Storms And Convective Discussion

[maidstone weather]

as usual, the storms explode into life over the N Sea!

I might consider building myself a house on stilts on the N Sea

Edited September 3, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Harry]

as usual, the storms explode into life over the N Sea!

I might consider building myself a house on stilts on the N Sea

Lol, I think I'm feeling that idea!

Just to add insult to injury, the channel (along with perhaps N France and SE coastlines) is under a thunderstorm watch from Estofex...the Channel based, storm fan marine life is in for a good day it would appear, along with their relatives in the N Sea!

If there was a marine version of NW, I'd dread to think how both mine and their storm tallies would compare... not fair!

[BrickFielder]

Forecasting convective activity is not easy and most forecasters will make mistakes. For instance yesterday I did not really pick up on the triple point crossing along the south coast and the day before I slightly underestimated the instability. The important point is to learn from your mistakes and I want to encourage everyone to have a go at forecasting. Don't forget to read a broad range of views whether here on netweather or on estofex and ukweatherworld.

One thing to note about this time of year is that sea surface temperatures can keep surface temperatures higher than inland temperatures which is why coastal areas tend to be favoured for thunderstorm activity at this time of year. For a good review on how tornados development across the UK is different to other regions then it is well worth reading the following abstract Nigel Bolton.

Forecasting Tornadoes in the UK

As for today then there is a slight risk of storms for south west Wales, the south west and western parts of Ireland in the afternoon and north eastern areas of the UK during the morning. So lets see a few more people having a go at predicting events for today.

[Coast]

I might consider building myself a house on stilts on the N Sea

Sounds like a plan MW, an NetWeather storm colony!!! Perhaps we could shift these ones just up the way from you?

I am back to work this morning and fighting through 560 e-mails, but should have a look at the forecast sites for a round up shortly. Last night turned out to be blowy but desptie getting up a couple of times in the early hours, I couldn't see anything rotating other than the wheelie bins.

[Phil UK]

Coast...

That wouldn't look too much out of place in a remake of the Stars Wars movie... "The Subterranean Droids".

Otherwise, how's it been here in dear old Solihull?

Well. Tuesday was interesting. Two torrential downpours at 12:40 and 2:40pm respectively, the latter throwing out a IC bolt of lightning that stretched from east to west and a massive crack of thunder. I'd put it down in my sig as Thunderstorm No.8 but it wasn't theroretically a 'proper' thunderstorm so it will have to go in the 'Thundery shower' section of my weather diary log.

As regarding yesterday and the arrival of ex hurricane 'Danny'. Mostly cloudy until about 6:30pm when it really peed it down for a good 3 or so hours. Almost akin to 5th and 6th September 2008. This one although less violent than hurricane Bill certainly has more juice in it than the former.

Looking at Scotland radar as I type, you need any canoes and snorkels out there?

Phil.

[Methuselah]

Absolutely chucking it down here at the mo...

[Coast]

I think BF's post, and his storm/convective technical forecasts the past 24 hours have been spot on....Thats why he's a forecaster, and us but mere mortals! :lol:

X 2

All I can do is look at everyone else's stuff, take a guess or just a hunch and keep an eye out for the detectors to go off (or not )

So work has kept me from the really interesting stuff so far, but as already posted, ESTOFEX have some offshore activity tantalisingly close to me in the Channel today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 03 Sep 2009 06:00 to Fri 04 Sep 2009 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 02 Sep 2009 19:42

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Along the southern flank of an intense long-wave trough over north-western Europe, a 40 m/s mid-level jet streak spreads into central Europe. Downstream, the delta of this jet moves northward across Scandinavia. While a tongue of moist air masses is advected northward ahead of the cold front, drier air spreads into the British Isles and northern France. Rich low-level moisture is present over the Mediterranean.

UKASF have nothing so far, TORRO have not updated since yesterday. 21st OWS going for a complete miss apart from NE Scotland:

Not completely backed by this mid-level aviation weather chart which also has Southerly component:

Other charts etc showing possibilities, but nothing really exciting:

(Plymouth 12Z sounding forecast)

(London 18Z sounding forecast)

I can get my head around what the indications are today, all seems a bit messy and hit 'n' miss - could be first day back at work syndrome or it could be the wind still howling around Sussex. I'll take a stab at somewhere in Cornwall or West Devon, but I'm not sticking my neck out any further than that at the moment.

Edited September 3, 2009 by Coast

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Brickfielders good analysis suggests a low risk. Isn't it the case that TORRO etc often get over excited with these forecasts?

I posted this yesterday afternoon. Tbh after I posted it occured to me that I might get negative points for being a killjoy

But it does go to show why these people are worth their salt in terms of the analysis on the forum. Not that I know much at all, but it did look to me as though it would be a rain-fest more than anything else. In the event there were some heavy bursts of rain, but it didn't really even qualify for that either.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Well it certainly has been an active evening hasn't it?

And I see I've been given two negative reputation points. Whoever gave them, just own up because there was NO reason whatsoever to give them. I know people don't really care about my view on storm potential, I've noticed. I really don't know why that is, maybe because I've been here a short while and members on here can't take my posts seriously, or they just think I haven't got a clue what I'm talking about. Such a shame.

Anyway, back to this evening. I think Brickfielder made a good point earlier when he was referring to the conditions this evening, and if they were in June, with much higher surface temps and better insolation, it may have turned out better this evening. The lack of CAPE and the actual CAPE release tells it all.

Re: Harry, well yeah, I am pleased. I would have loved there to be a storm, but I was sure there wasn't going to be. Marginal instability tonight, marginal. A few dry air intrusions is all well and good, but there wasn't enough heat or moisture to really take advantage of that. There were no storms, which tells you there was no, or a lack of instability.

Please, before anyone gives out the negative reputation points on my posts, think about why you are giving it, and then reply to me with the reason you have given it. Because the posts I made today contained my view on this evening storm potential and I would like to think that most of my posts contribute to the discussion on this forum.

I've given you a positive point as a boost a) for your obvious enthusiam on this thread and :blush: so as you will not be so hard on yourself.

I've given dogs a point too!

[Coast]

My punt on the SW getting something has just taken a knock-back:

Still there is time left in the day, although the detectors have been as dead as a very dead thing so far.

[Lightningboy]

been having lots of heavy downpours an dlooks more to come aswell also feels very chilly

[toggerob]

Minor tailbacks on the Cat&Fiddle Road (Buxton-Macclesfield) as convective Gusts on the highest part of the pass overturned a Lorry blocking off both parts of the road and causing minor injuries to the driver. Road is now closed by the police until the winds slack off.

[A.J]

there's a training line of very heavy showers moving out of wales into salops heading towards staffs...the odd associated sferic mixed in...Might just pass to my south, but anyone getting a direct hit could be in for a period of torrential rain with high wind gusts!

[azores92]

could be some temporary heavy rain affecting the western midlands as a band sinks e/se from northern wales

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes there is a few sferics heading this way from that band of heavy rain in North Wales coming down this way. Lets hope it doesnt die out just yet!

[azores92]

Yes there is a few sferics heading this way from that band of heavy rain in North Wales coming down this way. Lets hope it doesnt die out just yet!

fingers crossed!

[maidstone weather]

quite a few heavy and at times torrential showers this afternoon, and some fantastic anvils were visible to the south about an hour ago (5pm)

[Kent Snow]

Had some very heavy showers down in Folkestone town centre at around 4PM today.

[azores92]

no sign of any showers here, despite what the MO radar shows. most odd

[A.J]

Just had a very heavy shower, almost downpour with some gusty winds. Is not showing up on Radar just yet probably because of the quick nature of the showers as they pass. Looks to be heading SE. Think I may be about to get another heavy shower. Ah yes, here it is!

Yep, the northern half of the sky is crystal clear & blue, changing rather abruptly to very dark on the southern half with some white hail precip streaks mixed in with it, oh and a rather nice rainbow thrown in for good measure...a real pot pourri of sky!

Edited September 3, 2009 by ajpoolshark

[Costa Del Fal]

The shower has left us with an excellent double rainbow here.

[SteveB]

The odd heavy shower passing through very quickly on a brisk WSW wind.

[Harry]

quite a few heavy and at times torrential showers this afternoon, and some fantastic anvils were visible to the south about an hour ago (5pm)

Oh yes! I saw a couple of nicely formed, robust CBs around 6-6:30pm off to my S and SE en route home from work! Some very nice anvils with them too.

From my view point, I was thinking sferics were looking very likely!

For those members based along the S Coast and Channel Isles, Becky Mantin talking of further heavy showers or thunderstorms blowing up the Channel regions later on and overnight! Something for you guys to keep an eye out for - never know, with clear skies forecast here, may even be lucky enough to see some distant flashing myself

N.B Not exactly convection related, but my GOD!! it felt cold today in that wind! It was the first time since May I've felt less than warm...certainly the first real taste of Autumn here

Edited September 3, 2009 by Harry

[Lightningboy]

Oh yes! I saw a couple of nicely formed, robust CBs around 6-6:30pm off to my S and SE en route home from work! Some very nice anvils with them too.

From my view point, I was thinking sferics were looking very likely!

For those members based along the S Coast and Channel Isles, Becky Mantin talking of further heavy showers or thunderstorms blowing up the Channel regions later on and overnight! Something for you guys to keep an eye out for - never know, with clear skies forecast here, may even be lucky enough to see some distant flashing myself

N.B Not exactly convection related, but my GOD!! it felt cold today in that wind! It was the first time since May I've felt less than warm...certainly the first real taste of Autumn here

talking about that

there is some amazing skies out to sea and looks thundery

[Coast]

A mass of Cb's along the Sussex shoreline and into the Channel on the way home. The sky is now pitch black and I am expecting:

1) A lot of rain

2) Thunder and lightning

3) Tornados

4) None of the above