Past Summer Comparisons

[Nick.F]

Been a great summer here, quite sunny, not too hot (not reached 30c yet), definitely not cold, and below long term average rainfall.

91% of days since june 1st over 21c, 85% of days since 1st June with trace or no rainfall, 17.52c three month mean. 2 sunless days since 1st May. Spot on the long term av for sunshine.

August has been great - mean temp 19.0c, mean max 24.7, 33% long term av rainfall (it's like a dustbowl around here, today when the wind got up, huge dark clouds of dry soil have been blowing off the fields), in fact no meaningful "good rain" since Feb.

This summer has been way better than the previous two, but not as good as 2003. And a brief look at relevant stats for 2006, show that it was just a different summer, good but in different ways to this year, higher temps & more settled etc. But no better than this year.

[Duane S.]

The long-term average max for most of the SE in summer (from the sites I've seen) is 22-23, compared to about 21 in the Midlands, 20 in Wales and 18-19 in N Ireland and most of Scotland. So only about 4-5C from NW to SE. However in recent years there has a tendency for the SE to be repeatedly 6-8C warmer than anywhere else (even elsewhere in England), to see London 10C+ warmer than Belfast and Glasgow hasn't been uncommon. So what I'm getting at is that the gap which has always been there is becoming much wider- ie the SE seems to be getting the lion's share of any warmth/warming.

The statistic which really emphasises this can be seen at http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/hottest_days.htm; which gives the location of the hottest temp in the UK that year. Prior to the 1990s it was not unusual to see it being recorded outside the SE/East Anglia region (sometimes way outside, see 1977 and 1978); yet it has been in the SE every year since 1997. There does seem to have been another run of SE-biased summers in the 20s and early 30s though.

Been a far from 'memerable' summer here on the central southern coast. August been decent, July a complete washout and June was mixed.

That link you posted to show the hottest days is quite staggering IMO. The average hottest day over the period 1900-2009 is 32.2

The past 3 years have an average max recorded temp of just 30.5. Starting at the year 1900 this low 3 year max temp average didn't occur for 64 years until the years 1962-1964 came in at a lowly 29.8!!

Years in the decade where the average max temperature over the past 110 years (of 32.2) OR ABOVE was achieved...

1900-1909 6 times

1910-1919 7 times

1920-1929 8 times

1930-1939 7 times

1940-1949 9 times

1950-1959 6 times

1960-1969 4 times

1970-1979 3 times

1980-1989 2 times

1990-1999 7 times

20000-2009 6 times

Average max temp of 32.2 or above acheived...

1900-1954 40 times (out of 55 years)

1955-2009 25 times (out of 55 years)

The last 2 decades (1990-2009) have seen the average matched or topped THIRTEEN times. How many times has this occured (there were 13 or more years where the temperature exceeded the average maximum temperature) during other the 20 year periods?

1900-1919 YES

1910-1929 YES

1920-1939 YES

1930-1949 YES

1940-1959 YES

1950-1969 NO

1960-1979 NO

1970-1989 NO

1980-1999 NO

Delving deeper in I was shocked to discover that if I take the run of years during the infamous 'Modern Summer' era of between 1989 and 2006 the average MAX temp comes in at 33.36. Note: I purposely started and finished with two years of more extreme temps (1989 of 34.4 and 2006 of 36.5). It didn't take long to find a similar lengthy period which recorded similar temperatures. A run of TWENTY SIX consecutive years (1932 - 1957) in which the max temperature recorded in those years never dropped below 30 degrees and came in only fractionally under recent warm stint at 33.01! I was still expecting this recent warm spell to blow everything else that had come before it out of the water! Not so.

It became very quickly apparent that no careful manipulation of the figures would be required (not that I would have done this anyway ;-) ). Whatever I did seemed to show more and more that nothing remarkable has happened to us in the last xx years. Take the first 30 years of the period 1900-2009 and compare to the last 30 years, the average max temp recorded is 32.35 for the former, 32.3 for the latter!

Add into that the inevitable urbanisation effect of latter years & the strange fact that why exactly did Camden record quite SO many 'high scores' (21 in fact) up until 1968 before suddenly none thereafter. More plus better equipped reporting from other areas (that may well have recorded higher figures than others in earlier years had they been up and working at the time)

Further proof that the age we live in is experiencing absolutely nothing out of the ordinary whatsover.

Edited August 29, 2009 by s4lancia

[Nick.F]

Fascinating

Overall annual means have clearly increased, but summer temps (last 30 years) don't appear to be out of the ordinary. Interesting.

What does that mean for AGW theory?

[Summer of 95]

Well my take on this summer from a Lake District perspective in overview has to be a poor one, one half decent month in June followed by two poor months in July and August; July for consistent wetness and cool maximum temperatures excluding the opening 4 days and August for its general unsettled weather and dullness - once again a very dull August we have had very very little sunshine this month which has made for a rather depressing feel.

Apart from late June and early July we have had no real very warm conditions to speak of, I've lost count on the number of days that have failed to hit 20 degrees..

In overview a poor summer here in the Lake District, not as bad as 2007 or 2008 but perhaps on a par with the relatively poor 2002.

I agree- 2002 or 1998, or to some extent 1993 are the best comparisons here. The overriding theme being yet again the lack of any prolonged (7 day+) warm, sunny, dry spell- note the words "sunny" and "dry" which prevented the end of June/early July spell counting. Although we had a few 25Cs in the first half of the summer (not always in sunshine, mind) since the second week of July it's almost never got near 25, despite reaching 20 quite a few times (though several days maxed at 17-18 during July, and this week). A very disappointing second half of the summer indeed, in fact the 2000s have so far given one solitary day above 30C in August here (The 1990s had seven). Also 2009 is looking like the 5th August of the 2000s to fail to reach 26C- only 3 did so in the 90s (those 3 consecutive poor ones 1992-3-4).

[Weather-history]

Some data I have stumbled across for Slough, Berks.

Number of occasions that 80F (26.7C) or more were recorded for these years

1898: 19

1899: 31

1900: 23

1901: 19

1902: 9

1903: 6

1904: 14

1905: 14

1906: 21

1907: 0

[Methuselah]

Fascinating

Overall annual means have clearly increased, but summer temps (last 30 years) don't appear to be out of the ordinary. Interesting.

What does that mean for AGW theory?

I'd guess, that specific annual absolute maxima have almost nothing to do with/say about AGW theory...Was 1970 (one day above 90^of?) on a par with 1976, for example???

[Duane S.]

I'd guess, that specific annual absolute maxima have almost nothing to do with/say about AGW theory...Was 1970 (one day above 90^of?) on a par with 1976, for example???

Yeah but it works both ways. 2003's record 38.5 temperature was (still is) pretty much solely put down to the effects of AGW by many.

[Methuselah]

Yeah but it works both ways. 2003's record 38.5 temperature was (still is) pretty much solely put down to the effects of AGW by many.

Yes. I agree 100%! A one-off exceptional phenomenon doesn't make a trend, prove or disprove GW/GC...The exceptional cold of January 1987 was another good example...

But, the frequency of days on which any arbitrary limits are breached just might; if that frequency changes significantly and systematically over time?? If anyone has access to the relevant data (cold as well as hot) I'd greatly appreciate it?

If not, I'm merely guessing, and relying on that somewhat unreliable entity known as my memory!

[J10]

Looking at some of the regional and National variations of the weather this simmer, based on figures from the Met Office

Firstly I'll start with Wales,

Rain There was a total of 388.4mm of rain (151% of average rainfall), however most of this was in July with 215.9mm (with 293% of average rainfall), and July saw the 2nd highest rainfall in Wales since records began aback in 1914. June in contrast saw 77.4mm and August 95.1, both seeing 94% of normal rainfall.

Sunshine The total sunshine was 527.6 hrs of sunshine (102% of normal sun). July had 156.8 hrs (87% of average), August had 156.9hrs (93% of average), and June was the sunniest month with 214 hrs (129% of average).

Average Max Temp was 18.4c for the 3 months (0.1c above 1971-2000 average), July lowest at 18.2c (0.9c below), June on 18.4c (1.6c above) and August highest at 18.5c (but still 0.3c below).

South East England And Central Southern England

Rain There was a total of 161.9mm of rain (104% of average rainfall), however most of this was in July with 85.6mm (with 194% of average rainfall) June in contrast saw 56.4mm (60% of normal) and August saw 42.4m, (77% of normal rainfall).

Sunshine The total sunshine was 635.5 hrs of sunshine (104% of normal sun). July had 204.8 hrs (98% of average), August had 200.4hrs (98% of average), and June was the sunniest month with 230.3 hrs (118% of average).

Average Max Temp was 21.3c for the 3 months (0.5c above 1971-2000 average), June saw 20.7c (1.7c above average), July saw 21.7c (0.5c below), and August highest at 22.0c ( 0.4c below).

[johnholmes]

Looking at some of the regional and National variations of the weather this simmer, based on figures from the Met Office

Firstly I'll start with Wales,

Rain There was a total of 388.4mm of rain (151% of average rainfall), however most of this was in July with 215.9mm (with 293% of average rainfall), and July saw the 2nd highest rainfall in Wales since records began aback in 1914. June in contrast saw 77.4mm and August 95.1, both seeing 94% of normal rainfall.

Sunshine The total sunshine was 527.6 hrs of sunshine (102% of normal sun). July had 156.8 hrs (87% of average), August had 156.9hrs (93% of average), and June was the sunniest month with 214 hrs (129% of average).

Max Temp was 18.4c for the 3 months (0.1c above 1971-2000 average), July lowest at 18.2c (0.9c below), June on 18.4c (1.6c above) and August highest at 18.5 (but still 0.3c below).

SE England to follow

one minor quibble Julian

Max temp you quote is actually the Average Max temp

Max temp is whatever was the highest in each month

before someone else jumps in and says its not correct!

[J10]

Amended to put Average Max Temp.

Cheers John

[J10]

North West England and North Wales

Rain There was a total of 395.3mm of rain (156% of average rainfall), however most of this was in July with 200.4mm (with 259% of average rainfall), July was the wettest ever in the series going back to 1914. June in contrast saw 68.8mm (80% of normal) and August saw 126.1m, (131% of normal rainfall).

Sunshine The total sunshine was 502.4 hrs of sunshine (99.5% of normal sun). July had 152.8 hrs (87% of average), August had 146.8hrs (91% of average), and June was the sunniest month with 202.8 hrs (121% of average).

Average Max Temp was 18.5c for the 3 months (0.4c above 1971-2000 average), June saw 18.3c (1.6c above average), July saw 18.6c (0.3c below), and August also at 18.6c (level to average).

So in summary

July was wet everywhere, but very wet for Wales and NW England, with either the wettest or 2nd wettest figure in the series here. June was dry across the board, but big variations for August, it was dry over SE England, slightly drier than average for Wales, but wetter than average over NW England.

In terms of Average Max Temps, June was was warm around 1.6c above average, July was below average but around 0.3 to 0.9c, while August was around or slightly below average. So with comparisons to averages, not that much regional variation.

Sunshine was above average in June, with between 115-130% of average sunshine. It was well below in July for Wales and NW England at around 87%, but only just below average for SE England 98% here. In August, again below average sunshine, at around 92% for Wales and NW England, just below average for SE England.

While the regional variations are there, certainly with Rainfall in July, and generally in August, when compared to averages, they were less than I expected.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/datasets/index.html#

If anyone wants me to do a similar exercise, for their nation or region, I am happy to do so based on the data from the link provided.

[Nick.F]

Interesting analysis, but just from other people's data reported here and the anecdotal evidence central southern england and here on the east coast of East Anglia experienced vastly different summers. July, for instance, other than 2 intense downpours, one on the 16th, one on the 17th, July wasn't wet over here. We had little settled weather admittedly and more cloud than we would have liked.

Oh just checked the data source and SE England doesn't include East Anglia - i guess that's a good thing, but it doesn't negate my point, the one I was trying to make, that these Macro datasets aren't evidential. As, for example, the weather here in NE Essex is rarely equivalent to west Herts or Bucks. More often than not, north and east Kent has closer weather to us, than much of East Anglia.

It is fascinating that for a topographically flat nation (even our hills and mountains aren't very big ones) our weather is so variable within 100 miles or so.

[J10]

Interesting analysis, but just from other people's data reported here and the anecdotal evidence central southern england and here on the east coast of East Anglia experienced vastly different summers. July, for instance, other than 2 intense downpours, one on the 16th, one on the 17th, July wasn't wet over here. We had little settled weather admittedly and more cloud than we would have liked.

Oh just checked the data source and SE England doesn't include East Anglia - i guess that's a good thing, but it doesn't negate my point, the one I was trying to make, that these Macro datasets aren't evidential. As, for example, the weather here in NE Essex is rarely equivalent to west Herts or Bucks. More often than not, north and east Kent has closer weather to us, than much of East Anglia.

It is fascinating that for a topographically flat nation (even our hills and mountains aren't very big ones) our weather is so variable within 100 miles or so.

East Anglia

Rain There was a total of 154.5mm of rain (104% of average rainfall), however most of this was in July with 78.2mm (with 176% of average rainfall) June in contrast saw 41.6mm (77% of normal) and August saw 34.7mm, (69% of normal rainfall).

Sunshine The total sunshine was 622.5 hrs of sunshine (107% of normal sun). July had 195.6 hrs (98% of average), August had 215.5hrs (110% of average), and June had 211.4 hrs (112% of average).

Average Max Temp was 21.9c for the 3 months (1.0c above 1971-2000 average), June saw 19.1c (0.9c above average), July saw 22.1c (0.4c above), and August highest at 23.5c ( 1.7c above).

I'll compare East Anglia to the other areas later this evening.

[johnholmes]

Interesting analysis, but just from other people's data reported here and the anecdotal evidence

'anecdotal evidence' !!

my my it explains some ideas of what the weather is supposed to have been like.

give me the stats provided they are complete stats, day time max and daytime min rainfall 09-21 and 21-09 etc and they are far far more reliable and true than anything 'anecdotal' however interesting that may be to read.

What is true from the data being shown is that the summer has been quite different from one part of the country to another. This is not unusual in any summer other than the most notable exceptions to sun, dry and heat-1947, 75 perhaps 76 etc when most of the country had a similar experience but even then not everywhere.

The beauty of our weather is its variability for different parts even on the same day to me.

[Weather-history]

So in summary

July was wet everywhere, but very wet for Wales and NW England, with either the wettest or 2nd wettest figure in the series here. June was dry across the board, but big variations for August, it was dry over SE England, slightly drier than average for Wales, but wetter than average over NW England.

I think Cumbria distorts the NW England rainfall for August somewhat. It was actually drier than average for southern parts of the region.

[Nick.F]

'anecdotal evidence' !!

my my it explains some ideas of what the weather is supposed to have been like.

give me the stats provided they are complete stats, day time max and daytime min rainfall 09-21 and 21-09 etc and they are far far more reliable and true than anything 'anecdotal' however interesting that may be to read.

What is true from the data being shown is that the summer has been quite different from one part of the country to another. This is not unusual in any summer other than the most notable exceptions to sun, dry and heat-1947, 75 perhaps 76 etc when most of the country had a similar experience but even then not everywhere.

The beauty of our weather is its variability for different parts even on the same day to me.

I couldn't agree more about "anecdotal" evidence. I am a pure stats man myself.

It was the point I am trying to make that these "regional" collations of data that the Met are providing are not evidential. My use of the examples of anecdotal evidence was only for the purpose of the indication of things like - one "side" of East Anglia experientially had an entirely different summer than the other "side" e.g. Bucks/Herts and the Essex coast even though we are only 60 or so miles apart. The statistics bear this out. So having a collation of data for "East Anglia" is meaningless for interpreting "how summer was".

And yes I of course appreciate variations from one part of the country to another, but it is interesting to note that in what is basically a flat landscape (EA), 2 areas, 60 miles or so apart, had remarkably different summers, not just different weather over a couple of days. And it is interesting to ponder the reasons for that.

[J10]

East Anglia

Rain There was a total of 154.5mm of rain (104% of average rainfall), however most of this was in July with 78.2mm (with 176% of average rainfall) June in contrast saw 41.6mm (77% of normal) and August saw 34.7mm, (69% of normal rainfall).

Sunshine The total sunshine was 622.5 hrs of sunshine (107% of normal sun). July had 195.6 hrs (98% of average), August had 215.5hrs (110% of average), and June had 211.4 hrs (112% of average).

Average Max Temp was 21.9c for the 3 months (1.0c above 1971-2000 average), June saw 19.1c (0.9c above average), July saw 22.1c (0.4c above), and August highest at 23.5c ( 1.7c above).

I'll compare East Anglia to the other areas later this evening.

July was a below average month as per the Rest of the UK, but not as bad as most other parts, June compared to averages was slightly worse than most parts, with other parts of the UK having a higher positive anomaly. However, August made up for this with a very high positive anomaly of 1.7c while other parts were around or below average.

[Derp Patrol]

August down here in London was decent temperature wise.. but like the rest of this summer lacked the cloudless days that make good temps worthwhile. The mean temp down here for August was 19.4C, so over 1C above average