Convective/storm Discussion 5Th August >>

[StormChaser]

awoken by thunder at 0400. Very heavy rain followed for appx 45 minutes. I expect that caused a lot of local flooding. Still some rain here but currently no thunder. Impressive radar returns

Naa, we didcot peeps, are you used to this heavy rain lark! Thats all we ever get. But, I just looked on the lightning map and it does look like we have some activity on our way up.Fingures crossed.

[SnowJoke]

Electrical activity hopefully will increase as the suns gonna be up soon to heat things up. Been watching the rainfall increase for the last couple of hours as it moved NE from the coast. Dropping some very large totals.

[StormChaser]

Edited August 6, 2009 by StormChaser

[Summer of 76]

One loud peal of thunder about 10 minutes ago and some very heavy rain for about five minutes. Looking at the radar there appears to be some more very heavy rain on the way.

Edited August 6, 2009 by Chris Mantle

[Coast]

Eyes down, look in for a full house!

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 06 Aug 2009 06:00 to Fri 07 Aug 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 05 Aug 2009 21:56

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for western Turkey mainly for very large hail.

A level 1 was issued for France and northern Spain mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A subtropical ridge extends from northern Africa to Scandinavia, where a surface pressure high is present. Low geopotential over eastern Europe yields a rather strong upper-level jet over the east Mediterranean. Over western Europe, another strong jet is forecast.

DISCUSSION

France

A strong southerly jet west of Europe slowly propagates eastward during the period. Ahead of this trough, warm air mass is present from the Iberian Peninsula to France. At lower levels, a cold front is expected to move into western France in the afternoon hours. Some moisture convergence is expected in the range of this front, and CAPE will likely build due to rather steep lapse rates.

Initiation becomes likely in the afternoon hours over northern Spain and southern France in the range of a weak trough axis moving north-eastward that provides some lift. Additionally, low-level convergence is likely to the north of the Pyrenees. Storms that form will profit of increasing deep layer vertical wind shear and large hail is forecast. Locally severe wind gusts are also not ruled out. Convection will likely spread across western and central France in the evening hours as the trough moves on. Weakening dynamics as well as low-level stabilisation

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-08-05 20:33:00

Valid: 2009-08-06 00:00:00 - 2009-08-06 23:59:00

Regions Affected

East Anglia, Southeast England, Central Southern England, Home Counties, parts of S + E Midlands ( NE England, Yorkshire & much of Midlands included in the WATCH )

Synopsis

An almost-stationary, wavy cold front lies across eastern UK for much of the forecast period, thanks to the slack airflow created between a Low pressure system to the northwest and three High pressures systems to the SE, SW and NE of the UK. Pulses of rain are simulated to rain northeastwards along this particular weather front, due to small waves developing along the front. One such pulse is expected to move along the front during the early hours of the morning, with a moderate risk of some embedded thunderstorm cells within the pulse. Attention is then turned to another approaching wave during the late afternoon, but in particular, during the evening hours. Despite disagreement in the timing of the arrival of the next pulse of rain, most models are in agreement with the track it will take, which is most likely across areas east of a line from Dorset to Lincolnshire, though the far east may escape. There appears to be a reasonable chance for a pulse of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, particularly along the eastern fringe or to the east of the cold front, during the evening hours. Prolonged torrential downpours may give flash flooding in some locations, and hail seems possible. Scattered showers across western Scotland and Northern Ireland are not expected to be thundery due to the rather limited cloud heights.

England expects, every man (and woman) to do their duty!

Just checked for Eastbourne:

DP 18.7 DgC

Humidity 90%!!!!

Edited August 6, 2009 by Coast

[MAF]

a very humid start to the day and the West of London had some very threatening cloud cover. could not believe there was no lightning as i came into work on the train. still, the evening journey home looks more promising

[dogs32]

I see the shower's in the channel are intensifying and are heading to the West of IOW

Sky saying shower's will also spread into the Midland's

Edited August 6, 2009 by dogs32

[Coast]

Yesterdays MetO warning still in place:

Heavy Rain Thu 6 Aug

London & South East England: Bracknell Forest Buckinghamshire Hampshire Isle of Wight Milton Keynes Oxfordshire Portsmouth Reading Slough Southampton Surrey W Berkshire W Sussex Windsor + Maidenhead Wokingham

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of eastern and some southern parts of England during the evening. Thundery rain spreads from the south during the day and has the potential to give 20 to 30mm of rain quite widely and 40 to 50mm locally.

Issued at: 1127 Wed 5 Aug

East of England in there too, where's Kent and Essex then?

Edited August 6, 2009 by Coast

[xerxes]

Yesterdays MetO warning still in place:

East of England in there too, where's Kent and Essex then?

Too far east

[Harry]

Too far east

Kent and Essex....are they the same two counties that are always left off the MetO warning charts, yet by some stroke of luck end up getting the meatiest/most electrically active storms? Silly me

Have a gut feeling though they may be right with this one - hoping they are not of course, but most indications seem to have the heavy rain/thundery downpours feeding up further W, up across W London, through the Midlands and into N E Anglia. Depends on this trough though - there is still so much doubt on what the front and any subsequent developing trough, that it is still very much a "close your eyes and point" forecast

[*AL*]

I think any storms forming later will follow the same path as this mornings rain band.Isle of Wight and NE.

[dogs32]

cell just gone up East of IOW.

Also more showers building to the South of IOW stretching to South Plymouth..

Edited August 6, 2009 by dogs32

[Neilsouth]

Lots of storms over nw france from the bay of biscay , could turn into a large mcs ?

[Harry]

Lots of storms over nw france from the bay of biscay , could turn into a large mcs ?

Yeah I was watching those earlier - looking good really.

NW Alerts ruling us out now...

Looks like this hot and humid spell could end with FA! Not good...

Edited August 6, 2009 by Harry

[Mike Storm]

Lots of storms over nw france from the bay of biscay , could turn into a large mcs ?

Heres hoping I will be no doubt flattening my mobile phone battery later..... with net weather radar on continous updates, the joys of unlimited web access

[Coast]

NW Alerts ruling us out now...

Looks like this hot and humid spell could end with FA! Not good...

Don't worry Harry, if it gets as far West as me here at work today, I'll post some pictures for you!

I have the beginnings of a blinding headache:

1 I need glasses for close computer work

2 I need to drink less

3 I need to experience a full on thunderstorm

4 I need to get out more......

[Phil UK]

Good morning stormwatchers.

Today is looking interesting. As I said last night, anything goes with this current set up and timing is the key. Currently looking rather 50/50 for any thundery activity in my neck of the woods.

That CF/WF on a CF (if that makes any sense?) seems to be that bit further west than first forecast but still somewhat borderline. I still maintain that the SE will see the best (or worst of, depending if you like rain and sky sparks) any potential thundery activity today.

In the meantime, below is a pic from dear old sunny(ish) Solihull at 09:42am.

Phil.

[Lynxus]

Looks like its kicking off far south now.

Im very jealous of you guys in the middle of the country!

I may have to go on a chase later ( depending how far west these storms go )

-G

[Coast]

Looks like its kicking off far south now.

France:

*** NexStorm TRAC Report generated 06/08/2009 10:18:50

Tracking 1 thunderstorms

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID Q-3500 detected 09:51

Storm location bearing 192.6 dgr distance 160 mi (from IOW)

Last recorded activity 10:12

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend No change

Current strikerate 2/minute

Peak strikerate 3/minute

Total recorded strikes 16

Cloud-Ground strikes 7 - 43.75%

Intracloud strikes 9 - 56.25%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 6 - 37.50%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 1 - 6.25%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 5 - 31.25%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 4 - 25.00%

-------------------------------------------------------

*** TRAC Report end - NexStorm V1.6.0.2553:PCI

Nice to have an early start now and then!

Saint Malo webcam

[Lewis]

Morning all, just in the BBC look north centre in Hull. Had a chat with P Hudson. App hull and the east riding are going to take a battering tonight! Just looked at the GFS 00Z and the precip charts made me think WOW:D

Be back home soon and ill be able to talk more.

Lewis

[Lynxus]

The storms this year have been very odd.

They have been mostly small and always in the center of the uk and east.

Same as today.

Last year i dont think i even saw a single storm.

This year ive seen s few flashes but not much.

I just hope that maybe the gods will be kind and let them drift a bit this way lol... can only dream.

[Costa Del Fal]

Interesting area of precipitation in the Channel-looks to be heading this way though i doubt it will!

If the GFS is right even here may see a bit of rain tonight though not as much as further East. Its very warm here today so a storm would be nice considering i have had to wait a month since the last one.

[dogs32]

thats torrentail now down in Hampshire and Dorset

and some very bright colours showing up in N.France

on the present loop its showing that the Midlands might have a chance

Edited August 6, 2009 by dogs32

[Dorset_Weather]

Yeah just had some very heavy rain here in Dorset with the odd flash and rumble but nothing showing on the detectors, just had a nightmare drive with roads flooded etc.

Looking very nasty over north France and heading towards IOW/Southhampton maybe? Only an hour or so away from me so thinking about going on a bit of a chase but need to hold off untill the last minute as I have no internet radar once I leave the house

[Coast]

It has the right 'feel' about it. Currently 26.5 DgC air temp and 15.5 DgC dew point in Eastbourne with correspondingly 23.0 DgC and 12.9 DgC in Burgess Hill, a little further NW (barometer dropping 0.7 mb/hr currently).

I suspect I might be on the Eastern fringes of it later, although everything was pointing to an easterly event up until last night. 12.00z Herstmonceux SkewT out after lunch, perhaps we will know the direction by then anyway?