Tropical Storm Claudette

[kold weather]

Well out of Invest 91L we now have TD4. Very quickly organising system which is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, not too dissimilar to Humberto as it happens.

Here is the discussion, since I haven't got time. I'm going for a 55kt landfall tonight:

000

WTNT44 KNHC 160858

TCDAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009

500 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

DATA FROM THE WFO TAMPA RADAR INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE

EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED

OVERNIGHT. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 00Z SUGGESTED THAT THERE PROBABLY

WAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. GIVEN THIS...ADVISORIES ARE BEING

INITIATED ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A SHIP

REPORT FROM A CARNIVAL CRUISE LINE VESSEL OF 40 KT...THIS REPORT IS

NOT CONSIDERED TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER

VELOCITIES FROM THE TAMPA RADAR ALSO DO NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM

STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

AND DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT STORM STATUS IS LIKELY TO BE

ATTAINED SOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LOW...AND THE INTENSITY

GUIDANCE FROM THE HWRF AND GFDL SUGGEST A MIDDLE-RANGE TROPICAL

STORM BY LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME ADDITIONAL

STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT AFTER THE 12 HOUR 45 KT

FORECAST INTENSITY SHOWN BELOW IS LIKELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/13. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE

PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS

APPROXIMATE TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO

A CONSENSUS OF A FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUITE.

THIS IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ITS EFFECTS ARE LIKELY

TO REMAIN RATHER CLOSE TO THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

[Somerset Squall]

I had my eye on this blob last night, but no way did I expect it to be a tropical depression this morning. Sea temperatures and ocean heat content are very high, and temepratures at the surface are 32-33C. In addition, shear is pratically non-existant. As TD4 is such a small system, some rapid intensification is possible prior to landfall later tonight. I can't help be reminded about Humberto in 2007 too, so who knows? It's possible for this cyclone to become a hurricane before landfall. I probably wouldn't have said this if Humberto hadn't happened, but with such hot waters and such a small system, rapid intensity changes are possible.

[kold weather]

Whilst that maybe an extreme case another example from the 2007 of a similar tiny system is Lorenzo which bombed fro ma TD to a hurricane in about 12hrs...so it can happen.

It has a tiny circulation and there is explosive convection on the radar right now. Feeder bands are also developing with clear strong rotation occuring. Certainly need watching, landfall in abut 12hrs based on current speed.

[Cookie]

weather underground goes for a tropical storm before landfall

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

[kold weather]

Being upgraded:

WTNT64 KNHC 161616

TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009

1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE...

DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INDICATE

THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO

40 MPH...65 KM/HR...MAKING THE DEPRESSION TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE.

DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE 2 PM EDT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

[Katherine]

Ruddy Nora - how soon until Danny?

[Paranoid]

Now up to 50mph, convection has really exploded recently

000

WTNT34 KNHC 161748

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009

200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDS CLAUDETTE STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA

BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA

OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT

40 MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160

MILES...255 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.

THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...AND ON THIS FORECAST

TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA

THIS EVENING.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS

1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE

BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWESTERN

GEORGIA NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5

FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

INCLUDING THE BIG BEND.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT INFORMATION...

LOCATION...29.1N 85.1W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

[MAF]

3 hour watches for this one now. NHC latest report at 1800Z

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA

BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 85.1W AT 16/1800Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

one to keep an eye on overnight

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/161749.shtml?

[Cookie]

recon have or are flying claudette

[Cookie]

seems to have stalled a little?