Typhoon Vamco

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 94W has been upgraded to Tropical Storm 11W by JTWC. 11W is located a few hundred miles southwest of TD Maka, but is under much lower shear values than Maka. As shear is set to remain low, waters warm and outflow good, strengthening into a typhoon in a few days time is predicted. 11W is currently moving northwestwards along the southwestern periphery of a ridge to the northeast. This motion will continue for a day or so before the ridge possibly re-orientates itself to the north of the storm which would block further northwards motion and turn the storm to the west. This same ridge will steer Maka to the west too but the two systems are sufficiently distant from each other to avoid interaction. As 11W is so far east and out to sea, it is not clear where or if the storm will impact land. Could end up being a long tracker this one.

[Somerset Squall]

11W has been given the name Vamco. Conditions remain favourable for further intensification. Vamco is quite small which may allow for rapid intensification but will also make the cyclone succeptable to even a modest increase in shear.

[Cookie]

good spot this somerset

[Somerset Squall]

Vamco has steadily intensified today, and intensity is now at 50kts. Low shear, warm waters and well established outflow is expected to continue to aid further strengthening. Vamco has been moving north-northwestwards, and a slow turn towards the northwest is expected as the ridge to the east builds northwestwards. Vamco will remain in a favourable environment as this occurs and therefore the storm is expected to become a typhoon in 48hrs, perhaps sooner.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates

weather underground going for cat 2

[Somerset Squall]

Vamco has been upgraded to a 65kt, cat 1 typhoon. This is based on a small central dense overcast forming with hints of an eye emerging within this overcast. A long feeder band of convection is wrapping into the strong circulation from the south. As conditions are expected to remain favourable over the next several days on the general northwestwards track, further intensification is expected, with JTWC expecting a peak of 105kts. As the storm is small, I think Vamco could be prone to rapid strengthening and could become stronger than 105kts. Equally, is shear unexpectedly increases, the exact opposite could occur. Vamco is not expected to effect land within the next several days and it is unclear just where or if Vamco will make landfall. Japan look most at risk currently, but Vamco could well recurve northeast before then. One to watch.

[Somerset Squall]

Vamco is rapidly intensifying, and intensity is now at 90kts, making the typhoon a cat 2. Vamco maintains a small central dense overcast feature with a small, well defined eye. Vamco could continue rapidly intensifying in the favourable conditions and does have the chance to become a super typhoon. In a few days time, the waters gradually become cooler in the more northern lattitudes and shear is eventually expected to increase which will cause weakening. Until then, Vamco has every chance to become a cat 4/5.

Vamco is moving northwards along the western periphery of a subtropical steering ridge to the east. This general northwards motion, with a slight westward component, is expected to continue over the next few days.

[Somerset Squall]

Latest image of Vamco, still at 90kts:

[Cookie]

I really think this could go all the way to a cat 5, really looking good imo.

[Cookie]

don't think it looks as good as it did

[Somerset Squall]

Vamco intensified into a 105kt cat 3 this morning, and although this is still the intensity, the eye has dissapeared in latest satellite imagery and the typhoon isn't so symmetrical. However, JTWC still expect Vamco to reach cat 4 intensity before weakening over cooler water and higher shear.

[Somerset Squall]

Vamco's eye is emerging again, if it manages to clear out then further strengthening will occur:

[Somerset Squall]

Vamco, after a brief lull, has resumed strengthening again, with intensity now at 115kts, making him a cat 4. Vamco has about another 24hrs in which to further intensify in low shear, warm waters and excellent outflow. Vamco's small size will be an advantage here. Thereafter, Vamco will begin to weaken as sea temps taper off and shear increases. JTWC mention weakening will be slow however as Vamco is showing annular characteristics.

[Cookie]

looking a lot better like you say, thanks for the updates

[Rob]

wow starting to look really strong again now, are we looking at a possible cat 5?

[Cookie]

I woudn't say so rob,

like SS said eariler its heading into cooler waters.

and if you back at post 5 I made, shows Vamco going down to cat 1 hurricane

[Somerset Squall]

Vamco has accelerated northwards today and gradually weakened as waters cool and the air becomes more dry. Intensity has been reduced to 85kts. Vamco is a compact typhoon which retains a well defined eye. However, shear will increase and waters will continue to cool which will force extratropical transition to occur within 48hrs.

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Vamco is the sort of system I like to see- miles away from anything!

Another image:

[Dangermouse]

Yes - interesting to watch this one spin up, lull and then weaken - all without hurting anybody. Superb.

[Somerset Squall]

Vamco has refused to weaken despite increasing shear and dry air, and intensity remains at 85kts. Vamco is still showing annular characteristics with a thick, solid ring of convection surrounding the large eye. This wall of convection is insulating Vamco's core from the dry air. However, Vamco is now pushing towards the northeast around the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east which has been the primary steering mechanism throughout Vamco's lifetime. This motion will take Vamco over cooler waters and even higher shear which will induce transition into a strong extratropical storm over the cold waters of the north Pacific.

[Cookie]

Vamco became Annular today. still learning about that.

below Vamco starting to feel dizzy from latitude

[Somerset Squall]

below Vamco starting to feel dizzy from latitude

I like that

Vamco has been showing annular properties for a couple days now, and has caused weakening to be very slow indeed despite the increasingly hostile environment. A fascinating aspect of tropical cyclones, of which I know very little.

[Cookie]

might try and nudge Kold into this thread.

[Somerset Squall]

Would be interesting to get his input though I think very little is understood by even the professionals about annular tropical cyclones, especially why they occur.