Model Output Discussion

[pottyprof]

With a hint of something more summer like, will the higher temps be a glancing blow or is there the potential for something settled over the coming weeks? Or will my plan of a few days in a tent turn into a boating holiday?

Please continue with your thoughts and reasoning's on the model outputs here..

[Wilxy92]

Hope i get some settled weather over next few days cause iv had enough of the wet weather.

[Jezzer]

Just reposting as the previous thread closed just after I wrote this...

We're obviously in FI territory and as many have said the prospects for August are on a knife edge but this gives me some optimism, I'm always looking for positives Time will tell I suppose, interesting to see if this continues in the next run

A weak jet to the north of the UK...

with pressure building...

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

That looks good for while I'm down on the mainland :lol:

[PB22]

A hot day for the southeast on Thursday according to the 06Z GFS:

http://wzkarten.de/wz/pics/Rtavn10817.html

Very warm, muggy and potentially thundery by Friday:

http://wzkarten.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1322.html

http://wzkarten.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1324.html

http://wzkarten.de/wz/pics/Rtavn13217.html

Cooler and fresher to the north and west.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

A hot day for the southeast on Thursday according to the 06Z GFS:

http://wzkarten.de/wz/pics/Rtavn10817.html

Very warm, muggy and potentially thundery by Friday:

http://wzkarten.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1322.html

http://wzkarten.de/wz/pics/Rtavn1324.html

http://wzkarten.de/wz/pics/Rtavn13217.html

Cooler and fresher to the north and west.

Why don't you use the (better!) NW charts?

[tinybill]

A hot day for the southeast on Thursday according to the 06Z GFS:

http://wzkarten.de/w...Rtavn10817.html

Very warm, muggy and potentially thundery by Friday:

http://wzkarten.de/w.../Rtavn1322.html

http://wzkarten.de/w.../Rtavn1324.html

http://wzkarten.de/w...Rtavn13217.html

Cooler and fresher to the north and west.

well our local weather has only Monday as dry after that rain to Thursday lighting and thunderstorms!!!

[Snowyowl9]

Summer will be coming at last :lol:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1681.gif

[PB22]

Why don't you use the (better!) NW charts?

Is there a law that says I have to? Its my own personal preference and no-one can tell me which charts to use. :lol:

Back to the models, and an interesting outlook as we go through the week. The frontal system that comes into western areas tomorrow is going to take an age to clear through - its still hanging around the southeast on Wednesday:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack0.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack1.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.html

Then as hot air over the continent comes into play, there is the potential for some very heavy, thundery rain to affect southeastern Britain at the end of the week:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html

Beyond that, it may well begin to settle down a bit more, but there's lot of weather to get through before getting into that potential though.

[Frosty.]

Disappointing model output again today which carries on the trend since early July. The ecm & ukmo 12z show an increase in heat/humidity from midweek but then bring in low pressure from the continent and yet more torrential downpours/thunderstorms to keep the soggy summer theme continuing, at least temps look good but the rain is now becoming a real pain. No sign of any sustained settled weather during the next few weeks with low pressure always close to the north but in the longer range it may well be that high pressure to the south of the uk will bring the best of the conditions to southern england whereas areas further north will have mixed fortunes.

[Snowyowl9]

Is there a law that says I have to? Its my own personal preference and no-one can tell me which charts to use. :lol:

Back to the models, and an interesting outlook as we go through the week. The frontal system that comes into western areas tomorrow is going to take an age to clear through - its still hanging around the southeast on Wednesday

Beyond that, it may well begin to settle down a bit more, but there's lot of weather to get through before getting into that potential though.

I rather those charts you posted.

Does look like the east will be hanging on to the rain most of the midweek onwards,so for a change the west will be dry from wednesday onwards.

[Milhouse]

Disappointing model output again today which carries on the trend since early July. The ecm & ukmo 12z show an increase in heat/humidity from midweek but then bring in low pressure from the continent and yet more torrential downpours/thunderstorms to keep the soggy summer theme continuing, at least temps look good but the rain is now becoming a real pain. No sign of any sustained settled weather during the next few weeks with low pressure always close to the north but in the longer range it may well be that high pressure to the south of the uk will bring the best of the conditions to southern england whereas areas further north will have mixed fortunes.

The ecm12z is probably the closest we've come to a sustained settled spell in the last 3 summers. Apart from low pressure grazing the north of Scotland it is very much a run dominated by high pressure as apposed to low pressure close by which ruined most of July.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Is there a law that says I have to? Its my own personal preference and no-one can tell me which charts to use.

Back to the models, and an interesting outlook as we go through the week. The frontal system that comes into western areas tomorrow is going to take an age to clear through - its still hanging around the southeast on Wednesday:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack0.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack1.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2.html

Then as hot air over the continent comes into play, there is the potential for some very heavy, thundery rain to affect southeastern Britain at the end of the week:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Recm1201.html

Beyond that, it may well begin to settle down a bit more, but there's lot of weather to get through before getting into that potential though.

Indeed Paul that low hangs around out west doesn't it and a fair succesion of occlusions. Looks like a nice day for me up here tomorrow though with some slack air (western end of a col sitting over Denmark) followed by rain on Tuesday and a breezy, showery day Wednesday but no Thunderstorms dammit :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

With the revisiting of the talk of "sustained settled spells", I wonder how long a settled spell would have to last for it to be considered sustained, but the most prolonged settled spells of the last two summers were 1-10 June 2007 and 25-31 August 2008.

The ECMWF FI shows the sort of pattern that I think will be near the mark for the second week of August but I would expect dry sunny weather to dominate mainly just for the south from that kind of setup, with the low pressure systems close enough to bring areas of cloud and some rain to Scotland, Ireland and the north of England.

[Frosty.]

The ecm12z is probably the closest we've come to a sustained settled spell in the last 3 summers. Apart from low pressure grazing the north of Scotland it is very much a run dominated by high pressure as apposed to low pressure close by which ruined most of July.

I did mention that southern england should see the best of the weather on offer in the longer range based on the latest ecm output but late next week into the following week looks very warm and perhaps thundery with torrential downpours and in my opinion there is no widespread settled weather likely during the next 2-3 weeks, hope i'm wrong though, this summer has become poor after a good start.

[Cookie]

With the revisiting of the talk of "sustained settled spells", I wonder how long a settled spell would have to last for it to be considered sustained, but the most prolonged settled spells of the last two summers were 1-10 June 2007 and 25-31 August 2008.

I suppose it would also change region to region as what a settled spell would be.

[tinybill]

morning all just looked over the fax charts to Thursday looks like their could be showers later in the week but looking in to F1 land August 12 looks promising at the moment!!

[ANYWEATHER]

Two areas of potentially very wet weather this week as fronts with some steep thermal gradients move only slowly east. Firsty a lot of warmth and moisture tied up with the fronts moving into the west today,and as you can see the 850mbs chart does show that and that warmth and moisture only slowly moving east across England more picticulary and even by Friday those fronts still be close to the east coast of England. As often the case, the fronts are likely to become stationery over the southern ,central, to ne England area so here risk of heavy rain Tues/to Thurs and that risk transfers further east by Fri and the risk of thunderstorms for eastern/and southeastern counties of England. Of course the "devil in the detail" scenario, certainly imho not a big outbreak of thunderstorms ,eastern england most at risk, but potentially some high rainfall totals in some areas by the end of the week. Outlook,from ecm and gfs seems to be Atlantic driven although the worst of the rainfall is likely in the north and west? The red on the uk map shows where I think most of the heaviest rainfall will be this week, the darker the red the heavier the rain...my take on it anyway!

Edited August 3, 2009 by ANYWEATHER

[mushymanrob]

Summer will be coming at last

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm1681.gif

eh?... oh i see... 'normal' 'average' summer , not summer as in sunny hot weather!

interesting tomaz schaffernaker (sp?) on the countryfile forecast was hinting that after tuesdays rain the rest of the week should be improving with sunnier skies as the azh nudges in.. yep, pretty much in line with all current models outputs, however... the azh in august is often cloudy, especially in the north. so whilst precipitation levels might be reduced (hurrah!) temps will only be 'normal' under bright/overcast/sunny intervals type skies (depending upon where you live).

fantasy island offers no hope, with a deepening low tracking across the north introduces northwesterlies/northerlies making it feel distinctly autumnal.

[chionomaniac]

It is no surprise to see the trough that has been hanging over the UK shrink away to the NW over the coming week, allowing some more settled (though not dry) weather to briefly rest on our shores. This is in line with the recent MJO forecasts with the orbit entering phase 6 territory.

There have been updating problems with the current MJO data and forecasts however we are still in a weak phase 6 scenario.

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html

The latest forecast suggest that we will stay in phase 6 but increase in amplitude.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

This is in line with the Scandinavian high that is forecast for around T+120.

Where do we go from there? It is worth looking at the next two phases of the MJO to see what 500hPa anomalies they may bring.

Phase 7

Phase 8

So from these composites one might expect the trough to try and reassert itself before drifting east over Scandinavia. The Azores high tries to assert its authority but never really makes it to our shores leaving us in a W to NW airstream with low pressure centered just to the east of the UK. The best of the weather the further south and west one goes but a cool showery outlook for most.

c

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

After this week and the brief Scandi High and perhaps a storm or two, the further outlook is not very inspiring at all with westerly winds yet again but this time with the Azores High to additionally have to contend with along with low pressure to the north both steering atlantic sourced weather over us.

[William of Walworth]

Not been here since Friday, and I don't really remain much more the wiser than I was on Friday about what later this week will be like in the detail, apart from being somewhat warmer.

All I can do is pray that the heavy rain threatened in the South East for later this week remains confined to the SE and far E. From latest runs, and from the links Paul B and Snowyowl posted, my guess is that Dorset (where I'll be 7-9) will still escape the worst and may even enjoy some reasonably pleasant weather including sunshine for the w/e. No heatwave though for the weekend as once seemed promised.

MetO's updates today supports this cautious optimism for the SW.... GFS less dry though.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Not been here since Friday, and I don't really remain much more the wiser than I was on Friday about what later this week will be like in the detail, apart from being somewhat warmer.

All I can do is pray that the heavy rain threatened in the South East for later this week remains confined to the SE and far E. From latest runs, and from the links Paul B and Snowyowl posted, my guess is that Dorset (where I'll be 7-9) will still escape the worst and may even enjoy some reasonably pleasant weather including sunshine for the w/e. No heatwave though for the weekend as once seemed promised.

MetO's updates today supports this cautious optimism for the SW.... GFS less dry though.

Yes - it is better than anticipated overall. I am not a great baking heat fan, but some pleasantly warm sushine without rain every other day wouldn't go amiss before the summer proper is out

Edited August 3, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Lincs Observation]

Afternoon all

As you will all know ive been trying to make head and tail of the up and coming weather with the use of the 850hpa and jet stream models.

My first comment been nothing has changed really from my friday post, with the jet still reasonably strong with the azores trying to bully it away to the north, However imagine my distress when i see the models late in FI only to find its has split (something that i did see and comment on last week) But now it sits both North And south of the UK.

Just how unlucky can a country be

LO

[January Snowstorm]

The 12z continues the misery

Extraordinary really the way it just vanishes the high pressure that was looking odds on for late this week.

The azores high proves weaker than first thought and doesn't even extend it's ridge over the far west mow.

All and all very depressing but c'est la vie......