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Following "ex Hurricane Bill" Across The Atlantic!


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Posted
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m

The NHC are funded by US tax payers so not a surprise really, they don't tend to forecast for systems when they become extra tropical.

Unfortunately this isn't progged to be a bad storm for 99.99% of the population. If you mountaineering in Scotland I would use something much more specific than the MET Office's general forecasts.

I might be reading your reply wrong but if this "storm" is projected not to affect 99.99% why is Bill being forecast and spoken about on this web site over the past 4 days or more.

i would not discount the flooding risk to the people of Scotland There are many Rivers that run through highly populated towns and villages in Scotland who.

could be at great risk of there homes and towns cut off from flooding in fact I live in just such a hot spot that twice in two years my town has been cut off from

torrential rain resulting in much damage and distress to the people.:cray:

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Sorry not trying to downgrade those that live in his path, but currently the forecast even for Scotland is at most 15-20mm, which isn't really flooding standard.

There has been a lot of talk about ex Bill, because it's unusual that we get ex tropical storms hitting the UK, there was also some disagreement in the models so it could be more severe, but they have backed off from this, Bill might effect a few hundred people to varying degree's but it's a tiny amount of people for the MET Office to start getting concerned about, as we say, people that live in those areas know the routine very well know and don't need warnings from the METO every week.

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Posted
  • Location: Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Blizzards, Storms, Sun, Lightening
  • Location: Renfrewshire

I agree Iceberg I can't see much coming from Bill apart from isolated areas who may get slightly worse conditions but I don't think it is oging to be severe at all. Although because there has been so much rain in Scotland recently there is a risk of rivers overflowing and flooding.

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

With cold water North Atlantic low pressure systems a hobby of mine over the years, looking at the latest Atlantic satellite image, ex-Bill now looks like a very strong system. Although it's lost all tropical charcteristics, time and again, I've seen a system looking like it is now and explosively develop as it crosses the ocean. Indeed, this time tomorrow it's knocking on Ireland's doorstep as a circa 980mb low: http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20090824/12/27/airpressure.png

Using the Atlantic Analysis chart, you can now already watch it deepen as it crosses: http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?hour=0〈=en&map=AtlN

I guess Met Ireland and then the MetO will issue updated warnings by 12-24 hours.

post-8552-12511317815817_thumb.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold
  • Location: Bethnal Green

NHC will stop tracking it when it is no longer tropical, not because it's not going to affect the USA. It's not like they start monitoring storms like October 1987 or January 1990, so why should this Atlantic low be any different?

NHC provide information on all hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic including those that hit central America and storms such as Vince which made landfall on the Iberian peninsula. They do this to improve their understanding of tropical storms and hurricanes.

I'm quite happy with this and I don't see why we can't do our own forecasting, we do fund the Met Office for that very purpose.

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Posted
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m
  • Location: South Lanarkshire Glasgow. Lat : 55.8N Lon : 4.1W ASL : 71m

With cold water North Atlantic low pressure systems a hobby of mine over the years, looking at the latest Atlantic satellite image, ex-Bill now looks like a very strong system. Although it's lost all tropical charcteristics, time and again, I've seen a system looking like it is now and explosively develop as it crosses the ocean. Indeed, this time tomorrow it's knocking on Ireland's doorstep as a circa 980mb low: http://cirrus.netwea...airpressure.png

Using the Atlantic Analysis chart, you can now already watch it deepen as it crosses: http://meteocentre.c...ang=en&map=AtlN

I guess Met Ireland and then the MetO will issue updated warnings by 12-24 hours.

there of course would be much disagreement on your statement on the forum either way. i still think this has the potential to dump a series amount of rain

on the west coast of Scotland in a short space of time on already saturated land

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Just to update previous comments, Bill about a five on the ten-point scale of August lows, but Bill's evil twin more like an eight.

This term "extra-tropical" may confuse some members of the general public (probably not NW members). It could sound like "more than tropical" like "extra scoop of ice cream" but of course it really means "beyond the tropical stage" or in other words, it was a hurricane once, now it's a regular low pressure system. So it has to be judged on its own merits. It seems to be losing energy just when it comes in for a landfall across western Ireland on Tuesday night. If it held the intensity shown at 21z and 00z around 20W up to landfall, then it could produce 50 mph gusts and squally showers. But it looks like it will be more like 40 mph gusts and ordinary showers. Where it might get interesting would be if an active cold front developed across central England on Wednesday, because of the high thickness values and the fairly sharp trough, but the problem there is, the next system (Bill's evil twin) is racing along behind and stealing most of the energy, stealing Bill's thunder so to speak.

And that's where things will get really active because this second low has nothing dragging on it, and will crash into the upper vortex over Scotland on Thursday night, so it appears that very strong winds will develop in a zone from central Ireland north to central Scotland, including the northern half of England. I would not be surprised to see gusts to 65 or 70 mph developing with this one. Fronts further south should be sharp and quite active as they whip through on Thursday night and Friday morning. And in the strong wind zone, being August with this low freezing level and the warming of the land through the past week (at that point) conditions will be violently unstable and there could be some locally intense storms developing, with hail and even a tornado risk. Air temperatures are going to be heading down to around 12 C in this wrap around flow and with waters near 17 C in the Irish Sea, the waterspout to tornado cycle will switch on quite readily.

Readers in Ireland should note that we are currently in the replay of the good (tonight), the bad (Wednesday) and the ugly (Thursday) as three active frontal systems line up for their chance to add to the rainfall surplus in western Ireland. It's looking like a total of about 50 mms more rain over the three systems, and a bit more wind each time, like 30 mph, 45 mph, 60 mph as they come through. The Thursday storm (evil twin and/or ugly) is going to arrive quite early in the day in western Ireland, but mid-day in NI and Dublin area, and evening in Scotland and northern England. It will then blow for about 24 hours in many of these areas, so it isn't just going to scream through in a few hours.

So, I would say this, keep an eye on Bill which might try to have one last gasp, but Bill's evil twin is rough and ready and just because he was never a hurricane, he will have something to prove.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Carnoustie Angus Scotland. (week days) Dundee (weekends)
  • Location: Carnoustie Angus Scotland. (week days) Dundee (weekends)

Thank you Roger, plain, simple and very easy to understand.

Mandy

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Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL

The weather has been a bit boring at the moment..... :lol:vlcsnap-5626217.jpg

Edited by Snowman0697
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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Wednesday's UKMO FAX chart for ex-Bill:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax48s.gif

The centre of the low is now around 150 miles further south than suggested this morning...

Thats much further south,and doesn`t look so strong for winds,there will be alot of rain from this.

Strong to even Severe gales was mentioned on the forecast at 6.25. :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

The Current Information regarding Extra tropical Bill can be found here . EXTRATROPICAL BILL INFO HERE

This info includes current location , wind speed and rain amounts , as well as wave heights.

Latest sat pic of bill approaching us is below . (from the metoffice)

Notice it still has the swirls of a tropical cyclone.

eurvis_sat_200908241800.jpg

Chris

Edited by snowmadchrisuk
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Interestingly the mountain forecast for the Peak District on the Met' Office web page gives gusts up to 70 mph on Wednesday above 400m. As the moor behind my house is at a general level of 350m I would expect a few gusts of 60-65 mph if they're correct.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Hi folks, havent posted in a long while.

I am interested by Thursdays storm feature, could be potentially nasty as that deepens quickly and pulls north

towards the west of Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png

Must be watched, has the potential to be a rather vicious summer storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level

It look as though it's gonna have to do a really sharp left hand turn soon to avoid going into the bay of biscay?

I was just looking at the metosat loop and wouldn't be surprised if it ended up much further south than expected?

http://wind.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/meteosat.cgi?speed=8&count=16&intervall=30&refresh=10&playmode=Endlos_mit_R%FCcklauf

Edited by cyclonic happiness
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I think the low centre will pull up just in time to take a track past Donegal and into western Scotland, but a lot of the energy will be directed towards southwest England and the Channel, northern France by the track and the shape of the cloud mass. This is part of the process by which the storm is weakening relative to its sustained 60 knot winds around Sable Island on Sunday, and probably sustained 40 knot winds now.

The 18z GFS continues the same general trends and deepens the second low rapidly near Northern Ireland.

The thing we may need to watch with Bill is potential for an active cold front to develop over England, as thicknesses first rise to about 567 dm then fall fairly rapidly later in the day. This won't be much of a cold push because of the rising jet stream with the next disturbance, but might be enough frontal dynamics to set off a few storms. The second low produces a rapid thickness drop to below 546 dm which is quite low for this time of year and represents a freezing level of perhaps 10,000 feet. This makes hail quite likely on Friday.

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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Seems to me whats happened overnight is that as the Barocyclonic Leaf exploded around ex-Bills core it sent the cyclonic remnants of the circulation SouthEastwards towards the Iberian Coast. This has now almost dissipated but if you play it back on a Loop from 2000GMT yesterday to 1200GMT today you can clearly see this is whats happened.

We wont see the circulation remnant of ex-Bill hitting the UK now but rather its tropical effects being embedded within the Low that formed from the Leaf overnight off the Greenland Coast. Any Circulation that comes from this now will purely be Low pressure based and not ex-tropical storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

The Atlantic is very complicated atm and I am not saying what's right or wrong, but I think the circulation is still there as expected.

What is heading towards Iberia, is simply a front caused by warm air being pushed up from ex-bill, mixing with some slightly cooler air.

The 850 chart shows what I think is still the circulation of ex-bill embedded within the very warm +10C pool, clearly baroclinic with it's warm and cold sectors.

I've tried to draw on the sat picture using the METO fax for that time where the low pressures are (marked with an X) and the major fronts.

(Sorry it's very childlike as I don't have much time).

The problem with ex-bill and the main reason why it fails to develop as expected is because of the lack of pronounced clear warm and cold sectors, it's still largely a mess which then develops into an Open wave as it crosses Ireland.

Maybe a lack of JS interaction.

post-6326-12512017522528_thumb.png

post-6326-12512017712181_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Larbert
  • Location: Larbert

ex-Bill has dropped to 983mb on the latest Atlantic Analysis.

The shipping forecast says "expected 990mb by 0700 tomorrow", so it's deeper than suggested now...

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