonder how many cool summers have had above average sunshine?

Summer 1929 was on the cool side (CET: 14.9) but was sunnier that the 1971-2000 summer sunshine average for England

For a summer to rank alongside the statistics as a particularly bad one it needs to be like 1954 or 1956, and on top of this 1922 was even cooler still.

Don't really agree with this. It is possible to have a warm but very wet summer with frequent rain days and lack of sunshine. That could constitute to being a bad summer.

Summer 1834 would be such an example. July 1779 and August 2004 would be examples of individual summer months. Warm overall but total washouts.

Summer 2008 was very poor for the Manchester area, the worst since 1987 and one of the worst since 1900 using the index. It was not particularly cool but rain days were frequent and sunshine levels were less than brilliant with an exceptionally dull August. High mean temperatures are pretty irrelevant if it is constantly dull with rain at times.

Edited August 19, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Stu_London]

16.9C to the 18th

Yesterday came in at 16.7C - highlighting the north west / south east gradient

[Gavin P]

16.9C to the 18th

Yesterday came in at 16.7C - highlighting the north west / south east gradient

Manley actually dropped yesterday and stands at 16.8.

Fridays update should see us up to around 17.2 I'd have thought? After which we should see a gradual decline for the remainder of the month.

[Weather-history]

16.9 and above and we break that September 2006 figure.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It is easy to forget that the southerly incursion early in the month brought a lot of cloudy, muggy weather to most south-eastern areas while much of northern and western Britain was dry, sunny and warm. This will have helped the outturn in northern and western regions.

I agree that too much emphasis is placed on temperature in the summer months, with "warm but dull and wet" not being an unusual combination. Junes 1966 and 1982 are obvious examples, as well as the more recent 2007. The CET also only gives an accurate representation for Central England, and England & Wales rainfall and sunshine only for England and Wales as a whole, while in reality there tends to be considerable regional variation.

Personal preferences can also affect one's perception of how good or bad a summer is. For instance, prolonged spells with heavy showers and thunderstorms with sunshine in between tend to go down well with me, but badly with many others. The opposite is true with regards prolonged spells of dry but mainly cloudy weather with occasional drizzle (hence why the posts suggesting that I acknowledged the improvement in Norwich's weather earlier this month got my back up- essentially the former weather type got replaced by the latter).

Dry and sunny but cool summers are pretty rare, mainly because of its rarity in high summer (dry and sunny but cool Junes aren't all that unusual). As well as 1929, I think 1977 managed it in many northern and western regions, though it was a dull one in the east.

[Eugene]

Fairly happy with my August forecast, it has been a windy month with frequent LP systems crossing the UK especially the north though it has been warmer than i thought it would be due to more TM air around and not as wet down here due to LP slightly more north than i thought though next week going by tonights model ouput does back up my original August thoughts.

[Gavin P]

Hadleys pushed up to 17.0;

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Up to 17.1 for the 20th, should be a drop today.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Summer 1929 was on the cool side (CET: 14.9) but was sunnier that the 1971-2000 summer sunshine average for England

Don't really agree with this. It is possible to have a warm but very wet summer with frequent rain days and lack of sunshine. That could constitute to being a bad summer.

Summer 1834 would be such an example. July 1779 and August 2004 would be examples of individual summer months. Warm overall but total washouts.

Summer 2008 was very poor for the Manchester area, the worst since 1987 and one of the worst since 1900 using the index. It was not particularly cool but rain days were frequent and sunshine levels were less than brilliant with an exceptionally dull August. High mean temperatures are pretty irrelevant if it is constantly dull with rain at times.

Synoptically speaking August 2008 should have been far cooler than it actually was. It was very dull and fairly wet overall with low pressure for most of the month and it still recorded a CET that was close to, or even slightly above average, and above 16.0*C. Compare this to the likes of 1912 (12.9), 1956 (13.5) and 1986 (13.7). August 2008 synoptics should have produced a much cooler month, nearer 15*C or even lower, but it didn't, just a complete failure of the synoptics to deliver cool weather. What went wrong and what was the reason for the synoptics in August 2008 to fail to deliver any below average temperatures?

July 2009 was another particularly wet summer month that failed yet again on a below average CET. It was almost as wet as July 1988 but it still recorded a CET that was close to average and above 16.0*C, as opposed to the cool 14.7 of July 1988. July 2007 did give us some hope in cooler than average weather, but last year and this year have dashed it again even with very wet synoptics! Given that July 2009 started hot, and with all the rain and low pressure synoptics for the rest of the month I would have expected a lower CET nearer the 15.5 mark, but it failed yet again. After the first five days what was the reason for the very wet synoptics to fail to deliver cool enough weather for a cooler than average month?

I think that after two of the hottest summers on record in 2003 and 2006 there is always a danger of looking through rose coloured spectacles at a near average summer; many quote summer 2008 as a poor summer but in actual fact it was by no means a cool summer and statistically it was regarded as average overall. Had summer 2008 followed the four cool summers from 1985-1988 or very cool summers like 1954 and 1956 people would have a different perspective and see 2008 as nothing other than an average summer. It only takes an exceptional summer or two in the years close to an average one to change people's views on an average summer.

Yet again this year no cool August. This August has just seen a repetitive pattern of low pressure across the north and high pressure close to southern UK with a complete lack of cool weather although no major hot spell either. Will we ever see an August below average or even below 16*C EVER AGAIN? Only one below average August in 16 years and one other only just under 16*C is staggering! Just to make the British Weather interesting I would love to see an August like 1986 again to show variablity in the weather from year to year and for it to show that it could still happen again.

Edited August 22, 2009 by North-Easterly Blast

[Weather-history]

July 2009 was another particularly wet summer month that failed yet again on a below average CET. It was almost as wet as July 1988 but it still recorded a CET that was close to average and above 16.0*C, as opposed to the cool 14.7 of July 1988.

One big difference between the two months. July 1988 was persistently cool, July 2009 wasn't.

The Hadley CET after the first 5 days of July 2009 was 19.8

If the first 5 days of July 1988 were as hot as July 2009 was and the rest of the month was as cool as July 1988, then the CET would have been 15.5C

Edited August 22, 2009 by Mr_Data