Long Range Update - Will Summer Return?

[Paul]

The Netweather long range forecast has been updated, looking ahead to the remainder of summer and into Autumn. As a point of interest, this is a quote we sent to the media back in April after being asked for comment on the 'BBQ summer' forecast from the Met-Office..

Netweather.tv have also issued their summer forecast recently, and are a little less bullish regarding the prospects for a 'bbq summer'.

"Our most recent long range model update is indicating a warmer and drier than average start to summer for many, but we are concerned that rainfall totals may climb above average during July with some very wet periods possible."

You can view the forecast here:

http://www.netweathe...longrange;sess=

Also, John has put together a video this evening taking a look into August which ties in really well:

http://www.netweathe...ity-video;sess=

And finally, some of you may have noticed that Glacier Point (Stewart) has joined the Netweather forecast team, he'll be working on the long range forecast side of things, and will be putting together some regular videos (among other things) to keep you informed as to his take on things.

Cheers

Paul

[Nick.F]

Thanks for the video stuff, most interesting.

Can I ask that one small thing be considered (knowing a fair bit about web development here), please can you try and arrange it so that any advertisements on the pages with the video are static ones. When I was just watching John's video there were two animated ads on the page and on less capable computers/connections (like my laptop over wireless in the garden) everytime the two ads moved at the same time, John's vid stopped for a few seconds - this happened a lot. This was due to the Flash engine struggling against the other screen gpu/cpu resources used by the ads.

I understand that ads are a necessary evil, but when they affect the performance of the main content, it's a problem.

Thanks for the efforts.

[Paul]

Thanks Nick, will see what can be done there - often it's only poorly written flash banners which have that sort of effect and we tend to get those removed whenever we notice them, so if it's a particular banner you see which seems to cause a slowdown, please grab a screenshot.

[Polar Continental]

Thanks John, very interesting, an excellent analysis on the more advanced side of the models there, these videos are going to become very popular with members, especially when winter draws closer. Just a shame for summer lovers, there is nothing much on the horizon for them yet.

Congratulations also to GP on joining the Forecast team.

Paul

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Firstly well done to Stewart [GP] for getting on forecast team and well done to Net for pretty decent initial foreacst. Now guys, it would seem that the jet will not play ball and move north and secondly looks set to continue on its 'new' path.

What are the thoughts on this from the forecast team?

My point is that this is a key development and wish to point the research by GWO [David DILLEY] that the jet will move south due to lunar forcing during 2008 and 2009. It may be co-incidence but then again that's 3 summers now and last winter included where the jet has been on much more southerly track.

I personally tend to agree very much with GWO and also the current solar state IMO isn't going to go away and due to the perturbation cycle is possibly going to strengthen further this movement.

This isn't a question on agreeing/disagreeing with GWO or myself but on your take of why the jet has behaved/is behaving as it is.

BFTP

Edited July 28, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Optimus Prime]

Well done net weather for not getting tied into the Metoffice, recently poor seasonal forecasts. Looks to be spot on.

[The PIT]

I wish you guys would stop delivering good quality stuff gives me nothing to complain about.

very interesting and well done.

[johnholmes]

I don't normally use bad language but bl---- -ll Pit, that has to be a first you complimenting me-thanks though its appreciated-more to come from self and other forecasters as we gear up with the video idea.

[Nick L]

Yeah well done Netweather, you should teach those folk down in Exeter a thing or two! The Daily Mail has an article ripping into the "barbecue summer" claim by the Met Office. Usually I would defend the forecasters over the tabloids, but the Met Office have nobody to blame but themselves for making such a risky statement.

[NorthantsSnow]

A confusing and contradictory forecast. Take the temperature chart, central England/East Mids 1C below average next month according to that. But the table above says only 0.4C below average. Now if it is comparing against a more recent mean as suggested by the bumph underneath then fair enough, but why put them together on the same page as if they are related. It's frying my brain just trying to get my head around it.

All in all, interesting forecast but a bit of consistency wouldn't go a miss. You have charts showing significantly below average but yet you're calling for close to or above the average!

[Paul]

The tables and the charts correlate as far as I can see - they're using the same data.

They both use the rolling average and as explained on the page that is currently higher than the standard 1971-2000 average which most people use, which is why we've referred to it within the forecast text.

[NorthantsSnow]

The tables and the charts correlate as far as I can see - they're using the same data.

They both use the rolling average and as explained on the page that is currently higher than the standard 1971-2000 average which most people use, which is why we've referred to it within the forecast text.

The charts are low res perhaps that's the issue, but they don't seem to correlate from an IMBY perspective unless the East Mids is actually referring to a region of Scotland.

I just don't understand the logic of including such charts and then disregarding them in your analysis. What use are they if they don't compliment what you're actually saying?

[Paul]

The rolling average is also referred to within the text. The model uses that average, we show it as that's what it uses but we also tell people that the average is different to the one they will hear talked about - ie the 1971-2000 average.

[NorthantsSnow]

The rolling average is also referred to within the text. The model uses that average, we show it as that's what it uses but we also tell people that the average is different to the one they will hear talked about - ie the 1971-2000 average.

Right. So is August going to be hot or cold?

[Paul]

It's going to be above or close to the 1971-2000 average- as it says in the text.

There does appear to be a slight issue with the table at the moment looking at it, we'll resolve that.

[NorthantsSnow]

I'm with you. So the chart is meaningless and it's going to be slightly warmer. Thanks.

[Paul]

Lol, the chart isn't meaningless as it's showing a figure against the last 30 years - some would in fact consider that to be more meaningful than the 1971-2000 average as it's more up to date, but since the 71-2000 average is more widely used we refer to it within the text.

The averages used by the model aren't of our design, the NCEP are the people who run it.

[Optimus Prime]

I thought the whole point was to use charts as a help but including other analysis elsewhere may result in adjusting against the NCEP chart? It's a NW forecast not a carbon copy of the NCEP, what would be the point in that?

[Paul]

Not sure what your point is there to be honest? It's based on the NCEP model although we make adjustments to the output to localise for the UK etc. The basis of the model including some important bias correction uses the rolling average, so it's not something that can simply be changed.

[paul tall]

Alright chaps, paul tall is back! :ph34r:

Sick of the summer, when is it going to snow? Oh and is August going to be more settled, I'm going to South Wales for a week on 28th August, hopefully I've picked a good week.

[TEITS]

Delighted to hear GP has joined the forecast team. Without doubt one of my most favourite members on here due to his technical posts allowing us to learn alot more.

Excellent video by John H and I would like to say to Paul that I love the net weather TV as this adds a nice professional touch to the website.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

It makes a mockery of the Reputation system that i have the same number of votes as Glacier Point!

[Don]

Netweather's Summer forecast has been particularly good so far with the initial forecast released in May stating that the jet was likely to track south at times like the last two Summers and this of course has been the case, so good work! I also like the new videos and find them very informative and easy to follow for not just those who have a wide knowledge of meteorology, but the general public as well. My only complaint with these is that they're sightly blurred which makes it difficult to view some details on the charts presented. Also pleased to hear that GP has joined the forecast team and look forward to seeing many more videos as we head through the rest of Summer and more particularly Autumn and Winter.

Well done all