Typhoon Morakot

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 98W has acquired sufficient organisation and convection to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Morakot, with an initial intensity of 35kts. Convection is slowly wrapping in towards the exposed LLC, and banding features remain good. Morakot is pushing northeastwards, but is expected to turn towards the northwest as a steering ridge builds to the northeast. Morakot is currently in moderate shear but this will ease as the storm heads northwest. Strengthening will be slow at first as convection isn't all that deep over Morakot's LLC as yet, and satellite observation will go against rapid strengthening in the long term aswell as Morakot is a very large storm. With such favourable conditions however, rapid strengthening cannot be entirely ruled out. Landfall is not expected in the next few days but both China and Taiwan need to closely watch Morakot. Any deviation to the northeast will also place Japan at risk too which is worth bearing in mind. With Morakot being such a large storm, it has the potential to deliver a hell of a lot of rain.

Morakot in the centre of the image (the much smaller Goni in the South China Sea to the left):

[Cookie]

A huge system this and something that reallys need to be kept an eye on

[Cookie]

the size of this system is something I can't get over.

[Somerset Squall]

Morakot looks considerably better than yesterday, with deep convection now forming over the previously exposed LLC. Intensity has increased to 45kts. Morakot remains a large storm but is slowly shrinking and contracting in size as it becomes increasingly well organised. Some faster intensification is possible partly for this reason, but also because Morakot will be moving over even warmer waters and will maintain excellent outflow with very little shear. Morakot will very likely become a typoon, perhaps as soon as tomorrow morning. Morakot is moving generally westwards with a slight northward componet along the southwestern periphery of a steering ridge to the northeast. This steering pattern is not expected to change much over the next few days meaning Morakot will probably make landfall in Eastern China in around 90hrs time. Taiwan still needs to keep an eye on Morakot, but the storm is currently expected to pass to the north with China in the main firing line. Morakot also has at least 72hrs left to strengthen so the storm has the potential to become intense before landfall occurs. Wouldn;t like to be in the path of this one!

[Cookie]

looking really good.

could be a cat 2 according to weather underground

[Cookie]

A real beast of a tropical storm and maybe even a typhoon now

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed it is now mate. Morakot has continued to strengthen through the day, and it has now put on a burst of rapid intensification in the last 6hrs. Intensity has increased to 80kts. Intense, deep convection persists and excellent banding features continue to spin around the core of the typhoon. An eye is emerging from behind the central dense overcast feature.

Morakot continues to head generally west-northwest, controlled by the steering ridge to the north and northeast. This motion will continue over the next couple days. Morakot has moved slightly further south than previously predicted as the steering ridge became stronger blocking any northward deviation. This now puts Taiwan in danger. China will still receive the landfall but current predictions bring Morakot very close to Taiwan too.

Morakot is fast becoming a very dangerous storm. I really hope people are evacuating, as this storm is now rapidly intensifying, and when this happens, it's really difficult to forecast just how strong the storm will get.

[Cookie]

yeah, had a bad feeling about this from earier on.

[Cookie]

[Cookie]

[shrike]

Is this on track to hit Taipei? Will have to let wee sis know although she be happy, probably get a day off teaching as schools will be shut.

[Somerset Squall]

Is this on track to hit Taipei? Will have to let wee sis know although she be happy, probably get a day off teaching as schools will be shut.

Yes, right in the firing line. Hope she stays safe.

Morakot has not got any stronger today, and intensity remains at 80kts, despite the excellent conditions of low shear, very warm sea temps and strong radial outflow. As I have said previously, Morakot's size is probably preventing any continued rapid intensification. Morakot is forecast to strengthen to a 90kt cat 2 prior to landfall in northern Taiwan. Then, a scond landfall will occur on the coast of China, but will have weakened by then due to land interaction with Taiwan. Going to be a fair bit of wind damage and definitely some flooding, potentially severe across Taiwan due to the immense size of this typhoon. Nothing that Taiwan isn't used to though, and I'm sure the locals are as prepared for the storm.

[shrike]

Yes, right in the firing line. Hope she stays safe.

Thanks for reply - yea phoned earlier, she said everythin shut down. Said the rain bands already hitting but wind not bad. Said had a cracker tstorm before it though. For some reason since they stuck in house she always invites friends over for a party through a typhoon as not much else to do. :lol:

[Cookie]

I hope thier all ok and don't recive to much damage.

[Cookie]

looking at this could it reamage again after second landfall?

[Cookie]

very close to landfall

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for that image Cookie, shows Morakot's progress towards Taiwan very well.

Morakot has intensified slightly, and is now an 85kt, cat 2 typhoon. Taiwan will be feeling the cat 2 winds very soon as the intense eyewall moves onshore. Taiwan are already seeing winds increase, and torrential, flooding rains setting in. This system is likely to cause mudslides and damage to property. A much better scenario however, than the prediction of a cat 4 landfall by JTWC yesterday.

Taiwan will take most of the punch out of Morakot before the weakened storm makes landfall in China in about 36hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

9 dead in the Philippines, and this was just from the outer bands. Morakot's size means it has been and will continue to effect a very large area:

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/169221/Kiko-leaves-2-trekkers-dead-15K-folks-affected-in-Luzon

Taiwan braces for Morakot (article about 6hrs old):

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2009/08/07/taiwan-typhoon007.html

[kold weather]

Yep its size is very impressive, I'd guess its not too much away from the size Ike was in the Gulf of Mexico, which gives a good indication as to how large Morakot is. The structure is decent but not stunning, at times it seems like it was wrapping itself up but it has since slowed down a lot and I think land interaction has put pay to any strong inner core that may have been developing. Still there will be huge rains from this system, even more so now its slowed down and there has to be fears over mudslides, etc.

[Somerset Squall]

Morakot was mentioned on the BBC 3 60 second news. Quite vivid images showing people being rescued from the floods. Morakot has weakened to 55kts, but still continues to provide some very high rainfall totals over Taiwan. Next stop, China.

[Cookie]

we knew from early on this would bring a lot of rains

[Dangermouse]

Hi all.

New user here - but just thought I'd share some info about Morakot.

Myself and a fellow chaser managed to intecept the eye-wall in Hualien (Taiwan) yesterday after a precarious chase down the east coast of Taiwan. We were not entirely sure where it would make landfall, as the initial predictions were for it to head north and make landfall in YiLan, which is in the north east.

Although Morakot was a big system, only the outer bands of the storm bought heavy rain from the north east. As Morakot neared Taiwan, however, the preciptation lessened as it neared landfall - it was one of the driest typhoons I have experienced in the eyewall.

Before making landfall, Morakot reduced its forward speed considerably and hung off the coast, finally making landfall at about 0000hrs local time (20:00UTC).

Winds prior to landfall were inconsistent, with strong gusts and then strange calm periods - however, strong winds were already battering Taiwan at least 15 hours before landfall.

Winds within the eyewall peaked for about 20 minutes before the eye passed over us. Winds from the south west were tipped to be even more intense, however, Taiwan is a very mountainous island and although winds from the south west may have been more intense, they were blocked by the mountains.

Immediately after the eye passed over, torrential rain started and persisted. In the south of Taiwan, both before and after landfall, huge amounts of rain fell, totalling more than 3 ft in some areas. Wide-spread flooding has occured, but as of now, the amount of serious landslides seems to be minimal. However, as more rain is expected and will continue to seep into the soil, I fully expect to see some further slides.

Conditions now in Taipei are calm with little precipitation. The position of Morakot now is centred almost over Taipei, but Morakot's effectiveness as a Typhoon has been severely reduced due to terrain. It is expected to move out towards the north west later today.

Morakot in my view was a very disorganised system which failed to tidy itself up before landfall. Stalling just off the coast in shallower water may have also taken a significant amount of punch away from it. It was also a difficult system to intercept due to the wobbles and reduction of inertia it displayed in the several hours before landfall.

Having said this, it still packed a punch and caused moderate structural damage in some parts of the island, with winds of varying intensity in the lead-up to making landfall. All in all, a decent, if a little disappointing typhoon, with a successful intercept.

[Methuselah]

Nice first post, Dangermouse...Welcome to Net-weather.

[Somerset Squall]

Great account there Dangermouse, it's nice to hear from someone who was actually there. When Morakot started out, most of the convection was in the banding and little over the centre, so I guess this trend continued through the rest of it's life, one of the factors perhaps that stopped this system becoming a lot stronger than it did (the conditions were certainly favourable enough). Morakot's size also didn't put it for a rapid intensification candidate but I was expecting Morakot to get a little stronger than it did, must have has real problems organsing and tightening up that inner core.

3ft of rain- that doesn't even bear thinking about! Amazing rainfall totals from tropical systems such as these.

Welcome to NW by the way, really enjoyed your account of Morakot.

[Dangermouse]

Thanks for the welcome.

Yes, Morakot's size was a prohibitive issue for RI.

If you are interested, you can see footage of the storm which I took yesterday here:

You can also see top storm chaser and chasing partner James Reynolds' footage

The final lowest reading in the eye wall was 28.26, which I believe is 957 millibars.

I'm off to see the flooding tomorrow. Much of the south is flooded out and cut off.

So Morakot was just a warm up. I'm very much looking forward to intercepting more typhoons this year and I'll share the info here.