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Tropical Storm Claudette

kold weather

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
    • Location: Liphook
    Posted

    Well out of Invest 91L we now have TD4. Very quickly organising system which is in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, not too dissimilar to Humberto as it happens.

    Here is the discussion, since I haven't got time. I'm going for a 55kt landfall tonight:

    000

    WTNT44 KNHC 160858

    TCDAT4

    TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009

    500 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

    DATA FROM THE WFO TAMPA RADAR INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE

    EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED

    OVERNIGHT. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 00Z SUGGESTED THAT THERE PROBABLY

    WAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. GIVEN THIS...ADVISORIES ARE BEING

    INITIATED ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A SHIP

    REPORT FROM A CARNIVAL CRUISE LINE VESSEL OF 40 KT...THIS REPORT IS

    NOT CONSIDERED TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER

    VELOCITIES FROM THE TAMPA RADAR ALSO DO NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM

    STRENGTH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION

    AND DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT STORM STATUS IS LIKELY TO BE

    ATTAINED SOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LOW...AND THE INTENSITY

    GUIDANCE FROM THE HWRF AND GFDL SUGGEST A MIDDLE-RANGE TROPICAL

    STORM BY LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME ADDITIONAL

    STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT AFTER THE 12 HOUR 45 KT

    FORECAST INTENSITY SHOWN BELOW IS LIKELY.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/13. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE

    PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS

    APPROXIMATE TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO

    A CONSENSUS OF A FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUITE.

    THIS IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ITS EFFECTS ARE LIKELY

    TO REMAIN RATHER CLOSE TO THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

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    Somerset Squall Seasoned

    Somerset Squall

    Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds. HATE:stagnant weather patterns
    • Location: Taunton, Somerset
    Posted

    I had my eye on this blob last night, but no way did I expect it to be a tropical depression this morning. Sea temperatures and ocean heat content are very high, and temepratures at the surface are 32-33C. In addition, shear is pratically non-existant. As TD4 is such a small system, some rapid intensification is possible prior to landfall later tonight. I can't help be reminded about Humberto in 2007 too, so who knows? It's possible for this cyclone to become a hurricane before landfall. I probably wouldn't have said this if Humberto hadn't happened, but with such hot waters and such a small system, rapid intensity changes are possible.

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    kold weather Maestro

    kold weather

    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
    • Location: Liphook
    • Author
    Posted

    Whilst that maybe an extreme case another example from the 2007 of a similar tiny system is Lorenzo which bombed fro ma TD to a hurricane in about 12hrs...so it can happen.

    It has a tiny circulation and there is explosive convection on the radar right now. Feeder bands are also developing with clear strong rotation occuring. Certainly need watching, landfall in abut 12hrs based on current speed.

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    kold weather Maestro

    kold weather

    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
    • Location: Liphook
    • Author
    Posted

    Being upgraded:

    WTNT64 KNHC 161616

    TCUAT4

    TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009

    1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

    CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

    ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE...

    DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INDICATE

    THAT SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAVE INCREASED TO

    40 MPH...65 KM/HR...MAKING THE DEPRESSION TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE.

    DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE 2 PM EDT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

    $$

    FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

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    Paranoid Apprentice

    Paranoid

    Posted
  • Location: Warwick and Hull
    • Location: Warwick and Hull
    Posted

    Now up to 50mph, convection has really exploded recently

    000

    WTNT34 KNHC 161748

    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN

    TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 3

    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009

    200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009

    ...AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDS CLAUDETTE STRONGER...

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA

    BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM

    WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE

    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

    STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

    MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

    FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA

    OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

    BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

    AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE

    WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT

    40 MILES... 65 KM...SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160

    MILES...255 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

    CLAUDETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.

    THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...AND ON THIS FORECAST

    TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA

    THIS EVENING.

    DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

    THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85

    KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS

    POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

    TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM

    FROM THE CENTER.

    THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS

    1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

    RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM

    AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE

    BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWESTERN

    GEORGIA NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER.

    STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS OF 3 TO 5

    FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

    INCLUDING THE BIG BEND.

    ...SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT INFORMATION...

    LOCATION...29.1N 85.1W

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH

    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

    THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

    CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

    $$

    FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

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    MAF Experienced

    MAF

    Posted
  • Location: SE London
    • Location: SE London
    Posted

    3 hour watches for this one now. NHC latest report at 1800Z

    A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA

    BORDER EASTWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM

    WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE

    WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 85.1W AT 16/1800Z

    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

    one to keep an eye on overnight

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/161749.shtml?

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