2009 Season

[Cookie]

I know its never to late and mother nature always surprises us, but their really isn't anything out their at all at the moment.

Bill was the biggest and strongest.

Do you think something else could form that could really threaten land or is the environment to hostile?

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, very quiet this year, particularly the Caribbean, which is definitely needed after last year's onslought. Shear is high and air dry in the Atlantic, typical of El Nino years. Tropical waves just aren't surviving to make it as far as the West Caribbean or GOM. Claudette has been the only storm to really effect land or be in the GOM. Steering patterns are favouring re-curvature of any storms east of the USA as weaknesses are occuring regularly in the Azores High. The way things stand, the USA and Caribbean are at less of a risk from landfalling storms but things still have time to change unfortunately.

[Cookie]

will next year be any differnt or to early to tell?

[Rob]

i think we have seen the worst of the season now, i believe we will have one or two more named storms but they won't cause any impact, due to the unsually large amount of dry air and the strong wind shear all storms have experienced this year i think this is one of the quieted on record as we have had only 1 US landfall.

[Cookie]

1983 on had 4 storms and way back 1918 only had 1.

[Somerset Squall]

Yes, numbers aren't record brakingly low, but what Rob may have meant is the number of landfalls and damage is very low- as far as I am aware there has been only 1 death and that was down to Claudette. A total turn around from last year!

As for 2010, far too early to tell though current estimations is for El Nino to carry on till at least Spring but after that is still open to question.

[MAF]

A very quiet season indeed. the lack of storms in the Gulf is, i suspect, a bit of a relief for the Southern states. and as mentioned already, the El Nino has done its job again this season. still a bit of time left in the season, so chance that there may always be a reasonable storm. but i dont think the season wil have a sting in its tail this year.

East Pacific is now on its 17th tropical depression.

some data

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

FOUR TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN AUGUST...ONE OF WHICH REACHED MAJOR

HURRICANE STATUS. THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE FOR AUGUST IS ABOUT 4

TROPICAL STORMS...2 HURRICANES...AND 1 MAJOR HURRICANE. IN TERMS OF

ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED

STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...AUGUST

WAS ABOUT 30 PERCENT ABOVE THE LONG-TERM MEAN...PRIMARILY DUE TO

HURRICANE BILL.

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AUGUST WAS AN EXTREMELY ACTIVE MONTH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN.

SEVEN TROPICAL STORMS FORMED...OF WHICH THREE BECAME HURRICANES...

AND ALL OF THE HURRICANES EVENTUALLY BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES. THIS

COMPARES TO THE LONG-TERM AUGUST AVERAGE OF ABOUT 4 TROPICAL

STORMS...2 HURRICANES...AND 1 MAJOR HURRICANE. THIS IS THE FIRST

TIME SINCE 1985 THAT 7 TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN ANY MONTH IN THE

EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THE MOST NAMED STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN THE

MONTH OF AUGUST SINCE 1968 WHEN 8 FORMED. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST

TIME SINCE 1998 THAT THREE MAJOR HURRICANES HAVE FORMED IN ANY

MONTH IN THE BASIN.