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Meto Warmist Ramp, Here We Go Again


Richie V

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Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/clouds.html

    "New research has added more evidence to suggest low-level clouds may be reduced by climate change, causing further global warming. The study, published in Science, relied on the Met Office’s climate model as the only one which accurately reflects real-life observations. The findings also support many years of Met Office research looking at how climate change may affect clouds and how clouds may affect climate change.

    Low-level clouds, such as stratocumulus, play a vital role in keeping the Earth’s climate cool by reflecting sunlight. Because they are so important, climate researchers have been studying how they might react to a changing climate on a regional scale. However, this remains one of the biggest sources of uncertainty in understanding future climate change."

    The research

    "If global warming means more low-level cloud develops, then more sunlight would be reflected, helping cool the planet and offset climate change — known as a ‘negative feedback’. If the opposite occurs and we see less low-level cloud, more sunlight would get through and the planet would heat even more, further escalating the warming — known as a ‘positive feedback‘.

    The new research studied whether our warming climate will result in more or less low-level cloud by examining changes over the north-east Pacific in real-life observations and computer generated climate models. Analysis from observations showed cloud was affected by regional temperature changes and shifts in the atmospheric circulation of air and water.

    They then studied 18 of the world’s leading climate models to see which of them accurately reflected this pattern. This method provides a new way to date of testing how realistically climate models represent low-level cloud changes and, therefore, which we can most rely on. The researchers found only two models fitted with their observations — including the Met Office’s HadGEM1. Further analysis led them to rely only on the Met Office model, which employs the sophisticated atmospheric simulations required.

    Our model showed low-level cloud cover over the test area decreased under global warming, creating a positive feedback. This is apparently due to an increase in sea-surface temperatures and weakening of the large-scale atmospheric circulation."

    To be fair, they state at the end:

    "While this provides a significant step in understanding the link between low-level cloud and climate change, as well as proving the robustness of the Met Office model, there are still no conclusive answers."

    Mat Collins then goes on to say:

    “There is still much work to be done before the uncertainty in this area of climate modelling can be fully eliminated.We’ve been researching the relation between clouds and climate change for more than a decade. It’s not surprising our model came out top because of the amount of effort we have put into developing the model, but there is still a long way to go. This research is only part of the jigsaw and one more test of the models. There are still a lot of questions to answer before we can be sure we’re getting this absolutely right.”

    Hey Matt, try harder on the seasonal forecasts first! :angry:

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Doesn't look like a "warmist ramp" to me, just an account of some research that has suggested a possible positive feedback that could develop if the planet continues to warm substantially, and admitting that as yet there are still no conclusive answers.

    Long-range forecasting models and climate forecasting models are different things (the former predict over months and seasons, the latter over decades and centuries). The "get your seasonal forecast sorted first" comment is like saying "how can you say you think Man Utd will win the Premiership this year, when you said they'd beat Arsenal and they only drew 2-2?"

    The Met Office model is indeed one of the best (arguably the best) at simulating recent and past climate. But of course this is only relative to other climate models, and all climate models are limited by what we put into them. However the article doesn't appear to imply otherwise.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, height 15 metres

    To the extent they didn't tell both sides of the story it was a ramp.

    Here is the other side of the story gratuitously omitted in order to focus attention on the potential for warming: there is a day time and there is a night time. Fewer lower level clouds during the day may increase warming but at night fewer clouds will enable more heat to radiate away. The fact this didn't merit even a passing comment as a nod to anyone reading it with a brain who might think that's a decent question is a rather unsubtle indication of bias.

    Apart from that, it is also another correlation but not causation study. It's not proved whether the reduced cloud cover is a cause of warmer oceans. It could be warmer oceans cause reduced cloud cover.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

    And seriously, how is the title of this thread ever going to promote reasonable discussion? I'm going to save us all the hassle and lock it now.

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