Convective Discussion

[Harry]

What a boring last week for most of the UK storm wise, with little to get excited about in the coming couple of weeks at this stage...

This coming weekend looks like carrying a small risk of home grown storm activity for the say Midlands through to Lincs southwards...some CAPE showing up for then, along with a nice build up over France... prevailing winds at this point would indicate a very small to zero risk of imports, assuming anything develops over France at all

Looking ahead for some hope, end of next week as I mentioned previously, showing small signs of some warmth spreading in from the continent, with perhaps a brief chance of a thundery spell. Indications at this stage for High pressure to dominate, with perhaps a brief Low influence, possibly thundery low (see attached chart)

All in all though, not a very exciting month thundery wise by the looks of things (at this stage), though a couple of small areas of hope IMO.

[Coast]

Hmmmmm very boring Harry (the prospects, not you! )

21st to the 25th has the most possibilities, but after the last batch of 'no shows', I'm not raising my expectations.

[Snow Cat]

Hoping this is the right place, some nice showers kicking off here.

[maidstone weather]

Some unexpected rainfall this morning - at least it's cooler today!

this looks interesting: http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVK89.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20090813/00/72/ukstormrisk.png

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi MW,

Yes Saturday eve looking interesting for your neck of the woods. Looks like something thundery could develop over N.France and track N.E to clip Kent into the early hours of Sunday morn.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20090813/00/72/ukprec.png

GFS hinting at a Spanish plume style event late next week with temps and humidity on the the rise by mid-week, perhaps 80f in the S.E.

Some storms/thundery rain look a distinct possibility to track NE across S.E England, come Fri/Sat next week.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20090813/00/192/h850t850eu.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20090813/00/216/ukprec.png

Still thats a long way off, and as we know oh so well, subject to change.

Regards,

Tom

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some members after my own heart here. I thought I was practically the only one who wasn't going along with the "the weather has improved quite a bit since July because we've lost all those horrible torrential convective storms and are getting nothing worse than frontal drizzle- and for more of the time, it is DRY!" To my mind August 2009 is showing strong similarities with August 1998 (which in Tyneside was a very yawn-inducing summer month), though Aug '98 had rather more sunshine than this in parts of the south.

The potential Spanish plume for next week on the GFS certainly looks interesting- I'm surprised that it generates so little storm activity. However the ECMWF is having nothing of it, so at the moment it isn't even particularly likely to come off IMO.

[Harry]

Some members after my own heart here. I thought I was practically the only one who wasn't going along with the "the weather has improved quite a bit since July because we've lost all those horrible torrential convective storms and are getting nothing worse than frontal drizzle- and for more of the time, it is DRY!" To my mind August 2009 is showing strong similarities with August 1998 (which in Tyneside was a very yawn-inducing summer month), though Aug '98 had rather more sunshine than this in parts of the south.

The potential Spanish plume for next week on the GFS certainly looks interesting- I'm surprised that it generates so little storm activity. However the ECMWF is having nothing of it, so at the moment it isn't even particularly likely to come off IMO.

I'm inclined to agree with you TWS. At best, the previous ECMWF charts showed an 'iffy' plume chance at best - I did say at the time it was more hopeful than likely

August over the years has often brought some thumping thunderstorms. So far this month, no thundery weather to speak of. When you consider June/July brought me 18 thundery events over 10 thunder/lightning days, which was at least one a week throughout the two month period.

I have not seen anything further as yet to suggest we should be getting excited. This weekend is throwing us some signs, especially in the SE, but as for widespread, nationwide pandemonium...survey says...X

Sunshine at times Saturday and very warm. Thundery rain in places Saturday evening or overnight. Rain clearing early Sunday to leave sunshine and a few showers. Fine and warm Monday.

This is our regional forecast for Sat night from the MetO at the moment.

[dogs32]

weathewer girl from the Beeb mentioned a warm plume from France will push up into the UK this week end.

So hopefully the prospect's are looking better for a thundery break down into next week.

Im only speculating at this point

time to check Mr Fish forecast ahead for next week I think

edit according to Mr Fish there isnt much potentail apart from some thundery shower's might skirt the extreme S/E

Back to the drawing board

[Harry]

weathewer girl from the Beeb mentioned a warm plume from France will push up into the UK this week end.

So hopefully the prospect's are looking better for a thundery break down into next week.

Im only speculating at this point

time to check Mr Fish forecast ahead for next week I think

edit according to Mr Fish there isnt much potentail apart from some thundery shower's might skirt the extreme S/E

Back to the drawing board

Hmm...last GFS run had most of the SE quarter under a 20-70% risk of storms...GFS run later...0% even in Calais!! Temperemental begger, lol. Have to say though, GFS is beginning to point at a plume mid of next week onwards - something to keep an eye on.

[maidstone weather]

latest UKMO FAX and GFS runs reveal it's a no show for Saturday evening now - that was the quickest event to appear and disappear within a few hours to my knowledge!

[Harry]

latest UKMO FAX and GFS runs reveal it's a no show for Saturday evening now - that was the quickest event to appear and disappear within a few hours to my knowledge!

That's rubbish...especially as I am down on the Kent coast Fri-Sun this weekend!

Meant to be a warm/hot one though, 26C tomorrow, 27-28C Sat, 23-24 Sun! There will be a lot of CAPE over France (though judging by the charts, much might not come from it) so there may be a chance the forecast could change...otherwise, boooo!!!

In fact, while the convective discussions at present are so, well, non existent, I thought I'd remark on actually how warm it has been lately. It might only be slightly above average, but nearly every day in the last week bar one, has seen temps in the mid 20s, with most if not all nights at 17-18C! The duvet comes on only in the very early hours, while I've have to use a sheet most of the time.

It might not be our best summer, but it certainly hasnt been a bad one! Really quite warm and sunny for most of the time (in the SE anyway)

[maidstone weather]

A reply to an email I sent to Kaye Forster ( a thunderstorm fan too ! )

Hi Dan,

Thank you for your email. Always pleased to talk to another thunderstorm fan. I love the energy they create and the fact that we have no control over them. I can watch them for hours!!

Yes it does look as though some thunderstorms are possible later on Saturday - We are going to draw in southerly winds ahead of the cold front which could bring in some thundery showers from the continent. The last two runs of the met office model have been signelling for this but the timings will have to be spot on and I've seen this sort of situation go wrong before (showers have missed us). So at the moment I am just mentioning it as a possibility. Hopefully we shall be more confident to give more detail tomorrow - so watch this space fellow thunderstorm trooper and keep fingers and toes crossed that all goes to plan.

Thank again for your email.

Take care

Kaye

[Harry]

A reply to an email I sent to Kaye Forster ( a thunderstorm fan too ! )

Hmm...she nice, lol! She looks a little bit like Maxi Biewer (long haired Maxi Biewer), the german forecaster who got the giggles...if you havent seen it here's the link

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_wpunvbyKA&feature=related

See she has grown up in the same area as me...must be something in the water

[maidstone weather]

Hmm...she nice, lol! She looks a little bit like Maxi Biewer (long haired Maxi Biewer), the german forecaster who got the giggles...if you havent seen it here's the link

http://www.youtube.c...feature=related

See she has grown up in the same area as me...must be something in the water

lol I've seen that video many a time

I take it you've not seen Kaye before? She's been doing our weather for quite a while now, along with Kaddy and Nazaneen

[Harry]

lol I've seen that video many a time

I take it you've not seen Kaye before? She's been doing our weather for quite a while now, along with Kaddy and Nazaneen

Now I think about it I do recall seeing her, but more often than not happen to tune in to see Kaddy or Nazaneen.

I don't mean this in a mean way, but I find Nazaneen exceptionally patronising when she forecasts...I am sure she is a lovely girl, and does seem quite chirpy...but I feel like a 2 year old when watching her forecast - maybe I am the only one with that opinion, and am 40 years ahead of myself, lol!

I have to say at present it is not looking good for anything Saturday IMO - winds appear to be more SW than S on Saturday (well, from what I have seen anyway) but the temperatures are definitely set to rise quite nicely...

I think 5pm Sat evening we will have a better idea

[Coast]

Yes it does look as though some thunderstorms are possible later on Saturday - We are going to draw in southerly winds ahead of the cold front which could bring in some thundery showers from the continent. The last two runs of the met office model have been signelling for this but the timings will have to be spot on and I've seen this sort of situation go wrong before (showers have missed us).

You and many of us here in the SE too Kaye!!!! (does she really believe those MetO runs??? )

Have to say Kaye was looking trim tonight (perhaps a little too trim? loving the hair though) but then I've been worrying about Kaddy lately too....

What with Naz as well, we do have a cheery, enthusiastic, 'fit' bunch of ladies on the BBC local weather (and Mr Fish too!), do you think they look in here for hints????

[Harry]

GFS is looking even worse now! Not only is this weekend now, almost officially a no show, but the potential 'plume' next week looks to be little more than warm sunshine, with any CAPE building over the continent staying well and truly over there.

Not looking good - I think our chances of seeing a final decent plume in 2009 are slowly slipping away!

I did read on another thread, that there maybe signs of an early on set of Autumn (cold air pooling at the Arctic etc, I don't know much about that, lol)...what is encouraging, is that if this is true, September could be an exciting month storm wise! Imagine a colder than average pool of air smacking in the warm humid air pumping out of the continent, i.e 13C on one side, 27C on the other....oh yeah!! Complete fantasism on my part there apologies -

All in all, looking pleasant if you like the warm sunshine - cack storm wise! (SE anyway)

[Coast]

Still, on the bright side - we have avoided a hosepipe ban so far this year

It needs something to pep up the atmosphere as it looks quite dire for storm fans at the moment

[Harry]

Thursday brings the CAPE back onto our shores on the 06z run. I wouldn't get swayed by each run, just look to see if a trend emerges and then you'll get a likelihood of it pulling off. Too far away at the moment as one moment a model run could be showing you hot 'plume' and the next it's showing atlantic lows.

Still think there are storms to be had before August is out!

I am truly thankful for your optimism Weather09!

Also, either mother nature likes Thursdays, or there is a glitch in the GFS system

Latest charts looking a tad more promising for tomorrow now. CAPE building a little bit over Midlands/EA later Saturday, with the storm risk over France shifted further North again. May JUST catch sight of something from the coast...few more runs expected MAY improve chances.

All in all though I'd say any expectations should not exceed 5-10%...very low risk, although any risk always floats my boat

[Noctilucid]

Looks like a brief window for some thundery conditions perhaps on Weds night into Thursday, brief because the cold front dosen't seem to hang around in making its way across the country as high pressure pulls Eastward and a trough pushes in.

[Coast]

Looks like a brief window for some thundery conditions perhaps on Weds night into Thursday, brief because the cold front dosen't seem to hang around in making its way across the country as high pressure pulls Eastward and a trough pushes in.

GFS has been hanging onto this for a while now, I don't think its going to be anything big if it does happen:

Carol Kirkwood indicated some rumbles of thunder to the North today, I'm not sure where that's coming from although one chart shows a possibility of some mid-level CB's:

[Harry]

Chap in the office just told me that there'll be thunderstorms on thursday apparently. As I told him, the last time I checked that was unlikely...haven't seen much since to change my opinion of that :lol:

[ANYWEATHER]

Chap in the office just told me that there'll be thunderstorms on thursday apparently. As I told him, the last time I checked that was unlikely...haven't seen much since to change my opinion of that

I think youre right there Harry, just plain old frontal rain from that cold front, if youre lucky someone may get a rumble of thunder but, it does look like a non event for various reasons, perhaps some "thundery rain" in some places.....AAAGGGGHHHH! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[maidstone weather]

what is going wrong? To reach 30+C on Wednesday, only to turn cooler on Thursday thanks to a bit of rain - something seriously wrong with this setup which is preventing big storms with conditions like that?

No doubt a couple of sleepless nights this week <_<

[Costa Del Fal]

Personally i dont see much potential for Wednesday/Thursday and i think it will be a non event really.

How messed up has our summer got-it only takes a drop of rain to clear hot weather.