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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Short term, not bad if your in the SE, the relatively dry sunny warm weather conditions. Those further NW is the continued theme of unsettled weather with rain never too far away and temperatures average or slightly above at best.

Towards the end of the week it looks like it will become unfortunately unsettled everywhere as a deeping low pressure anchors itself to the NW only slowly migrating NE to the north of Scotland bringing some strong winds and heavy bouts of rain to the west, ooh I can't wait, yet more bleak low level cloud shrouded the hills and spoiling the views of the lakeland fells.. mm this weekend at this stage is not looking good at all.

Longer term, can't see much changing the atlantic looks strong, so the NW - SE split will probably continue through to bank holiday, I think us in the NW are now resigning ourselves to the fact that any proper sustained summer heat is highly unlikely from now on.. August can be a real poor affair here in Cumbria, this year is no exception.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

With a holiday coming up for the bank holiday week, it seems I now only have the hope that an ETD might foce some sort of pattern change, it wouldn't be unknown! As it is, the models seem to be steadily getting worse in terms of unsettled weather. A 3rd year in a row with the 2 peak summer months with little or no extended anticyclonic influence over the majority of the UK. True that August hasn't generally been nearly as bad as July away from NW Britain, but the lack of 3 or 4 consecutively dry days for most of us has been notable.

I think we now need to ask why the jet has stayed so far south for so long yet again, precisely at the time of year when it should be at it's furthest point north. Low solar activity? Increased cold water outflow from the Arctic connected to melting ice? The Labour government?

Dave

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

In isolation, not that much although you could argue that feedback loops are being set up.

I am interested in the possible link between all three of these climate indices and ongoing solar minima. 40 days without a sunspot now and low solar flux.

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/data/correlation/solar.data

Must agree with you. we are entering uncharted territory now with the solar minumum. 40+ days of NO sun spots, when 3 months ago they stated we had hit rock bottom and cycle 24 had started. ooops

This cycle was well late already then and solar minumum causes global cooling, but there is a delay (FACT)

Now its gone on longer and deeper, this could make this winter very interesting. I hope we stay at solar minumum much longer but lets face it if NASA get it wrong who else can predict what our sun will do. Not as predictable as they thought.

This may make predicting the weather even more challenging.

Perhaps the Met office would have been better off not predicting a mild winter - there again its consistant with the BBQ summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold
  • Location: Bethnal Green

My current thinking is El Nino to peak by late September early October latest and then quickly drop to neutral.

SSTs in the Atlantic to sort themselves out for big -NAO Winter.

All linked to solar minimum.

I'm happy to be laughed at for this prediction! :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Pretty soon it will be the autumn discussion and the weather gods have sensed this already with three tropical storms which formed within 24 hours of each other. Meanwhile, France sizzles in possibly the biggest heatwave since 2003 although not on the same scale as that year and will soon be losing it's intensity, the south east quarter of england is about to have a 1 day heatwave on wednesday :) , a few scraps from the french plate but no sooner does it arrive it will be gone as a few thundestorms herald cooler/fresher conditions by late on thursday. The south-east could hot up again by sunday to 26-27c around 80f but this is the big exception, it will be cooler everywhere else and it looks very unsettled across more northern areas, next week looks generally cooler, windier and more unsettled but the SE corner may continue to lead a charmed life, one of the few locations to have a decent summer this year.

Edited by Frosty039
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Looking at the models this morning it looks like summer is on its way out after thursday with northerly blocking and a southerly tracking jet the curse of summer since 2007, looks like very brief plumes ahead of atlantic fronts is the best we can hope for, no sign of any heatwaves at all and i don't classify one day hot plumes as a proper heatwave as they are gone too quick to cause much discomfort.

I think we may have to wait until next summer for any decent hot weather that lasts more than a few days, a very long wait indeed.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Looks as though Xbill according to the latest forecast from both ecm and gfs have this system to the south or over the south of the UK as part of a long wave trough moving towards the UK by the August bank holiday weekend. All a long way off, but what will change more than anything will be the swapping and changing of its intensity over subsequent runs :cc_confused::whistling:

post-6830-12505799260886_thumb.png

post-6830-12505800175434_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ancient city of Downpatrick Co Down
  • Location: Ancient city of Downpatrick Co Down

Well... while the south may have a had a good summer - almost BBQ, its been a disaster up north.. the latest models suggest that nothing will change over the last 10 days in August.. total rubbish, cloudy damp and just not summer

Is this why so many people live in the south of the UK?

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Well... while the south may have a had a good summer - almost BBQ, its been a disaster up north.. the latest models suggest that nothing will change over the last 10 days in August.. total rubbish, cloudy damp and just not summer

Is this why so many people live in the south of the UK?

Its not been that good for anything here in Worcestershire this Summer, damp, lifeless and often cloudy about sums it up.... :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

It's been largely poor in Bournemouth too, especially 3 July till 7th August (22c not even reached in that time), though the last 10 days have been better.

It sounds like it's been much better further east though.

Looks like being touch and go for half decent weather for the Bournemouth Air Festival at the weekend. The Sunday was spoiled last year by low cloud and rain, hopefully not this year.......

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

In isolation, not that much although you could argue that feedback loops are being set up.

I am interested in the possible link between all three of these climate indices and ongoing solar minima. 40 days without a sunspot now and low solar flux.

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/data/correlation/solar.data

Hi Stew

Plenty of this talk on other threads. I have been asserting now that the southward movement of the jet is no fluke, its been going on too long now [GWO theory stands out here]. I continued to say back in Spring that this would continue and it has. My reading of the current solar state and the lunar phasing 'somehow' comes up with a similar autumn feel to your thoughts [posted b4 I saw yours, not that I forecast b4 you but to say that it was independent of you]. I mentioned earlier in the month that from mid month we would see some 'autumnal' LPs cros the UK, not a succession of LPs but some. Well we had one pass through and the outlook looks anti summer shall we say, to say the least. This jet isn't kicking north and even El Nino isn't having the desired effect [indeed thus far I feel it is being 'checked' with AZH very surpressed and behaving something in line with my thoughts on how El Nino may behave in current perturbation cycle and -ve PDO phase?].

Well one day 'hot' wave coming before I think a few fireworks for some on Thurs. Sat looking fairly decent before being shoved away...again.

Much to mull over..thank god for the Balearics come next week!!!!!!

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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