Tropical Storm Maka

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 92C is now TD01C. The system is forecast to become a hurricane before crossing the dateline into the West Pacific and becomin a typhoon.

From CPHC:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009

500 PM HST MON AUG 10 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATES THAT THE

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND HAS AQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION

TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. DVORAK FINAL T NUMBERS

FROM PHFO...JTWC...AND SAB WERE A CONSENSUS 2.0 AT 0000 UTC. IN

ADDITION...MANUAL ANALYSIS OF THE DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM AN

EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1730 UTC PROVIDES EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE

CIRCULATION THAT IS COLOCATED WITH THE CLOUD-TOP ROTATION SEEN IN

GOES IMAGERY. BASED ON BOTH THE DVORAK CLASSIFCATIONS AND THE 25

TO 30 KT WIND SPEEDS IN THE QUIKSCAT DATA...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY

IS SET TO 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12. ONE-C IS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO KEEP IT

ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE

CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS A

WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE

SYSTEM. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS

SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE NOGAPS AND

GFS SOLUTIONS.

THE DEPRESSION IS WELL-SEPARATED FROM OTHER ITCZ CONVECTION AND IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 CELSIUS

OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. IN ADDITION...WEAK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO

PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION

TO INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS

GUIDANCE. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES

A 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...

WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND DAY 3...THE

CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL

SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE

CYCLONE...AND THUS A WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED BY THE END OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 13.7N 170.6W 30 KT

12HR VT 11/1200Z 14.1N 172.3W 40 KT

24HR VT 12/0000Z 14.7N 174.5W 55 KT

36HR VT 12/1200Z 15.3N 176.4W 60 KT

48HR VT 13/0000Z 15.9N 178.0W 65 KT

72HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 179.5E 70 KT

96HR VT 15/0000Z 19.5N 177.5E 65 KT

120HR VT 16/0000Z 21.5N 176.5E 60 KT

$$

FORECASTER R BALLARD/KNABB

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[Somerset Squall]

TD01C has become Tropical Storm Maka, with intensity now at 35kts. Shear is currently low, and waters warm so further intensification is forecast. Maka is forecast to head northwestwards as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north. This will take Maka into the West Pacific in a day or so. Maka has a good base for strengthening whilst this occurs as the LLC is well defined and convection currently deep and concentrated. However, in a few days time, shear will increase which could start to weaken Maka, however this is a long way off and therefore uncertain at the moment. Maka is currently forecast to become a typhoon in the West Pacific but is considered unlikely to become a hurricane before crossing the dateline.

[Cookie]

2 named central pacific storms before the atlantic gets one!

[Somerset Squall]

Hadn't really thought of that. Quite unusual indeed! Especially when some years the Central Pacific doesn't even get a named storm.

[Somerset Squall]

Maka is a fickle tropical cyclone. After looking impressive last night, shear has torn the system apart and Maka has been downgraded to a tropical depression. The depression is very poorly organised at present with possible multiple circulations, none of which are well defined or dominant. In addition, most of the convection has diminished around Maka. CPHC comment that they aren't even sure if the system qualifies as a tropical cyclone anymore. Maka could open up into a wave or dissipate at any time.

However, if Maka survives the next 24hrs, favourable conditions may return. Waters will get increasingly warmer on the northwest track and shear currently looks like it may start to ease, though this is uncertain. However, Maka may well be too weak to respond to these better conditions. If it does, there is potential for Maka to recover in such conditions to a strong tropical storm. We shall see.

[Somerset Squall]

Maka has degenerated into an open wave, so CPHC have issued a final advisory. It is possible Maka may re-generate as waters remain warm and shear will eventually ease, but for now at least, Maka is no more.

[Cookie]

didn't last long but like you said still chance for re development

[Cookie]

now in the west pacific. JMA has issued warnings

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert on the remnants of Maka, and JMA have upgraded the system to a tropical depression. Convection is exploding now and the LLC is reforming again. Shear has lessened a lot, and is set to remain low over the next few days. Sea temps are warm and the remnant low/depression is benifitting from good poleward and equatorward outflow. Maka could well become a tropical storm again very soon.

[Somerset Squall]

JTWC have now re-upgraded Maka to a tropical depression aswell, with intensity currently at 25kts. Convection continues to persist over the LLC, and on latest satellite imagery, weak banding features are starting to reform. Maka is moving slowly westwards in a competing steering environment between a ridge to the east and a ridge to the north. The ridge to the north will become dominant increasing the track speed, in a continued west motion. Outflow is good, shear low, and waters warm. Therefore Maka is forecast to become a typhoon.

[Somerset Squall]

Maka has re-intensified into a tropical storm again, and intensity is back at 35kts, which was it's peak in the Central Pacific. Maka looks to get much stronger this time. Maka is currently heading north-northwestwards along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge (STR) anchored to the east of the storm. This motion will continue over the next 48hrs as this STR remains dominant. A second STR is forecast to develop to the north of Maka in a couple days time which will block further northwards motion and instead enforce a westerly heading.

Maka is expected to continue to intensify steadily as shear remains low and waters warm. Maka is a long way out to sea so this could be quite a long tracker. As it is very much away from land it also has the potential to become a biggie should conditions remain favourable over the next week.

Edited August 15, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[Cookie]

hasnt hit the really warm waters yet

it hasnt hit the really warm waters yet

[Somerset Squall]

Maka continues to strengthen, and intensity has risen to 45kts. Maka continues to feel the benifits over warm waters, low shear and good outflow. The storm has made a turn towards the northwest now as the second subtropical ridge begins to build to the north. As has been consitantly forecast, Maka will veer westwards in response to this ridge. With continued favourable conditions, Maka is expected to become a typhoon by 72hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Luck really isn't on Maka's side. Rather like it's life in the Central Pacific, unexpected shear is attacking the system and intensity is lowered to 35kts. Shear out of the southwest is giving Maka a rather lop sided appearance with the bulk of convection sheared away from the LLC to the northeast. Maka is responding to the ridge developing to the north which is providing westwards motion. This should take Maka out of the shear where it should then be able to recover and resume strengthening. This is providing Maka survives the shear but the LLC is much more defined this time round so it has a good chance IMO.

[Somerset Squall]

Maka has been downgraded to a 30kt tropical depression again. Strong southwesterly shear continues to batter Maka and doesn't look to ease for another 24hrs yet. Convection continues to dissipate northeast of the LLC, but convection is firing to the west in the face of the shear- thus sustaining Maka as a tropical cyclone in the hostile environment. If Maka can keep the convection flaring to the west, then it may survive and re-strengthen when the shear eases. This is uncertain, and Maka could well dissipate for the second time.

[Somerset Squall]

Maka has degenerated into a remnant low again. The LLC is becoming distorted and convection is not persistant. Continued strong shear is expected to prohibit development, at least in the near term.

[Cookie]

thanks for you're updates on what was a strange system!