Tropical Storm Enrique

[Somerset Squall]

Deep, explosive convection has persisted for the last 9hrs over the well defined LLC of invest 98E and therefore it has been upgraded to a tropical depression by the NHC. Initial intensity is 30kts, and 07E is on the verge of becoming a tropical storm in my opinion. Conditions are favourable for strengthening for the next few days before 07E reaches cooler waters on the west-northwestward track. A ridge to the north will ensure this general motion. NHC forecast a peak of 50kts before the system moves into cooler waters, probably due to moderate shear impinging on the system. However, if shear manages to ease then don't be surprised to perhaps see this one make minimal hurricane strength before reaching the cooler waters. 07E is considered far enough away from the developing invest 99E to the west to avoid interaction- however, that possibilty cannot be ruled out and obviously the track forecast wouldn't be plain sailing if this were to occur. I expect this system to become a tropical storm by next advisory.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates mate.

[Somerset Squall]

07E becomes Enrique:

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009

800 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009

THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE

LAST 6 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST

AND A PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE

CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS WERE 2.0 FROM SAB AND 3.0

FROM TAFB...AND BASED UPON A BLEND OF THESE...THE DEPRESSION IS

UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A MODEST MID-

TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF ENRIQUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST.

WHILE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF ENRIQUE TO NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL

DEPRESSION EIGHT-E TO THE WEST COULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL BINARY

INTERACTION...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONES WILL

NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE ONE ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES

LITTLE INTERACTION WILL OCCUR AND ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS A

COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY SHEAR...

ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION

EIGHT-E...CONTINUES TO AFFECT ENRIQUE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR

APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED RECENTLY AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN

EXPANDING CANOPY OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW ONLY PARTIALLY RESTRICTED TO THE

NORTH. ENRIQUE SHOULD HAVE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY IN

FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH WARM WATERS AND MOSTLY LIGHT

NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID

INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT

INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEYOND 48 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW

WEAKENING...BUT ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER AT LEAST 26.5C

WATER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES

BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE ICON CONSENSUS.

SHOULD ENRIQUE MOVE MORE NORTHWARD AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN

THE FORECAST INDICATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 13.3N 113.9W 35 KT

12HR VT 04/1200Z 13.9N 115.4W 40 KT

24HR VT 05/0000Z 14.6N 117.3W 45 KT

36HR VT 05/1200Z 15.1N 119.2W 50 KT

48HR VT 06/0000Z 15.6N 121.3W 55 KT

72HR VT 07/0000Z 16.5N 125.5W 55 KT

96HR VT 08/0000Z 17.0N 129.5W 50 KT

120HR VT 09/0000Z 17.0N 133.5W 45 KT

$$

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

[Somerset Squall]

Enrique has intensified today, and is now a 50kt tropical storm. Deep convection persists over the centre with some impressive banding features becoming evident, especially in the eastern and southern quadrants. Moderate northerly shear and interaction with Felicia to the southwest may prevent any further significant intensification (NHC forecast a peak of 60kts) but Enrique does have shot at hurricane status if it manages to stay away from Felicia and overcomes the shear. As I posted in Felicia's thread, it is very unclear what will happen to Enrique and Felicia and if the two were to merge, and which one would dominate. We will have to wait and see as always! A very interesting scenario nonetheless!

[Cookie]

A few hours old this image, but a really good one

[Somerset Squall]

After the peak of 50kts, Enrique is rapidly weakening. Continued northerly shear is displacing convection to the south of the centre, though new convection is, at present, managing to refire over the LLC but is not all that persistant. Enrique has also jogged to the west, closer to Major Hurricane Felicia. Fujiwhara interaction will continue, and Enrique will probably accelerate westwards around the northern side of Felicia and may be absorbed after 24hrs. As the convectional coverage has shrunk, Felicia is now the larger of the two cyclones so Felica being dominant seems much more reasonable now. If Enrique is not absorbed by Felicia, it is likely to dissipate within the next 48hrs in strong shear and ever decreasing sea temps.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates

[Cookie]

WTPZ42 KNHC 052045

TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009

ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

200 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

DESPITE A LIMITED STRENGTHENING IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...12Z GUIDANCE

CONTINUES THE THINKING OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING ENRIQUE AS

IT ENCOUNTERS GREATER SHEAR AND COOLER SST AT PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER

LATITUDES. FELICIA IS INGESTING MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE

FROM THE SOUTH LEAVING ENRIQUE WITH A WANING MOISTURE SOURCE FROM

THE EAST. THE INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AND ASYMMETRICAL CENTER WAS

ANALYZED AT 18Z NORTH OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION...AND THE

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADANT WHERE

CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORBALE. FARTHER WEST...VISIBLE SATELLITE

CLEARLY SHOWS FELICIA HAVING A DELETERIOUS EFFECT ON ENRIQUE...AND

HWRF/GHM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY RAPID DISSIPATION WITHIN 36

HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE ENERGY WILL BE ABSORBED INTO FELICIA.

ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN

THE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS ARE

INDICATING A FUJIWHARA EFFECT OWING TO FELICIA THAT WILL GRADUALLY

TURN THE MOTION ALMOST DUE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOST

MODELS DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE INTACT BEYOND 24-36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 18.4N 123.1W 45 KT

12HR VT 06/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W 40 KT

24HR VT 06/1800Z 20.3N 127.1W 30 KT

36HR VT 07/0600Z 20.8N 130.3W 25 KT

48HR VT 07/1800Z...REMNANT LOW

$$

FORECASTER SOWKO

[Somerset Squall]

Enrique has weakened to 35kts. Major Hurricane Felicia has been robbing most of the moisture from Enrique causing the convective canopy to shrink. In addition, the weaker Enrique as been forced northwestwards around the northeastern quadrant of Felicia's circulation, and this has taken Enrique quickly over much colder waters. Enrique will continue to weaken and may even degenerate into a remnant low as soon as tomorrow. The remains are then likely to be absorbed by Felicia.

[Cookie]

going to be a tropical depression before long

[Cookie]

like I said before down to a TD

Downgraded to TD

226

WTPZ42 KNHC 062035

TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009

200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2009

MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT ENRIQUE IS

LOCATED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. DEEP

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO WANE THIS

AFTERNOON. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASED AND

SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KT.

ENRIQUE IS HEADED TOWARD EVEN COOLER WATER WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE

THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME

A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/15 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE

NOW PREDICTS LESS OF A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AS ENRIQUE APPARENTLY

BECOMES LESS INVOLVED WITH THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE

FELICIA. BECAUSE OF THAT...AND THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE

NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 22.5N 128.3W 30 KT

12HR VT 07/0600Z 23.5N 130.0W 25 KT

24HR VT 07/1800Z 24.8N 132.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

36HR VT 08/0600Z 25.7N 135.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

48HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[Somerset Squall]

Interesting that Enrique is now escaping from Felicia. Too little too late in this case.

[Somerset Squall]

Enrique has degenerated into a remnant low. There is no convection associated with the LLC and there hasn't been for the last 9hrs so the system no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone. The remnant low is over waters less than 22C now so re-development is not expected.

[Cookie]

spot on

Last Advisory

WTPZ42 KNHC 072037

TCDEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009

200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009

ENRIQUE HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE A LITTLE AFTER 1200

UTC THIS MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS OVER SUB 22C WATER AND DEVELOPMENT

OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. THEREFORE...ENRIQUE

IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE

HAS SLOWED AS IT HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE

REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE IT

LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN A DAY OR TWO.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON

ENRIQUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER

AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 25.0N 129.8W 25 KT

12HR VT 08/0600Z 25.5N 130.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

24HR VT 08/1800Z 25.9N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

36HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BROWN