Convective/storm Discussion Thurs 30Th July Onwards

[Harry]

GFS is still playing with the idea of a plume event from Thursday 6th August onwards!

It has been giving this indication on and off for the past week, and at this stage is the strongest indication it has given yet. It is not reserved only for the 6th August, but the few days following also - second real plume of the year potentially.

Normally I wouldn't pay much attention with still over a week to go, but it's certainly something to keep our spirits up considering the relative lack of plumes so far this year, and indeed the last few years.

[Hal1]

This would be great. We could all use some sun at this stage now. Hopefully the rest of the models agree on this as we come closer to the reliable time frame. :o

[A.J]

GFS is still playing with the idea of a plume event from Thursday 6th August onwards!

It has been giving this indication on and off for the past week, and at this stage is the strongest indication it has given yet. It is not reserved only for the 6th August, but the few days following also - second real plume of the year potentially.

Normally I wouldn't pay much attention with still over a week to go, but it's certainly something to keep our spirits up considering the relative lack of plumes so far this year, and indeed the last few years.

It would be nice H, getting a little fed up with the doom and gloom of the recent weather!....I, for one, will certainly be keeping an eye on the charts the coming days :o

[dave48]

GFS is still playing with the idea of a plume event from Thursday 6th August onwards!

It has been giving this indication on and off for the past week, and at this stage is the strongest indication it has given yet. It is not reserved only for the 6th August, but the few days following also - second real plume of the year potentially.

Normally I wouldn't pay much attention with still over a week to go, but it's certainly something to keep our spirits up considering the relative lack of plumes so far this year, and indeed the last few years.

Looks good, thanks for the heads up.

[Coast]

Next patient please!

Edited July 29, 2009 by Coast

[CardiffStorm]

Certainly is something to keep an eye on in the next few days. Would be nice to have something happen. Im getting a bit bored of the weather at the moment.

[Coast]

After a relative no show (electrically) yesterday ESTOFEX have another great chunk of the UK highlighted for today including much of England and Scotland but excluding the South West and South East. Norway and Denmark look to be under a level 1.

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 30 Jul 2009 06:00 to Fri 31 Jul 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 29 Jul 2009 21:11

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for extremely northern Germany, Denmark, southern Norway, and southern Sweden mainly for severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for southern Switzerland and north-eastern Italy mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS

Low geopotential over the northern Atlantic continues and associated strong south-westerly jet still affects western Europe. A negatively-tilted and quite intense short-wave trough is forecast to move north-eastwards across the North Sea on Thursday, while a subtropical high over Morocco ridges into the central Mediterranean, the Baltic States, and further into Finland. Low geopotential is present further east including cut-off low over the northern Black Sea. At lower levels, cool air masses spread into the North Sea region, France, Germany, and most of Scandinavia behind a cold front, while relatively warm air masses are present over the Mediterranean and eastern Europe.

DISCUSSION

Southern Scandinavia region

In the range of the intense short-wave trough, models agree about a dry intrusion moving across the North Sea into southern Scandinavia in the morning hours. Strong QG forcing is expected, and a strong ageostrophic circulation does likely lead to warm air advection. The cold front is forecast to cross northern Germany and Denmark in the morning hours and will spread across southern Scandinavia at noon.

Models indicate that strong QG forcing will likely overspread the cold front leading to weak instability in the range of the cold front. A narrow convective line is forecast to spread across northern Germany and Denmark into southern Norway and Sweden and will reach southern central Sweden in the evening. Given rather cold equilibrium temperatures at the cyclonic flank of the upper-level jet streak, thunderstorms are forecast in the north-western portions of this convective line.

Given strong vertical wind shear along the convective line, severe wind gusts are forecast, especially in the range of bowing lines. Tornadoes may develop as rather large horizontal cyclonic vorticity may develop in the range of mesoscale wave along the convective line. The main limiting factor is the rather cool boundary-layer and uncertainties about the development of low-level moisture.

In the wake of the cold front, models agree about some instability at the cyclonic flank of the mid-level jet streak over the southern North Sea, and showers and thunderstorms will likely develop, capable of producing small hail and stormy gusts mostly below severe limits in the range of rather strong vertical wind shear.

UKASF haven't changed yesterdays forecast (yet), TORRO have yesterdays forecast still up which generally didn't seem to happen.

The 21st Operational Weather Squadron chart for now shows something but it rapidly moves NW into the North Sea from here on:

Other charts/images for today:

Again I'm not convinced we'll see much today, maybe a slight chance in East Anglia later but the 6th August is continuing to look interesting:

Edited July 30, 2009 by Coast

[dogs32]

from the MET....who are getting stick today in the

paper's

anyway as follow's

Today:

A generally bright day with a scattering of showers, these occasionally heavy and persistent with local thunderstorms, although it will tend to become drier and sunnier this afternoon, especially in the south and west. Brisk westerly wind

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Saturday afternoon looking quite wet for here at the moment. Predictions vary the amount, intensity and longevity of the rain, but all in all, it still points to it being wet.

A shame, as it was another day planned for fishing.

[mrpsb]

Manchester has gone very dark, heavy downpour and occasional lightning strikes, looks like January rather than July! Sat here in the CIS tower enjoying the show

[dogs32]

Thunderstorm report's not far away from Manchester

edit...I see above post

Edited July 30, 2009 by dogs32

[ItIsGee]

Thunderstorm report's not far away from Manchester

edit...I see above post

I Can confirm that Manchester has jus tbeen in a short but intest thunderstorm which is not moving east. went straight through the middle! ACE!

[James M]

Woken up by thunder and lightning here, a great way to start the day

[Stuart]

well i see my 4th Storm today I dont think so

Edited July 30, 2009 by Stuart

[sunny scunny]

A lot of rain here lately, but showers are developing fast to my west, so things could get interesting soon as they push East

[Coast]

Woken up by thunder and lightning here, a great way to start the day

Nice!! Just looked at the detector to see a small line of Sferics running South to North, perhaps it's the remnants of overnight running off to the North Sea and onto Scandia shown on the 21st OWS map?

[dogs32]

looks like they are expanding around Manchester

you can see the Anvil here on Sat

http://www.sat24.com/gb

Edited July 30, 2009 by dogs32

[MP-R]

Plenty of thundery downpours around this morning, every cloud just seems to drop huge amounts of rain and the main cells are very potent. Hva ejust driven down to Bristol along the A370 through absolutely torrential rain with people driving at 10mph with at least 2 inches of surface water, flooding and drains overflowing. The worst of it came coming down the Long Ashton bypass but now that I am in Ashton Gate it's stopped raining and have heard one rumble of thunder.

I think the air has become supercooled by the rain as the temperature back home is reading 10.2C!

[Costa Del Fal]

It sounds like these showers are quite fiesty and few are on the radar.

[sunny scunny]

It's getting rather dark to my west with showers getting closer

It's absolutely hammering down here

Edited July 30, 2009 by sufc

[karyo]

Awesome thunderstorm here between 8:20 and 9am! Frequent lighting, loud claps of thunder, torrential rainfall and some hail too! There is still a line of cbs to the north of the city and things should remain interesting till about lunchtime!

Karyo

[WS Evolution]

Thunder storm passing over York now, heading east.

[SteveB]

A fair few showers around this morning. Most are on the heavy side, no Lightning or thunder as of yet.

HAS ANYONE ELSE GOT PROBLEMS WITH THE NET-WEATHER RADAR

[Costa Del Fal]

A fair few showers around this morning. Most are on the heavy side, no Lightning or thunder as of yet.

HAS ANYONE ELSE GOT PROBLEMS WITH THE NET-WEATHER RADAR

Yep Radar has gone Kaput!

[ItIsGee]

Here we go again mate!