Storms And Convective Discussion

[Harry]

Storm risk back on the menu for Saturday, for the SE at least, as a thundery low over France drifts closer.

Hehe - just noticed this myself :unsure: Hopefully we may be in for something before the 'summertime' leaves us for another 6 months! Unless we get any winter convection, my next storms/T&L will be in the plains next year...still too far off!

[dogs32]

yes will come quickly Harry..

To see Nick and Paul together for Storm forecasting next year yes cant wait....

Paul was 1st class on prediction's this year..

What a combination Nick and Paul!!

Yes a possibility for Sat for the S/E ...nothing usually here no surprises there.

If the South as a Storm yet again surely it would mean one of the best year's for them for quite a while.

Good luck easterner's

ps...I might be lucky and get my wooly back Nick by then :lol:

Edited September 16, 2009 by dogs32

[Harry]

yes will come quickly Harry..

To see Nick and Paul together for Storm forecasting next year yes cant wait....

Paul was 1st class on prediction's this year..

What a combination Nick and Paul!!

Yes a possibility for Sat for the S/E ...nothing usually here no surprises there.

If the South as a Storm yet again surely it would mean one of the best year's for them for quite a while.

Good luck easterner's

ps...I might be lucky and get my wooly back Nick by then :lol:

It has been one of the best years for quite a while, though this is not saying much as we are still below the MetO average for thunder days (I am anyway) so far this year, currently at 13!

[Jane Louise]

Yes! good luck South Easterners for Saturday! I shall be thinking of you all Lol

[*Stormforce~beka*]

yes I thought there was a good chance for Thundery rain for Tuesday..

Hampshire got 60 mm of rain

According to the BBC

That's about a month's rain fall I think for down there..

Surprised there wasnt more sferic's.With how heavy it was

That must be more rain than we have had since last winter. lol. It's been so dry the garden flooded easily. Still plants will have loved it. Not that it matters now things are going over.

[Harry]

That must be more rain than we have had since last winter. lol. It's been so dry the garden flooded easily. Still plants will have loved it. Not that it matters now things are going over.

Same here - we had just over 20mm, but even then there was some serious puddles, both on tarmac and grass!!

CAPE receding once more from our shores though still some miniscule amounts, with still a 40-50% storm risk. I have a feeling though that it could be a day of black skies and rumbles out to sea, with dry ground in land!

Edited September 16, 2009 by Harry

[Paul Sherman]

And in a Flash it was gone. Latest Models now not showing anything of note but a pulse of Heavy rain which may cause nuisence value to Southern Coastal Counties and certainly nothing convective/surface based of interest in the latest runs.

Roll on Spring 2010

[James M]

Ah well our time will come...........eventually.

[Nick F]

Looks like we could see some thundery showers breaking out tomorrow PM across central southern and parts of SE England - UKMet airmet forecast mentions heavy showers with risk of thunderstorms for the SE, GFS brings a thunderstorm risk across the SE on Sunday too ... so perhaps some storm interest for some afterall ...

[Paul Sherman]

Lol

This has been like a GFS T168 Chart tracking a Beast from the East

Sunday OFF

Monday ON Again

Tuesday It's back OFF

Wednesday Here it is again ON

Thursday Utto It's OFF Again

Friday Surprise Surprise ON

Not exactly Set in Stone this one

Paul S

[MAF]

morning Paul, i have given up trying to work out if this will be Sunday as you say, the on/off situation is crazy.

why is it so difficult to pin this down at such a close range?

[Harry]

morning Paul, i have given up trying to work out if this will be Sunday as you say, the on/off situation is crazy.

why is it so difficult to pin this down at such a close range?

When you have an active thundery low, battling head on with a fairly robust area of High Pressure, it is virtually impossible to say which will win out! One brings flooding, torrential convective weather, the other brings a decent chance settled weather with blue skies and all round pleasantness...

I wouldn't want to be Dan Corbett or Rob McElwee or any of the forecasters for that matter! There is a very big difference between High dominating weather, and active thundery low! Best of luck chaps, lol!

On a seperate now...pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease bring storms!!!! I'm begging, lol

Edited September 18, 2009 by Harry

[Tom Quintavalle]

Morning Harry,

No doubt you'll be looking for a repeat of mid-September 2005, about the 10th/11th I think.

I remember it being a Saturday evening,between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m, when quite severe storms broke out over N.W.Kent/S.E.london and kept back-building from S.E.London eastwards to roughly the Gravesend area.

They were especially nasty around Blackheath/Bexleyheath/Dartford areas. The radar signature looked very similar to a Thames snow streamer situation and I remember remarking at the time how I wished it was a winter month.

With a trough expected to lie pretty close to N.W.Kent its possible that storms could well break out in that area come Saturday afternoon/evening. Not long to wait now.

Regards,

Tom.

[snow raven]

Morning Harry,

No doubt you'll be looking for a repeat of mid-September 2005, about the 10th/11th I think.

I remember it being a Saturday evening,between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m, when quite severe storms broke out over N.W.Kent/S.E.london and kept back-building from S.E.London eastwards to roughly the Gravesend area.

They were especially nasty around Blackheath/Bexleyheath/Dartford areas. The radar signature looked very similar to a Thames snow streamer situation and I remember remarking at the time how I wished it was a winter month.

With a trough expected to lie pretty close to N.W.Kent its possible that storms could well break out in that area come Saturday afternoon/evening. Not long to wait now.

Regards,

Tom.

I remember that Tom, and for me personally, it was the most severe storms I have ever experienced in the UK. Mind you, I enjoyed every minute of it

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just had a look at the forecast wind-stream charts for tomorrow afternoon, they look pretty interesting for parts of London/Kent/Surrey and parts of E.Anglia, some convergence expected.

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20090918/06/33/ukwind.png

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20090918/06/36/ukwind.png

Regards,

Tom

Hi snow raven,

They were indeed severe, if I remember rightly poor old Steve Murrs' flat was flooded, down the road from you.

Talking to Steve at the time, had the ppn been snow in those 4 hours or so, you would've had bucket loads of the white stuff!

Regards,

Tom.

[Noctilucid]

Morning Harry,

No doubt you'll be looking for a repeat of mid-September 2005, about the 10th/11th I think.

I remember it being a Saturday evening,between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m, when quite severe storms broke out over N.W.Kent/S.E.london and kept back-building from S.E.London eastwards to roughly the Gravesend area.

They were especially nasty around Blackheath/Bexleyheath/Dartford areas. The radar signature looked very similar to a Thames snow streamer situation and I remember remarking at the time how I wished it was a winter month.

With a trough expected to lie pretty close to N.W.Kent its possible that storms could well break out in that area come Saturday afternoon/evening. Not long to wait now.

Regards,

Tom.

I remember that, could see the cloud tops from Brighton as we were heading North, amazing structure, all hell broke lose when we got close to Gatwick airport, traffic was down to 30mph on the motorway with bolts either side of the road.

[PB22]

The 12z GFS progs some heavy rain for tomorrow night over central/southern England:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs333.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs363.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs393.html

Some small amounts of cape/lifted index to play with:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs336.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs366.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs396.html

Sunday looks more encouraging for the southeast:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs481.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs483.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs486.html

[Costa Del Fal]

Well, a chance of something thundery for the SE this weekend but nothing significant imo. Only between about Saturday and Tuesday is our chance for some rain otherwise its back to a very dry theme. Already had no rain for about 2 weeks now.

[Harry]

HEHE!! September 2005 was an absolutely awesome evening/night! I remember the storms first kicked off around 4pm, right overhead, and it seemed to move absolutely nowhere. There was some rotation (not much but some), CGs dropping in all directions around the house (some were VERY close), nice instant bangs of thunder, pouring rain! The storm hung around until well after nightfall, when the flashes and bangs got increasingly intense.

Local houses (Bexley) were flooded out, with residents in the road (under several inches of water, with the houses about 1-2 metres below that:() urging cars to turn around, or go VERY slowly. Parts of other surrounding towns were closed due to flash flooding and lightning strikes, fire brigades were out in force, closing many roads.

In fact, at one point en route to pick up a mate for a night out, I hit a roundabout with half a dozen cars stuck (stalled) and people in shin high to knee high water. There was one way to go, and some how, I got through! The storm at this point was still going strong (about 3 hours later)...I waited the rest of the storm at my mate's (when I got there eventually)...all went quiet, the rain pretty much stopped. We were just about to leave...you guessed it, positive bolt, HUUUUUUUGE explosion of thunder...thankfully (on this occasion) that was to spell the end of the storm, and we left for Rochester - where, if I remember rightly, was bone dry! :lol:

Was though an awesome night, both socially and meteorologically - a repeat would be awesome, though perhaps less precip on this occasion, as I dont want people's house flooded out

I think a repeat would be disastrous on this occasion though - just walked across the lawn to get in the house, and the dust that I kicked up was UNREAL! Despite the rain we had Tuesday, a fair bit you'll recall, the ground is as hard, dusty and yellow as anything. Heavy rain would NOT be a smart call, either a short lived torrential downpour, or a repeat of Sept 05!!

Edited September 18, 2009 by Harry

[Flash Elvis]

Damn those French...they seem to be getting a nice set of storms!!!!!

[Harry]

Damn those French...they seem to be getting a nice set of storms!!!!!

Fear not Flash Elvis - that quite pronounced swirl is heading our way, bringing the warmer and slightly more humid air with it. Some doubt at present what potential there is for thunderstorms as the charts are chopping and changing with each run

At present however there is a fair to decent chance the SE could see something, including parts of EA (which will include Essex too of course! :lol:)...it will as ever be a case of checking the charts in the morning and keeping an eye on the skies! There is the potential for some fairly decent storms, so keep watching!

[Flash Elvis]

I will certainly be watching tomorrow, as its my last game of the cricket season and I'm right on the coast, so hopefully something will show!!!

Fingers crossed

[A.J]

Fear not Flash Elvis - that quite pronounced swirl is heading our way, bringing the warmer and slightly more humid air with it. Some doubt at present what potential there is for thunderstorms as the charts are chopping and changing with each run

At present however there is a fair to decent chance the SE could see something, including parts of EA (which will include Essex too of course! )...it will as ever be a case of checking the charts in the morning and keeping an eye on the skies! There is the potential for some fairly decent storms, so keep watching!

*sigh*...what I wouldnt give to be 150 miles or so to the South East this time tomorrow!....This nice quiet autumnal weather we've been having in the West Midlands has become TOO QUIET!....I guess there's the very outside possibility of a late night storm encroaching up into the midlands tomorrow but I'm not betting my house on it! GFS & NMM show moderate to heavy precip tomorrow evening over the south and east midlands but TBH I feel its far more favourable for SE counties.....The BBC News 24 forecast is certainly playing it down, giving just a chance of a few isolated showers over southern counties tomorrow evening....All we need is a nice MCS to drift up from France towards London and then make a dramatic turn to the NW and give me a night to remember!... :lol:

[Harry]

*sigh*...what I wouldnt give to be 150 miles or so to the South East this time tomorrow!....This nice quiet autumnal weather we've been having in the West Midlands has become TOO QUIET!....I guess there's the very outside possibility of a late night storm encroaching up into the midlands tomorrow but I'm not betting my house on it! GFS & NMM show moderate to heavy precip tomorrow evening over the south and east midlands but TBH I feel its far more favourable for SE counties.....The BBC News 24 forecast is certainly playing it down, giving just a chance of a few isolated showers over southern counties tomorrow evening....All we need is a nice MCS to drift up from France towards London and then make a dramatic turn to the NW and give me a night to remember!... :lol:

BBC and MetO playing it down? Never, lol

If my memory serves me rightly, Nick Miller is not often one to give much notice to potential thunderstorms - "showers, maybe the odd heavier downpour" is normally his view. However once they have developed, the comments swiftly change to the "torrential downpours, intense thunderstorms" and gets very excitable about them.

Considering both the BBC and MetO's record this year with thunderstorms, I've not paid them the slightest notice to be honest. In my opinion, the risk at the moment is below 50% (which is much better than 0% lol) - I'll be keeping a close eye on the forum, GFS, UKMO, Estofex and MAYBE a cursory glance at BBC and MetO - ultimately, from tomorrow afternoon onwards (as I prob wont have my laptop) I'll be staring skywards in the hope of seeing some nice Cb formations

Incidentally, there was a rash of Ac across the sky this evening - it was also a good deal warmer, and ever so slightly more humid today too...so already, there are some slightly more promising signs

[A.J]

I should've added to my post "Not that I pay any attention to the BBC forecast, as they're a complete waste of time!" :lol: