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Convective/storm Discussion Thurs 30Th July Onwards


Harry

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

You might be pushing it a bit there MW, but as hope-casting goes, the panel gives you:

SNN23BB02G_682_761826a.jpg

Are you Jason Gardner then Coast?? :)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Are you Jason Gardner then Coast?? :)

:)No!!!!!!!!!!

Holly Willoughby..... :)

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

There were four (!) separate thunder events in my part of Norwich today, although only the fourth had much bite. The first, at around 11am, had a moderate shower pass mainly to the north with the odd rumble. At 12:30-1pm, a large cumulonimbus passed away to the south and gave off a few rumbles. At 2-3pm, an organised band of showers spread east and produced a few rumbles. Then hard on its heels at 4pm, a storm came right overhead and produced a lot of thunder and lightning, torrential rain and even a brief gush of hail.

So quite a day, and very unexpected!

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Looks like not too far East of here was the start ofall the action again today. Apart from one heavy downpour weve had nothing.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

There were four (!) separate thunder events in my part of Norwich today, although only the fourth had much bite. The first, at around 11am, had a moderate shower pass mainly to the north with the odd rumble. At 12:30-1pm, a large cumulonimbus passed away to the south and gave off a few rumbles. At 2-3pm, an organised band of showers spread east and produced a few rumbles. Then hard on its heels at 4pm, a storm came right overhead and produced a lot of thunder and lightning, torrential rain and even a brief gush of hail.

So quite a day, and very unexpected!

The two that I was aware of were the second and fourth. The second passed between here and Norwich - really threading the eye of the needle.

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Posted
  • Location: Lakenham, Norwich, Norfolk 23m asl
  • Location: Lakenham, Norwich, Norfolk 23m asl

Looks like not too far East of here was the start ofall the action again today. Apart from one heavy downpour weve had nothing.

Well, what can I say? Thanks! :angry:

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Well, what can I say? Thanks! :angry:

:) Your area has had plenty to keep you going for ages now. Weve had pretty much nothing at all this month. Westerly setups rarely work here.

Now if next week's set up comes to fruition then here could do well if the right conditions are there. :)

Edited by Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Lakenham, Norwich, Norfolk 23m asl
  • Location: Lakenham, Norwich, Norfolk 23m asl

:angry: Your area has had plenty to keep you going for ages now. Weve had pretty much nothing at all this month. Westerly setups rarely work here.

Now if next week's set up comes to fruition then here could do well if the right conditions are there. :)

The southerly plume? Could get interesting for Central England- all the best for that!! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Southport, UK
  • Location: Southport, UK

Quite a nice video of the strike on Beetham tower in Manchester earlier today:

Apparently there was also a plane struck while taking off from the airport which turned round and landed again this morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Note to the Met Office and BBC, you said showers south of the M4 corridor would be light and isolated today - they have been beefy and frequent!

That is becasue they're useless at predicting days that come after a low pressure and persistent rain. In my experience the day after such days will always be fairly showery but they persist in forecasting light, scattered showers. Several examples from the last week alone...

1. Sat 25 was meant to be dry everywhere but there were downpours in parts of the West Country.

2. Tues 28 was meant to be scattered light showers & there were thundery showers.

3. Today as many people know has gone similarly.

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Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge

like i said earlier, we had 4 torrential downpours this morning, probably equalling yesterdays totals almost. we probably had 10-15mm because it was so bad.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Odd one this morning. General consensus all round is that it's a quiet day but 21st OWS show something in Northern Ireland/Western Scotland?

21OWS_EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_42.GIF

Must be an aviation thing as the WAFC chart also shows something moving across that area:

3104.gif

If it is, then I think its early hours of tomorrow and too far off the coast

gfs_cape_eur24.png

:unknw:

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I know it's FI, but we all like a little fantasy don't we?

MU_London_avn.png

anim_094d03f5-a85c-b0f4-a953-5dfa97e675ba.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

At the moment it's looking too good to happen - my guess is it'll probably slope Eastwards and offer little more promise than a Kent clipper - which no doubt will satisfy the likes of neilsouth and co.

Just looked back - CAPE of 2000+ along with LI of -6 across the SE.......that is too good to happen, lol!!

But another nice looking development on the latest CAPE run, is the threat of an MCS for Wednesday night also running across the SE quarter!! :D

Further observation...look ahead to the following week, and the day that suggests high CAPE then......you guessed it, a Thursday! :D

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

Don't worry, I'm using the Hull - Zeebrugge ferry next Thursday night so there's bound to be plenty of storms to disrupt my journey! Just off the coast of East Anglia would be a good bet, and GFS suggests this too :D

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Just looked back - CAPE of 2000+ along with LI of -6 across the SE.......that is too good to happen, lol!!

Further observation...look ahead to the following week, and the day that suggests high CAPE then......you guessed it, a Thursday! :(

post-6667-12490508445342_thumb.jpg

:D

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

My Hitler Vid had Cape of 2,000 and LI's of -6 in the Text :D:(

It is an Omen - It is NOT Gonna Happen giving all the Frogs the Fun Again! Nooooooo Boooooo

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

ohmy.gifNo!!!!!!!!!!

Holly Willoughby..... wink.gif

It ain't who you fancy, it's who you are that's being questioned, Coast!dry.gifrolleyes.gif

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

thats such a long way off...It could move more to the West :(

Or the Frogs instead

edit...Weather09..when was there a summer :D

agree with this being to far away at present for anyone to get to excited.....

Party time :(

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Sandown Isle of wight
  • Location: Sandown Isle of wight

it looks really interesting but i think it might be just a bit east of us if it were to happen but then im on east of island,

will be interesting over the next week

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Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

East kent again? , ok cool i'll have that LOL

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

It's still far away but it does look interesting for the SE next week....AGAIN! At the moment it's looking like the predicted hot/thundery spell will be confined to the SE. Still, looking at the week after next, the charts suggest more widespread convective potential but that's looking too far ahead! Would be nice if we could get a nice 'plume' event before Summers over.

This is looking too good at the moment, and anything that looks too good to be true, is just that! Having said this, because we've been the wrong side of the jet most of the time this summer, it means (I am guessing) upper level temps are going to be that bit lower than normal. Any sudden plume therefore, could mean that if storms develop there is a greater temperature difference than normal, allowing for greater height of cloud tops, more explosive development etc...blah blah blah, it's not even here yet, lol.

In relation to Weather09's "AGAIN", I think it should be rather expected that in any plume event the SE has better chances of 'action' - the SE is more than likely to be under the plume for a longer period of time than other regions and therefore has greater chances of seeing storms; not to mention closer to the continent meaning storms which arrive are more potent etc etc.

In reality however, there is still far too much time for things to go tits up IMO. The MetO's forecast for Tuesday is for cloud, rain and cool temperatures. The atmosphere over the coming days IMO is too dynamic to be able to get excited yet - ie there are so many areas of L pressure around, and all very dynamic too, meaning there could be any number of set ups that could take place, either pushing any plume too far W, or the more likely scenario, too far E.

UPDATE and excuse the language - OMFG! Thursday itself is a slight downgrade, but look at the following days!!!! Friday, Sat, Sun, Monday...the plume now has the possibility of lasting for days! Again though, its too far off to get too excited....much!! :(

Edited by Harry
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