Major Hurricane Felicia

[Somerset Squall]

99E has rapidly organised into a tropical depression west of the strengthening TS Enrique:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009

800 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009

CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED WITH THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL

SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK

T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5 AND 1.5...

RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION

...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE

DVORAK ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED

ONLY ABOUT 500-600 NM WEST OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE...HOWEVER THE

CYCLONES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING EACH OTHER...AND THIS

FORECAST ASSUMES THAT ANY INTERACTION WILL BE MINIMAL. THE FLOW

AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED WEST OF THE DEPRESSION WILL

PROVIDE A BIT OF A POLEWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK OVER THE FIRST

36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO

WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE

DEPRESSION...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD

TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.

THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC

ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SSTS OF 28-29C AND SHEAR OF 10 KT OR LESS

FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL

ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS BY

SHOWING WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND

IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. WHILE THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE INTENSITY

PROBABILITIES SHOW A 35 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD

REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY AT 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 11.9N 122.7W 30 KT

12HR VT 04/1200Z 12.6N 124.1W 35 KT

24HR VT 05/0000Z 13.6N 125.8W 40 KT

36HR VT 05/1200Z 14.8N 127.5W 45 KT

48HR VT 06/0000Z 15.9N 129.5W 50 KT

72HR VT 07/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W 60 KT

96HR VT 08/0000Z 18.0N 139.0W 55 KT

120HR VT 09/0000Z 18.5N 145.0W 45 KT

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Somerset Squall]

TD 08E has rapidly strengthen since this morning and is now Tropical Storm Felicia, with intensity now at 60kts. Felicia is on the verge of becoming a hurricane, and an eye seems to be forming. I expect Felicia to become a hurricane later this evening. Felicia is currently heading generally northwestwards but has wobbled slightly to the south over the last few hours, possibly due to interaction with the nearby TS Enrique. It is unclear just how much more, if at all, these two storms will interact. They are so close to each other that at least some interaction is possible but I'm not confident enough to say whether the two storms will end up merging. Enrique is the larger of the two, but is weaker. Models are pointing at Felicia absorbing Enrique but this may be unrealistic as Felicia is the smaller storm. A lot of ifs and buts, and as ever with tropical cyclone interaction, forecasting this situations are tricky.

Ignoring Enrique, conditions are favourable for further strengthening, perhaps rapid. Judging on the current rapid strengthening, there is a small risk of Felicia perhaps even becoming a major hurricane before traversing cooler waters beyond 48hrs. We shall see. The good thing is Felicia doesn't look like she will effect land as yet, though Hawaii may see a weakened Felicia passing nearby late this week.

[Somerset Squall]

Felicia is now a 70kt cat 1 hurricane. An eye has become increasingly well defined. Shear is low, waters are very warm and outflow is good. As Felicia has intensified so rapidly, there is a greater than average chance of continued rapid intensification. NHC are now very keen to make Felicia a major hurricane. Going to be an interesting watch this one!

[Cookie]

we're did this come from, why can't these happen when I aint working!!!

very close like you say.

its going to be a good watch

[Cookie]

A stunning cat 3 hurricane according to weather underground

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Cookie, Felicia is now a 100kt, cat 3 major hurricane. A distinct eye is surrounded by dense convection and excellent banding, indicative of an intense system. Felicia has another 24hrs to strengthen before waters cool, could possibly make cat 4 status this one! And she only formed yesterday! Amazing rate of intensification.

[Cookie]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

6.4 / 940.6mb/124.6kt

could we get cat 5 out of this?

[Somerset Squall]

Possibly Cookie, yes looks like it's a cat 4 now, the next advisory should be out in the next hour confirming this. It's still over very warm waters and low shear so it certainly has a reasonable shot at attaining cat 5. Great images by the way. What a beauty!

[Cookie]

makes all the quiet spells worth it.

stunning

[sammie]

I'm just wondering to what other people think, but from the photos cookie and Somerset Squall posted it looked like Felicia is developing vortexes inside the eye? Just wondering I had a conversation with a lecturer last year and he said that sometimes its a good indicator of EWR about to start? IF and a big IF because I know nothing really about hurricanes if she was to undergo EWR she would stand a pretty good chance of reaching Cat 5 right?

[Somerset Squall]

I'm just wondering to what other people think, but from the photos cookie and Somerset Squall posted it looked like Felicia is developing vortexes inside the eye? Just wondering I had a conversation with a lecturer last year and he said that sometimes its a good indicator of EWR about to start? IF and a big IF because I know nothing really about hurricanes if she was to undergo EWR she would stand a pretty good chance of reaching Cat 5 right?

An EWRC would cause temporary weakening as the inner eye decays and is replaced by an outer eyewall. This causes the windfield to expand, the pressure to rise and winds near the eye to decrease. However, afterwards as the outer eyewall contracts and becomes dominant then the storm can re-intensify again, and has the potential to become stornger then when the EWRC started. I think an EWRC in this case could reduce the chances of a cat 5, because Felicia would initially weaken then may not be able to recover as it will move over cooler waters by then.

We will have to keep a close eye on satellite imagery to see if this happens.

[Cookie]

its going to come very close if not straight into Hawaii

[kold weather]

Category-5 hurricanes are uncommon, but it does have a pretty good structure so in this case in this situation it can't be ruled out. It still needs to clear out the eye further however before we get a chance at that however but we shall have to wait and see in that respect.

Have to admit though its a peach of a system, no doubt its a category-4 IMO.

[john w]

Should prob go to Cat 4 but wind speeds in last advisory were conducive for a Cat 3 to remain.

Hawaii will see some amazing sea waves out of this though!

[Cookie]

was confirmed as a cat 4 in the early hours

Felicia is now a category 4 hurricane

WTPZ23 KNHC 060234

TCMEP3

HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009

0300 UTC THU AUG 06 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.5W AT 06/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.

64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.

50 KT....... 60NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.

34 KT.......105NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 130.5W AT 06/0300Z

AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 130.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.8N 131.7W

MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 25NW.

50 KT... 60NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.

34 KT...105NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.1N 133.2W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.

50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.

50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.4N 136.9W

MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

34 KT...105NE 90SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W

MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW.

34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 105NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.5N 147.0W

MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.5N 153.0W

MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 130.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

329

WTPZ43 KNHC 060253

TCDEP3

HURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009

800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

FELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...WITH SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASING TO 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM

SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE

HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH

EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW

ELSEWHERE. JUST-RECEIVED AMSU DATA SHOWS THAT FELICIA HAS A CLOSED

EYEWALL WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY OUTER EYEWALL FORMING AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS

MOTION. FELICIA...AS WELL AS TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE TO ITS

NORTHEAST...ARE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE

EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS

CENTERED NEAR 24N148W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N-35N BETWEEN

140W-156W. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL

PACIFIC NORTH AND WEST OF FELICIA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST

THE LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD

FROM THE LOW NEAR AND EAST OF HAWAII AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING

WEST OF HAWAII. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY

FORECASTING FELICIA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48

HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. AFTER 72 HR...THE

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES NEAR

FELICIA...WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE

MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE COULD SHEAR APART...WITH

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CARRIED WESTWARD IN THE EASTERLIES. THE NEW

FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER

72 HR AND A LITTLE SLOWER. IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE

ENVELOPE OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE FELICIA

MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THAT...THE

CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 72 HR AS THE SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COOL TO NEAR 24C. THE

INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR...AS THE

FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE OVER INCREASING SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE THE LARGE-SCALE

MODELS AGREEING WELL IN FORECASTING FELICIA TO SHEAR APART DURING

THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING

AFTER 72 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 14.9N 130.5W 120 KT

12HR VT 06/1200Z 15.8N 131.7W 120 KT

24HR VT 07/0000Z 17.1N 133.2W 110 KT

36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W 100 KT

48HR VT 08/0000Z 19.4N 136.9W 85 KT

72HR VT 09/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W 65 KT

96HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 147.0W 45 KT

120HR VT 11/0000Z 20.5N 153.0W 35 KT

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

looks stunning

[MR EXTREMES]

stunning the power of this baby.

[Cookie]

really is!

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, Felicia is now at 120kts. Waters are now beginning to cool, however, Felicia is displaying some of the rare charcteristics of an annular hurricane. A solid, circular ring of convection surrounds the well defined eye. Because Felicia is displaying annular characteristics the cool waters may not have much effect on her initially. Shear is expected to increase as the hurricane moves into the Central Pacific which should induce faster weakening. Intensity forecasts with hurricanes displaying annular properties can be quite unpredicatable so Felicia needs watching especially as she is expected to make a direct landfall in Hawaii in 5 days time. However, the official forecast shows Felicia to have weakened to a tropical depression by then as the shear is expected to cause significant weakening.

Felicia is currently moving to the northwest towards a weakeness in the ridge to the north. This weakness is expected to be replaced by stronger ridging in a couple days time forcing Felicia westwards towards Hawaii. Initial movement is not expected to be effected by the weakening TS Enrique as the other system is much too shallow to have any influence.

[Cookie]

still looking amazing,

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Felicia is now weakening, and is now a 100kt cat 3. The major hurricane is now rather lop sided with most of the convection to the south with just a narrow ring closing of the eye in the northern quadrant. Cooler waters are causing this weakening, but as shear is currently low, Felicia will take a while to wind down. Beyond 48hrs, shear increases as Felicia tunrs west towards Hawaii, which will accelerate the weakening trend. Felicia is currently still expected to be a tropical depression as it scrapes by the islands, where heavy rains and some gusty winds are likely.

[Joneseye]

I nearly choked on my beer when I first saw this thread. I am off to Hawaii for my honeymoon late September and couldn't face another holiday ruined by a hurricane.. I was due to fly out to Mexico 2 days after hurricane Wilma nearly destroyed Cancun and missed out on my dream holiday..

That said Felicia really was a beautiful looking storm at her peak and I am sure the surfers of Hawaii are licking their lips in anticipation of her arrivale

[Somerset Squall]

Thankfully, landfalling tropical storms in Hawaii are quite rare, however, I can understand it serving as a reminder. It is much more likely than not that you won't get a hurricane whilst out there.

Felicia continues to slowly weaken. Intensity is reduced to 85kts, making Felicia at cat 2. The eye is still well defined though convectional coverage has shrunk from when Felicia was a cat 4. Shear is low, but waters continue to cool, so slow weakenign should continue. As the storm heads towards Hawaii, shear will increase, accelerating the weakening trend.

[Cookie]

yup weaking fast now

UW - CIMSS

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE

ADT-Version 7.2.3

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----

Date : 07 AUG 2009 Time : 213000 UTC

Lat : 18:22:54 N Lon : 136:56:50 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

5.4 / 963.8mb/ 99.6kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#

(3hr avg)

5.4 5.8 5.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -19.2C Cloud Region Temp : -64.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC

Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 2.2T/6hr

Weakening Flag : OFF

Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

[Somerset Squall]

Ahh, I wouldn't be so sure now Cookie, I think Felicia is in the process of fooling us. Despite being over waters of around 24-25C, the eye is becoming distinct again and strong banding features are once more consolidating around the hurricane. Looks more like a cat 3 to me at the moment, the next advisory should be interesting. If what I am saying is confirmed by the experts, it just goes to show sea temperatures of 26C aren't always absolutely vital- if the upper level environment is good (it is in this case), then a storm may defy that notion.