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Following "ex Hurricane Bill" Across The Atlantic!


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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Hi folks, just a thread to follow Hurricane Bill when he becomes an "X" AND heads East in the cooler open waters of the Atlantic towards the UK, whats he to become? ,an xhurricane Charlie, or will he head towards Iceland? ,or will he give us a taste of Summer?, post your views, charts etc and follow him to he "Rests in Peace"! :lol: To help you on your way here is the latest chart from gfs 12z

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The outcome of Bill is still very unknown and the models are throwing up loads of different scenarios, by Monday next week its exiting Newfoundland and leaving the shores of North America,its how it develops across the Atlantic that the models are really struggling with, there will be lots of different outcomes before then, but this is how the gfs has him by Monday next week, quite a potent feature still... :whistling:

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Edited by ANYWEATHER
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Take your pick folks...Billy is going to be very dizzy??!! :whistling: :wacko:

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

The depression formerly know as Bill could end up off north-west Scotland, going by the latest charts

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Yeah youre right, but the models atm are playing the game of "pin the tail to the donkey!" :wacko: :80: :o :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

If you follow the latest ECMWF closely it has the remnants of "Bill" heading straight for central parts of the British Isles. In all likelihood it will probably end up near-indistinguishable from all of the other depressions by the time it gets here, though it will have a warm ex-tropical core.

GFS does indeed have it off NW Scotland and quite intense at 980mb, and most of the GEFS ensembles go for a similar evolution, so I think the "money" has to be on that evolution at this stage.

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

Wayyyy too early really. Gotta see how Newfoundland/Nova Scotia fair first of all.

Still, if it did make the passage across, I suspect, like many other ex-hurricanes, it will be a confined "rain event" for some areas. We shall see soon enough.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Bill looking increasingly like becoming a deep low off NW Scotland on latest runs from GFS and ECMWF.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

if I have time on Sunday I'll try and put a video together, comparing the models, and where it might make landfall, if any, over the UK also showing its track up the eastern seaboard etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

if I have time on Sunday I'll try and put a video together, comparing the models, and where it might make landfall, if any, over the UK also showing its track up the eastern seaboard etc.

Cheers John, that would be great! :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Beginning to look like a storm that would grace mid autumn, never mind Summer.

Would an atlantic storm of part tropical origin produce more rain than normal?, or would all tropical characteristics have gone by then?

More wind and rain though, just what I need.......

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

if I have time on Sunday I'll try and put a video together, comparing the models, and where it might make landfall, if any, over the UK also showing its track up the eastern seaboard etc.

that would be brillaint B)

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

yes they have it about 3 degrees south of their position from yesterday-well spotted young man-hope you are well

I MIGHT do a video/blog on its expected track-never been too bothered about getting egg on my face!

probably tomorrow

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin Coast, Ireland
  • Location: Dublin Coast, Ireland

I have noticed the GFS in recent runs predicting some very high upper level temps with the warm-sector on Wednesday. -4C at 500hPa is unusually high is it not? I assume this is something to do with Bill.

IMO ex- tropical cyclones that approach us from the west, having coming up the eastern seaboard and swinging by Newfoundland, tend to be little different from standard Atlantic depressions.

However, ex-storms that approach us at speed from the vicinity of the Azores tend to be more interesting events. Usually these beasts will have been extra-tropical for a shorter amount of time when they arrive here.

The remnants of Hurricane Gordon in September 2006 was one such storm. It raced up the Irish Sea from the south, giving a short blast of stormy conditions over a small area on its northern edge. It downed many trees in this neck of the woods, due to the easterly wind direction (offshore), plus the trees still being in full leaf. It was 18C here at the height of the wind, which was quite mild for 10pm in mid-September. Funnily enough we got almost no rain locally from that event, despite a sudden and dramatic drop in temp once the low centre had passed northwards.

Edited by DaBrigg
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Here are the latest tropical plots in Google earth, as well as the NHC path and the zone of possible TS strength winds.

GFS and METO takes what's left of Bill over the North of England, however they weaken it significantly prior to the UK.

Most people won't notice much from Bill tbh.

500's are now around -10 which is still warm for the time of year.

What bill does do is help drag a pool of -30 500's south in the Western Atlantic which in turn acts as a driver for a stronger LP system to cross the UK Fri/Sat.

ECM concurs with GFS with the LP above on Fri/Sat, it also make a little more of ex-Bill particularly for Ireland.

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