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Following "ex Hurricane Bill" Across The Atlantic!


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Looks like a swipe for the middle of the country according to old country file forecast. Warm and rather wet and feeling rather tropical so they reckon.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I'll put a video up for this evening with some ideas on it, NOAA, EC-GFS UK Met, my own etc

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

It all depends on Bill over the next 24 hrs.

This is why the models are struggling atm IMO. A Bill that quickly turns baroclinic and maintains his intensity al la GFS and some of the other models will lead to stronger winds on Wed. However it also leads to more of a ridge being thrown up ahead of Bill which means that the Saturday low is kept further westwards.

The reverse obviously means that Saturdays low is further south.

At the moment Recon are finding a strong Bill, with little eye left and more pronounced frontal winds(the highest flight winds of 105Kts where on the east side and not the NE.

This points to the GFS more and I wouldn't be surprised if the 12Z models follow suite with this, making more of Wed and less of Saturday, when I say less of saturday I mean less for England, NI and Scotland seem to get Saturdays band weather regardless, but the bulk of the UK might yet have a semi-decent Bank Holiday, if a windy mid week.

post-6326-12510369060555_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

nicely explained Ice

Thanks John.

No more recon now for Bill, so just plain simply guesswork to see whats happening. Dvorak isn't very good for extra tropical storms IMO, mainly as it needs an LLCC to do it's calculation on, so very much now casting from now onwards.

SST's are currently only 19C under him now.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m
  • Location: Manchester City center/ Leeds Bradfor Airport 200m

LOOK OUT EUROPE, HERE COMES BILL! <P itxtvisited="1">Been very very very busy.. After all since I think you are going to have an "interesting" winter, I better be making sure with studying patterns. But this post has to to do with protecting my European fans from Ill will from a storm named Bill <P itxtvisited="1">I like what the European model is doing. Nova Scotia gets hit on Sunday then the storm races out to south of Iceland by Wednesday into Irelandmag-glass_10x10.gif and into northwest Europe Thursday.. <P itxtvisited="1">The overall pattern is stormy over the northeast atlantic anyway. The storm certainly will not be tropical in nature but tropical cyclones contain large amounts of heat that just dont disappear, so when they approach the long wave positions, which is clearly in the northeast atlantic, the remnants of the storm are capable of intensifying.. <P itxtvisited="1">I am now doing some videos on our free site, the site you see, and tomorrow since I am going into work, if I get a chance, I will try to cut a video on this matter. Since I have free reign as to what I what to talk about, I will be doing some videos on Euro weather and if I can post as much as I want, I may dedicate one video a week to what is happening across the pond. <P itxtvisited="1">In the meantime, Bill may come a calling for Ireland and Englandmag-glass_10x10.gif Thursday thanks for reading, ciao for now ****

accu uk

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

these always intrest me

Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2009 21:00 GMT

Hurricane BILL is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Canada

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

St. Pierre and Miquelon

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Sydney (46.1 N, 60.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Scotland

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Ireland

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Northern Ireland

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Grand Falls (48.6 N, 55.4 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

St John's (47.6 N, 52.7 W)

probability for TS is 100% within 9 hours

Halifax (44.6 N, 63.6 W)

probability for TS is 75% currently

Charlottetown (46.2 N, 63.1 W)

probability for TS is 70% currently

Ullapool (58.0 N, 5.2 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Portree (57.5 N, 6.2 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Inverness (57.3 N, 4.3 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Oban (56.3 N, 5.5 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Glasgow (55.9 N, 4.3 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Stranraer (55.0 N, 5.0 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Ardara (54.8 N, 8.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Belfast (54.6 N, 5.9 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Sligo (54.3 N, 8.4 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Belmullet (54.2 N, 10.0 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Galway (53.3 N, 9.1 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Dingle (52.2 N, 10.2 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 69 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

England

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

the Isle of Man

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Wales

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Stornoway (58.3 N, 6.4 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Dundee (56.5 N, 3.0 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Edinburgh (55.8 N, 3.1 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Workington (54.6 N, 3.4 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Dublin (53.3 N, 6.3 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Bantry (51.7 N, 9.4 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 69 hours

Wick (58.5 N, 3.1 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Aberdeen (57.2 N, 2.1 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Holyhead (53.3 N, 4.5 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Cork (51.9 N, 8.5 W)

probability for TS is 45% in about 69 hours

Kirkwall (59.0 N, 3.0 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Newcastle (55.0 N, 1.6 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Wexford (52.3 N, 6.5 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

York (54.2 N, 1.5 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Manchester (53.5 N, 2.3 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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Posted
  • Location: Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Blizzards, Storms, Sun, Lightening
  • Location: Renfrewshire

I don't think it should be too severe though. I would imagine some sharp showers for Scotland and NI with reasonably strong gusts of wind but I think they are unlikely to exceed 40-45 mph and I am skeptical as to whether these winds will be sustained apart from perhaps around coastal areas.

Edited by WhiteXmas
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

My take on Bill:

Bill is moving slightly further NW than previously, but is due to be pretty deep. METO is generally showing very little development, but this is against the Fax charts and GFS so I am discounting it.

At the moment it looks like Ex bill will stay to the NW of Scotland bringing a spell of wet and very Windy weather to the NW on Wednesday. For the rest of the country Breezy/windy with a spell of rain but nothing out of the norm for late August.

Fri/Sat low is due to take a similar path, maybe a little more SE than Bill, but still tracking over Scotland, this will be deeper IMO, bringing more wet and wind to the NW and showers everywhere with a band of more general rain Friday night and the showers on Saturday.

Saturday will be quite autumnal, coolish, windy, showery etc for everyone, the further NW you are the windier and wetter it will be.

ATM Sunday and Monday look very good for England and Wales sunnier with temps in the low 20's, nice late summer weather.

A bit of a half way house then, nothing exceptional, but 2 spells of poor weather. Out of those poor spells though we get some decent weather and that only gives 2 days of the next 7 as poor maybe 3 as good and the rest as average.

post-6326-12510956995113_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Bill's effects will be fairly modest compared to Bill's evil twin, which looks like a much stronger storm now. That one will use the heat and moisture energy left in place by Bill and squeeze out the energy of a contracting jet stream to produce some very strong winds late Thursday into Friday morning.

I'm expecting Bill to be fairly boisterous in western Ireland but the main issue for large parts of the UK would be any frontal thunderstorms that might develop as a 23/18 type warm sector is advected across most regions on Wednesday. The rapid development of Bill's evil twin cuts off any cold advection for most regions south of Scotland and so the more active frontal dynamics will develop late Thursday instead. Very strong gradients are indicated and there could be quite an active period of hail, thunder and squally showers with very strong wind gusts in the 70 mph range. Would not be surprised if there are some weak tornadoes with this also. Should be one to watch ... and quite chilly at times when it arrives too, some readings around 12 C in the strong winds, and could see 7-9 C at higher elevations.

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Posted
  • Location: Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Blizzards, Storms, Sun, Lightening
  • Location: Renfrewshire

That would be interesting Roger. We shall just have to wait and see I guess!

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Posted
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m

early warning out for sw Scotland and north Ireland would have thought ex hurricane bill would have a reach much further north.

uk_d3_lg.gif?time=1251109908

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Posted
  • Location: Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Blizzards, Storms, Sun, Lightening
  • Location: Renfrewshire

I think it will mate. I think these are just very early preliminary warnings. These will no doubt be updated coser to the event.

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Posted
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m

I think it will mate. I think these are just very early preliminary warnings. These will no doubt be updated coser to the event.

looking forward to more unstable weather autumn winter is my fav seasons will see what ex hurricane bill brings us i personally think it will be

a major rain event with some gusty winds thrown in for extra fun

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Posted
  • Location: Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Blizzards, Storms, Sun, Lightening
  • Location: Renfrewshire

Definetly, I love this time of year along with winter. I find it the most interesting. I call summer my hibernation time on here! :pardon: Will be good to chat about Scotland's prospects again like last winter. I hope the weather to come isn't destructive but has some interest.

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Posted
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m

Definetly, I love this time of year along with winter. I find it the most interesting. I call summer my hibernation time on here! :pardon: Will be good to chat about Scotland's prospects again like last winter. I hope the weather to come isn't destructive but has some interest.

hmm why is there no Scottish weather section on here we need one badly? anyway not to move off the subject of ex bill I hope it doesn't cause much disruption

but will be following closely wed-thu CNN weather had it gaining strength towards nova Scotia on last night forecast maybe not what

we want to hear for this side of the Atlantic

Edited by glasgow-guy
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Posted
  • Location: Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Blizzards, Storms, Sun, Lightening
  • Location: Renfrewshire

Yes I heard yesterday that it was instensifying. I haven't looked at all but maybe it will gain strength from the jet stream?

Also I believe there will be a hot/cold front collision which would cause some interesting weather to say the least.

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Posted
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m

bill can be nicely tracked from here- http://www.stormpulse.com/ for those intrested

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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl

I think the problem for Scotland will be more because of the rain than the winds, we have had a wet month already so i won't take a huge amount of rain for some rivers to start flooding.

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Thats a joke, NHC now discontinuing any service to do with Extratropical Bill in the Atlantic. Advising us in the UK to "monitor warnings issued by our local meteorological service." The last time I heard the Meto werent even half bothered about this event, they just consider it another Low coming across the UK and arent considering the Extratropical characteristics.

Considering the USAF has intrests in the UK im surprised at the NHC for dumping Bill so soon once it got out of Canada into the Atlantic, do they consider the UK less of a intrest if we get hit by a storm than say Florida or the Carolinas?

As its still mountaineering season in Scotland (and if the system makes even a southerly turn on track than predicted) who's going to tell us? because the Met Office sure as hell arent.

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Posted
  • Location: Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Blizzards, Storms, Sun, Lightening
  • Location: Renfrewshire

Thanks for the link g-g that's handy.

True Ross it has been another very wet August so far so takit shouldn't take much more than a few heavy downpours for there to be a serious flooding threat to many areas.

Edited by WhiteXmas
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Thats a joke, NHC now discontinuing any service to do with Extratropical Bill in the Atlantic. Advising us in the UK to "monitor warnings issued by our local meteorological service." The last time I heard the Meto werent even half bothered about this event, they just consider it another Low coming across the UK and arent considering the Extratropical characteristics.

Considering the USAF has intrests in the UK im surprised at the NHC for dumping Bill so soon once it got out of Canada into the Atlantic, do they consider the UK less of a intrest if we get hit by a storm than say Florida or the Carolinas?

As its still mountaineering season in Scotland (and if the system makes even a southerly turn on track than predicted) who's going to tell us? because the Met Office sure as hell arent.

The NHC are funded by US tax payers so not a surprise really, they don't tend to forecast for systems when they become extra tropical.

Unfortunately this isn't progged to be a bad storm for 99.99% of the population. If you mountaineering in Scotland I would use something much more specific than the MET Office's general forecasts.

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