August Cet

[North-Easterly Blast]

One big difference between the two months. July 1988 was persistently cool, July 2009 wasn't.

The Hadley CET after the first 5 days of July 2009 was 19.8

If the first 5 days of July 1988 were as hot as July 2009 was and the rest of the month was as cool as July 1988, then the CET would have been 15.5C

Yes very true, and that is what I would have expected for July 2009. With the wet synoptics of July 2009 after the first five days it should have produced a final 26 days as cool as July 1988, enough to give us a month that was at least half a degree below the 1961-90 mean, but it didn't, so that is where the GW post 1988 era sucks.

I do believe that had the synoptics of August 2008 occurred back in the 1950s or earlier it would have produced a month that was as cool as August 1956 (13.5) or if not almost as cool, so GW UK really sucked last August. So August 2008 style synoptics have warmed by 2.5*C or more since the 1950s which is staggering.

[Snowyowl9]

The SE has been getting all the warmer dryer weather this summer,especially this month so not surprising the CET is what it is and theres more TM air around on average this summer,nights have been much warmer.

Havn`t seen any charts like this month like august 1986.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1986/Rrea00119860827.gif

[Weather-history]

.

I do believe that had the synoptics of August 2008 occurred back in the 1950s or earlier it would have produced a month that was as cool as August 1956 (13.5) or if not almost as cool, so GW UK really sucked last August. So August 2008 style synoptics have warmed by 2.5*C or more since the 1950s which is staggering.

Not necessarily so, August 1917 was a washout, very cyclonic, more so than last year, the CET was 15.3

Not that cool.

Edited August 22, 2009 by Mr_Data

[North-Easterly Blast]

Not necessarily so, August 1917 was a washout, very cyclonic, more so than last year, the CET was 15.3

Not that cool.

Yes very true, the very wet August 1917 still did not bring a CET that was too far from average despite all the rain, it was almost as wet as August 1912 but nowhere near as cool. The coolest synoptic patterns during the summer months are strings of low pressure becoming slow moving across the centre of the UK, or lows moving across into Scandinavia and becoming slow moving with high pressure in the mid-Atlantic which will allow cool northerlies of Arctic origin to cover the UK. A pattern that can bring cool and drier conditions in summer is high pressure over Greenland extending a ridge over the UK. We never seem to see these patterns in summer nowadays, thus the decline in cool weather in summer. Almost all the cyclonic spells we now get in summer almost always have more tropical maritime air entrenched in them than many years ago, and a more south-westerly component to the flow, which does not allow a prolonged cool spell to develop in summer during wet spells. The lack of cold polar maritime zonality (as opposed to warm tropical maritime zonality) in the last 20 years (similar to January 1984) is also another reason for the decline in prolonged cool summer spells. Cold zonality (NW-SE moving Atlantic depressions) like January 1984 is also a particularly cool setup if it occurs during the summer months.

[Snowyowl9]

We did have a NW to SE flow last winter and starting in december when lows took a S-ly track.

[Stu_London]

Hadley down to 16.9 to the 23rd

Bit of a cooldown on the cards between now and the end of the month based on the raw data.

Unadjusted figure likely to be 16.5C to 16.7C

A chance that the final figure will be similar to 2008 (16.2)

All in all close to average

[Gavin P]

And most significantly the 16.8 CET of September 2006 survives unbeaten for a third summer!

[North-Easterly Blast]

And most significantly the 16.8 CET of September 2006 survives unbeaten for a third summer!

That is nothing out of the ordinary. Between 1959 and 1975 only one month ever got to 16.9*C, July 1971, and only one other month ever matched 16.8*C, July 1969.

There is a bit of a cooldown likely before the end of the month so I'd suggest we are looking at an August CET of about 16.5. Slightly above average, and the warmest for five years, and possibly the warmest and driest August since 2003. That will give summer 2008 a CET of about 15.8*C, so a slightly above average summer overall. The UKMO summer forecast was pretty much near the mark to say the truth. They did say it would be warmer than the last two summers (of which neither were that cool) but never said it would be exceptional like 2003 or 2006. All in all, a pretty much ordinary British summer this year. An average mix, one spell of real heat, some wet spells at times. Nothing out of the ordinary to say the least.

Still we avoid a cool August yet again. 16 years now since the last significantly below average August, and only one other since that was below average at all. We hardly ever seem to be able to achieve a CET below 16*C in August any more. July still managed a CET close to average and above 16.0*C despite all the rain, so there are no signs again this year to say that GW is not with us.

[Guest Mike W]

August 2004 was 17.6 so it wouldn't be the warmest since 2003 but 2004 if it finishes 16.5.

[Gavin P]

That is nothing out of the ordinary. Between 1959 and 1975 only one month ever got to 16.9*C, July 1971, and only one other month ever matched 16.8*C, July 1969.

Perhaps, but it can't be very often SEPTEMBER holds the warmest month for three years? :lol:

[Snowyowl9]

All in all, a pretty much ordinary British summer this year. An average mix, one spell of real heat, some wet spells at times. Nothing out of the ordinary to say the least.

Still we avoid a cool August yet again. 16 years now since the last significantly below average August, and only one other since that was below average at all. We hardly ever seem to be able to achieve a CET below 16*C in August any more. July still managed a CET close to average and above 16.0*C despite all the rain, so there are no signs again this year to say that GW is not with us.

The hot start of July as a few keep saying brought the CET higher than it would`ve been.

As for this summer being forecast temperatures were probably a touch lower than what the promised BBQ summer

And this summer nothing out of the ordinary,that depends very much on location from the balmy SE to the extremely wet west/NW July was very far from normal you should`ve been here,it was an eye opener.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

That is nothing out of the ordinary. Between 1959 and 1975 only one month ever got to 16.9*C, July 1971, and only one other month ever matched 16.8*C, July 1969.

NEB

Cherry pick the coolest decades why don't you. The fact that August hasn't been cold isn't out of the ordinary either. Please let's not turn this CET thread into a AGW thread. You know with the synoptics we had in June during Wimbledon I expected to have record breaking temps with GWUK and all that. We didn't we had a normal 'hot' spell....

Back to CET, it was mighty cool here last night anyone else get a pretty chilly night? If CET land got what i got then another drop for sure

BFTP

[Weather-history]

July still managed a CET close to average and above 16.0*C despite all the rain,

Philip Eden's data for the second half of July 2009

CET: 15.3 -1.5

Rainfall: 82.2mm (280%)

Wet and cool by those figures

You like Ian Brown take a very simplistic and almost black and white logic to the climate. The climate ain't that simple.

[SteveB]

NEB

Cherry pick the coolest decades why don't you. The fact that August hasn't been cold isn't out of the ordinary either. Please let's not turn this CET thread into a AGW thread. You know with the synoptics we had in June during Wimbledon I expected to have record breaking temps with GWUK and all that. We didn't we had a normal 'hot' spell....

Back to CET, it was mighty cool here last night anyone else get a pretty chilly night? If CET land got what i got then another drop for sure

BFTP

11.9c low here last night. I am sure in land areas would have got lower.

Bit of a shock when I left for work this morning.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes it turned pleasantly cool last night Herstmonceux was in singles figures early this morning for instance.

Friday and Saturday nights should be quite refreshing as well.

[WhiteXmas]

Minimum last night here was 11.4c. Was a clear night but clouded over very quickly so probably kept the temperature up.

[Iceberg]

That is nothing out of the ordinary. Between 1959 and 1975 only one month ever got to 16.9*C, July 1971, and only one other month ever matched 16.8*C, July 1969.

There is a bit of a cooldown likely before the end of the month so I'd suggest we are looking at an August CET of about 16.5. Slightly above average, and the warmest for five years, and possibly the warmest and driest August since 2003. That will give summer 2008 a CET of about 15.8*C, so a slightly above average summer overall. The UKMO summer forecast was pretty much near the mark to say the truth. They did say it would be warmer than the last two summers (of which neither were that cool) but never said it would be exceptional like 2003 or 2006. All in all, a pretty much ordinary British summer this year. An average mix, one spell of real heat, some wet spells at times. Nothing out of the ordinary to say the least.

Still we avoid a cool August yet again. 16 years now since the last significantly below average August, and only one other since that was below average at all. We hardly ever seem to be able to achieve a CET below 16*C in August any more. July still managed a CET close to average and above 16.0*C despite all the rain, so there are no signs again this year to say that GW is not with us.

Some cherry picking of dates but all in all pretty accurate, I'd also leave the GW out of it.

I do despair at some of the comments after though. The monthly CET is just that, a monthly CET, it's not about taking only 2 weeks, or excluding the hot start to a month or taking the dates from the 24th to the 24th or the mean temperature of spicklesbury on the sea.

These seems to happen in quite a few months, and is interesting sometimes but is still irrelavent to the CET figure !

[Stu_London]

Hadley remains on 16.9C to the 24th after yesterday came in at 16.6C

Last night minimum was 10.5C in the CET zone - one of the cooler nights this month

Latest data suggests a finish point of 16.5C, although that may end up being a touch higher as the heat edges north at the end of the month.

With adjustments, a very close to average finish still looks likely

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Some cherry picking of dates but all in all pretty accurate, I'd also leave the GW out of it.

I do despair at some of the comments after though. The monthly CET is just that, a monthly CET, it's not about taking only 2 weeks, or excluding the hot start to a month or taking the dates from the 24th to the 24th or the mean temperature of spicklesbury on the sea.

These seems to happen in quite a few months, and is interesting sometimes but is still irrelavent to the CET figure !

I rather think that Stu's comment about last night in the last post does give some relevance to the CET Iceberg. And therefore previous comments wrt to local temps last night are pertinent to this. So not sure what your 'despair' alludes to?

There has been a lack of cooler mins this month to put downward pressure on the CET so a presence of one or two of those will/could make a difference to the final figure. Especially if/wherever it follows a day where maxs might be that bit lower. The pattern has been changeable and so in the final analysis small factors like this can and do make something of a difference.

Worth reading between the lines as to what others are actually suggesting/saying rather than misrepresent them in terms of what you think they may be saying.

Edited August 25, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Iceberg]

Carm down Tamara, it wasn't aimed at you or anybody in particular, but rather in general at an annoyance on this thread.

However we want to consider it, the min temperature in Dorset, Dover, Cornwall or Inverness doesn't really have any bearing on the CET. According to the Met Office for instance the min temp for NW england was 11.something which is not cool for the time of year.

I am not aware that any of the CET stations recorded sub 10 last night, so it's hardly mighty cool for the end of summer.

[Optimus Prime]

It has been a warm August here in the south. Am currently running 1.4c above normal so the warmest since 2004. While the SW and NW of England has been cooler.

Northern Ireland has had yet again another poor August.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Carm down Tamara, it wasn't aimed at you or anybody in particular, but rather in general at an annoyance on this thread.

However we want to consider it, the min temperature in Dorset, Dover, Cornwall or Inverness doesn't really have any bearing on the CET. According to the Met Office for instance the min temp for NW england was 11.something which is not cool for the time of year.

I am not aware that any of the CET stations recorded sub 10 last night, so it's hardly mighty cool for the end of summer.

Not many of us to choose from was there?

Still don't understand any 'annoyance'

Whether one deems last night especially cool or not, or highlights which town/county etc in doing so (one way or the other) it still doesn't negate the point that higher night mins are often culpable in keeping the monthly CET higher. Even a preponderence of 11. something nights are going to make at least something of a difference in terms of restricting the upward bandwith of the CET if daily maxs are not unduly high.

I would agree with Stu's analysis for the end of the month. No-one is or was trying to say that last night was significantly cool in any way but that factors in terms of how many cool(er) nights occur following the passage of cold fronts (such as last night) in this changeable pattern will assist in determining whether this month finishes close to or rather above the longer term monthly CET average

[Optimus Prime]

Well I recorded 9.7c which is single figures. Very briefly mind due.

[Iceberg]

No-one is or was trying to say that last night was significantly cool in any way but that factors in terms of how many cool(er) nights occur following the passage of cold fronts (such as last night) in this changeable pattern will assist in determining whether this month finishes close to or rather above the longer term monthly CET average

Re your first point " it was mighty cool here last night anyone else get a pretty chilly night? " I know this wasn't you but it proves my point, however now I am being perdantic and don't want to drag the thread OT.

A quick look at the mins from GFS to the end of the month shows only 1 day where the min is set to be below average for the CET zone. The rest of the time average or above, pretty much in line with the average min for this month so far.

Edited August 25, 2009 by Iceberg

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

ok - fair enough I see what you are saying there.

But I think to be fair to Fred (BFTP) all he was really just trying to do was deliberately supply a bit of an 'antidote' to the GWUK debate and wasn't intending to be taken too literally.