Storms And Convective Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

A few pictures from earlier with a couple of the same photos at the end but edited.

And a couple of the same photos but edited to add extra effect.

[Phil UK]

The shower has left us with an excellent double rainbow here.

And over here in Solihull...

Double rainbow.

Phil.

[maidstone weather]

some sort of streamer (any more "s"'s? ) has developed in the Channel, and keeps back-building, providing a constant feed of showers to the NE peninsula of France whilst Kent stays bone dry! Thunder and lightning also detected in this train of showers too.

[Paul R]

Good evening, saw a flash of lightning to the north ten minutes ago as I walked home. The moon is so bright tonight I coul clearly see a line of showers coming in off the Irish Sea. The cell that produced the rogue flash was travelling West to East to the North East of Speke so it seemed. Didn't hear any thunder as it was too far away but thought it worth a mention. Rest of the sky seems clear.

[Coast]

The low countries get all the action today. ESTOFEX have them, most of Germany and beyond in a level 1 - You'd think that being in the EC, we'd get a share of the Storm Mountain they are building in Brussels

Looking further ahead (dangerous, I know) then it looks to be a fairly benign month:

Something around the 17th but that is so far into FI that its not even worth considering. I'm afraid this could herald the end of this years season, such that it was for some!

[Jane Louise]

Let's hope this happens!! My area has been good for Autumn storms in the past. Maybe I will get a good storm after the lack of storms this summer. Fingers Xed

[Coast]

Have a look back at my post further back up the page (here) and the longer range GFS CAPE, LI and Total Total forecast models for the 15th to the 17th. As we always say, FI land and subject to change, but something to keep an eye on over the next week. Trends and patterns! :lol:

[Harry]

Trends and patterns indeed - signs are fairly promising, though with a dominance of High Pressure, chances are always likely to be quite thinly spread I would think at this stage.

The interesting feature on ECMWF is what appears to be the development of a LP over France/Biscay. As the main airflow appears to come more from a SE or ESE, this isn't likely to be a full on 'plume' event IMO, if a 'plume' at all. The proximity of the HP, i.e being the dominant feature over most of the UK, may mean that any storms may keep to France or extreme southern regionos, where as any build up of CAPE here may not be realised.

It is important to remember as ever that it is early on. I think it is quite exciting as the dominating airmass over the coming week (or MORE!) will be more continental - I tend to find for the SE at least, this brings the greater chance of storms :lol:

Mid September could well be an exciting time...here's hoping!!

[Coast]

Trends and patterns indeed - signs are fairly promising, though with a dominance of High Pressure, chances are always likely to be quite thinly spread I would think at this stage.

Morning Harry,

Just shows you how things change model run to model run. The GFS model for London I posted above now shows a complete turn around in terms of LI and Total Totals for the next week or so, when last night there were chances.

I'm not sure how I've let myself fall into the trap of looking that far ahead for thunderstorm possibilities, will I never learn?!!! :lol:

[Harry]

Morning Harry,

Just shows you how things change model run to model run. The GFS model for London I posted above now shows a complete turn around in terms of LI and Total Totals for the next week or so, when last night there were chances.

I'm not sure how I've let myself fall into the trap of looking that far ahead for thunderstorm possibilities, will I never learn?!!! :lol:

Don't we all though? Part of the territory when you're a storm nut, lol

Plenty of scope to chance back in our favour though IMO - will just have to keep watching and hoping that our luck changes this month. Not much sign at this stage however.

[CardiffStorm]

Its a shame but I have to agree.

[dogs32]

I would say Wednesday and Thursday could look like some possible Thundery Shower's for the South East and Southern Counties...

Thundery shower's with or with out thunder

[Harry]

I would say Wednesday and Thursday could look like some possible Thundery Shower's for the South East and Southern Counties...

Thundery shower's with or with out thunder

That be heavy showers then, lol.

I'd be rather surprised to be honest if there was much thunder and lightning. I would think given the now cooling trend towards winter, anything convective could give some hail, maybe a sporadic rumble or two - otherwise, it will be a case of spittings of VERY much needed rainfall for the SE!

My mate played rugby on Saturday, and came back with 'carpet burns' and grazes over pretty much every exposed part of his body - he then said the ground was 'firm' lol...dustbowl better describes it....anyhow, thunder would indeed be nice

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

If this was winter atm I would be looking forward to playing out in the snow

[Harry]

If this was winter atm I would be looking forward to playing out in the snow

My thoughts precisely - this would be the perfect set up for snow if this were a few months down the line.

Seems to be a lot of storm potential over France towards the end of the week, though never really seems like coming ashore at this stage

[maidstone weather]

If this was winter atm I would be looking forward to playing out in the snow

I wondered that last week when i saw the forecast charts for today and tomorrow. Perfect northeasterly setup on the southeastern flank of the High, perfect for convective snow showers from the North Sea

[Nick F]

Only glimmer of hope for a storm on the horizon appears on Saturday looking at 12z GFS and UKMO as low over Spain/Biscay drifts NE over Sern UK, but the models seem all over the place by the weekend - with ECM differing ... lets hope ECM is wrong.

[Tn9]

I wondered that last week when i saw the forecast charts for today and tomorrow. Perfect northeasterly setup on the southeastern flank of the High, perfect for convective snow showers from the North Sea

The funny thing is we bust a b*****k trying to get that high in that position all winter,this time of year its like s**t to a blanket,funny old game

[dogs32]

anyone for Majorca I went the wrong week

Now that's some lightning strikes

The Meds the place to be

A level 2 was issued for Sardinia, Corsica and the N-Tyrrhenian Sea mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for the western Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain and tornadoes

Edited September 15, 2009 by dogs32

[The watcher]

anyone for Majorca I went the wrong week

Now that's some lightning strikes

The Meds the place to be

A level 2 was issued for Sardinia, Corsica and the N-Tyrrhenian Sea mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for the western Mediterranean mainly for excessive rain and tornadoes

That is an amazing amount of strikes.....I would actually be scared if that happened here, looks like all hell let loose. I'd still love it though.

My brother is on holiday in Majorca, he went on Friday last week, lucky bugger.

Edited September 15, 2009 by The watcher

[Nick F]

Greedy French keeping all the storms on Saturday now according to 12z GFS ... how predictable

[A.J]

have noted the odd sferic amongst the band of rain affecting SE parts, and some impressive rainfall amounts as well, a small area near Slough, west of London is showing between 56 & 70mm of accumulated rainfall over the past 12 hours, now thats impressive!

[Harry]

Has been a thoroughly wet day today here - from mid morning until around 5pm it rained, some of it really quite heavy too.

Can't remember the last time we had a day like today - we've had in fact very little rain really over this summer, so today was a bit of a shock. Some roads round here were flooded, parts of Blackheath were waterlogged, and I JUST managed to avoid a tidal wave emanating from a rather extensive puddle!!

All in all, wet wet wet!

[dogs32]

have noted the odd sferic amongst the band of rain affecting SE parts, and some impressive rainfall amounts as well, a small area near Slough, west of London is showing between 56 & 70mm of accumulated rainfall over the past 12 hours, now thats impressive!

yes I thought there was a good chance for Thundery rain for Tuesday..

Hampshire got 60 mm of rain :unsure:

According to the BBC

That's about a month's rain fall I think for down there..

Surprised there wasnt more sferic's.With how heavy it was

Edited September 16, 2009 by dogs32

[Nick F]

Storm risk back on the menu for Saturday, for the SE at least, as a thundery low over France drifts closer.