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Convective/storm Discussion 5Th August >>


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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

18z worse than the 12z and 6z for Kent!

Indeed it does - it has intensified the pulse of rain/storms tomorrow night (could even be an MCS looking at the precip chart), but has pushed it West. Friday CAPE/LI still too far East on Friday...not looking great for us here IMO...but seeing how much the forecast has changed in the last 12 hours, I expect it to read different again tomorrow morning and during the course of the day.

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Posted
  • Location: Didcot - Oxfordshire,UK
  • Location: Didcot - Oxfordshire,UK
Posted

Indeed it does - it has intensified the pulse of rain/storms tomorrow night (could even be an MCS looking at the precip chart), but has pushed it West. Friday CAPE/LI still too far East on Friday...not looking great for us here IMO...but seeing how much the forecast has changed in the last 12 hours, I expect it to read different again tomorrow morning and during the course of the day.

Haha sorry for once i can say bad luck to you guys in kent! :):) Even if i dont get anything;)

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Haha sorry for once i can say bad luck to you guys in kent! :):) Even if i dont get anything;)

A hot and humid 29C for us today, 27-28C quite easy again for us tomorrow (maybe higher) - 23-24C at the very most for Oxfordshire...I fancy our chances still :)

Right...I am off to bed I think...hopefully the charts reading more pleasantly tomorrow morning :D

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
Posted

don't worry Harry, it's long been known that if you have a MetO warning nothing ever happens. Several times 'widespread' warnings have been issued with the exception of Kent, yet it is Kent that sees the action (27th June ring a bell? :) )

As long as its not a 25th of May,i could not be doing with that,you know what happened then :)

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Location: Cardiff
Posted

and Jupiter to the bottom left of the moon too! :)

wow, cant believe im looking at Jupiter.

Also, ESTOFEX have put up their forcast for tomorrow.

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Interesting met Office FAX charts for midnight tomorrow..It sending the front further westwards with a nice wave along it, with a trough in place over EA/SE england...It'll be interesting to see how FAX & GFS pan out on the next couple of runs (00z & 06z)..Another shunt of say, 50 miles westwards will bring the midlands into play

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

wow, cant believe im looking at Jupiter.

Also, ESTOFEX have put up their forcast for tomorrow.

I see it too

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

Interesting met Office FAX charts for midnight tomorrow..It sending the front further westwards with a nice wave along it, with a trough in place over EA/SE england...It'll be interesting to see how FAX & GFS pan out on the next couple of runs (00z & 06z)..Another shunt of say, 50 miles westwards will bring the midlands into play

yes AJ my eyes have been watching this slowly drift more Westwards....

like you say only the next few runs to see if we stand a chance...

As it is, Oxford is not far away from me at present

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

Would love that to happen (obviously), but that's asking a tad too much...just a tad :)

Is 50 miles really too far??....after all, its only about an inch on a map....lol

Joking aside, I am actually starting to gain a bit more interest in the forecast for our area, the more I look at the charts...Maybe its me, but I've seen a more westerly trend over the last few runs...Anyhoos, time will tell

yes AJ my eyes have been watching this slowly drift more Westwards....

like you say only the next few runs to see if we stand a chance...

As it is, Oxford is not far away from me at present

Sorry Pat, just seen your post...Yep, you're seeing what I'm seeing then :)

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

Is 50 miles really too far??....after all, its only about an inch on a map....lol

Joking aside, I am actually starting to gain a bit more interest in the forecast for our area, the more I look at the charts...Maybe its me, but I've seen a more westerly trend over the last few runs...Anyhoos, time will tell

Sorry Pat, just seen your post...Yep, you're seeing what I'm seeing then :)

yes....but not hoping to much at present...but like you slowly taking note of the more westerly shift and wide expansion of the precip forecast

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Location: Cardiff
Posted

Interesting met Office FAX charts for midnight tomorrow..It sending the front further westwards with a nice wave along it, with a trough in place over EA/SE england...It'll be interesting to see how FAX & GFS pan out on the next couple of runs (00z & 06z)..Another shunt of say, 50 miles westwards will bring the midlands into play

Am I right in remembering that to start with this possible storm was forcast for the midlands before it all started moving East. Maybe it'll head back to the midlands area.

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

I doubt we will see something over the next day or two. Just the warm sunshine is nice i think. :)

Still warm now. :)

Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
Posted

Been keeping an eye on stuff, few showers moving in from the channel, doesn't look like much at the moment but it wouldn't surprise me if there were a few sferics picked up at some point tonight.

A small chance for the south east over the next few days, as for the rest of us, doesn't look good for a while, especially with the high pressure moving in soon. If that doesn't end with a bang then that could be it for the summer storms.

Not noticed this heat myself here in Bath, it struggled up to somewhere around the 21 to 22 mark today and is about 15 now I think and not that humid here.

Posted
  • Location: Swindon Wiltshire.
  • Location: Swindon Wiltshire.
Posted

I have been watching the precip building and approaching the south coast roughly Poole area, anyone else watching this?

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
Posted

I have been watching the precip building and approaching the south coast roughly Poole area, anyone else watching this?

Yep im watching it. My eyes have been fixed on it for the past hour or two. Looks interesting with some cells develop further N into the Midlands. Sferics now picked up off the S coast ;)

Posted
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
Posted

I have been watching the precip building and approaching the south coast roughly Poole area, anyone else watching this?

Yeah ive been checking the radar quite a bit tonight,although im more interested in what happens later today ;)

Not that my area needs any more rain though ;)

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Location: Hull
Posted

Yeah ive been checking the radar quite a bit tonight,although im more interested in what happens later today ;)

Not that my area needs any more rain though ;)

lol i totally agree, i have had like 90mm in the past 9 days, not bad ay!

Posted
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
  • Location: Scunny Lincolnshire.41m (134FT)ASL
Posted

lol i totally agree, i have had like 90mm in the past 9 days, not bad ay!

It's great for the garden mate, with no more brown grass from lack of rainfall ;)

Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
Posted

The cells to the south of Bournemouth are really picking up right now, could get interesting soon.

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

The cells to the south of Bournemouth are really picking up right now, could get interesting soon.

They've just exploded in the last hr ;)

http://www.meteox.nl/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=6&type=zoom&x=174&y=283

Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester
Posted

IOW getting a pasting right now ;)

Not sur if thats anaprop near bristol or not too - shows on both meto + nw radar though, but looks anaprop-ish..

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted

Got woke bout an hour ago by thunder. Slidded away eat just as it began to get interesting!Quiet active wee thing lots of rumbling. And now just general heavy rain.

Posted
  • Location: Didcot - Oxfordshire,UK
  • Location: Didcot - Oxfordshire,UK
Posted

Got woke bout an hour ago by thunder. Slidded away eat just as it began to get interesting!Quiet active wee thing lots of rumbling. And now just general heavy rain.

I got woken up by just heavy rain im not sure i herd any thunder:( but boy it did it rain tho! Its still very heavy rain.

Posted
  • Location: Alton(Hampshire)
  • Location: Alton(Hampshire)
Posted

I got woken up by just heavy rain im not sure i herd any thunder:( but boy it did it rain tho! Its still very heavy rain.

awoken by thunder at 0400. Very heavy rain followed for appx 45 minutes. I expect that caused a lot of local flooding. Still some rain here but currently no thunder. Impressive radar returns

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