October CET

[damianslaw]

Like April and to a lesser extent March, October is a month where the CET can drop and rise quite significantly in short space of time, it is a month when we tend to see the greatest drop in temperature fall from start to finish, early october can still easily deliver maxes in the early 20's whereas by late october single digit maxes begin to become a reality and widespread mins of below 2-3 degrees becomes a much greater probability, it is for this reason that I find October with April the trickiest month to guess CET wise, its usually a very interesting month weatherwise when everything the weather can bring at us can occur, unlike lacklustre September.. roll on October!

Edited September 30, 2009 by damianslaw

[acbrixton]

10.9c for my guess please.

regards

ACB

[J10]

10.5

[Stratos Ferric]

10.2C

[Cookie]

9.9 for me please just in time

[SNOWPLOUGH]

9.5C Please.

SP

[Evening thunder]

10.8C for me please

is it really the 1st October today?

:unsure: ive done it again

Edited October 1, 2009 by StormMad26

[SLEETY]

11.7 for me:clap:

[Nights King]

I noticed the net weather N-W UK tracker figure for October 2009 is 13.24°C at the moment which is very high when my own station and some others i have looked at are in single figures. In fact the average is not far from my top temperature of 14c today.

My question is are the stations that accrue the information that makes the net weather tracker figure all based in low lying urban areas or is it a mix of heights/places/altitudes/rural/urban ect ect? Probably sounds a silly question.

[Stu_London]

Hadley to the 1st

12.9C

GFS 06z suggests we will be at 10.6C at the 9th, which would be below average. I suspect we might come in a little higher than that.

[Stu_London]

12.5 to the 3rd. An overall cooldown still looks likely to around the 10th.

The second third of the month looks milder although i doubt daily temperatures will be as spectacular as the 850hpas look. We could, depending on where any high pressure is centred, also see some inversion conditions setting up.

[Eugene]

@ Younger Dryas and Charmhills on TWO going for an October CET of 8.1C and 13.4C respectively, one surpassing by 0.1C the warmest ever recorded October CET. don't think either have a chance in hell, near average looks most likely. Edited October 5, 2009 by Eugene

[Stu_London]

Hadley to the 4th - 12.2C

Yesterday weighed in at 11.2C - the coolest daily reading since the 6th June

Today may register a fall also after last night registered 6.2C

[osmposm]

@ Younger Dryas and Charmhills on TWO going for an October CET of 8.1C and 13.4C respectively, one surpassing by 0.1C the warmest ever recorded October CET. don't think either have a chance in hell, near average looks most likely.

Well, we can't compete with the 8.1 - a level that has only been reached or breached twice since the 1920s (though surprisingly one of those was as recent as 1992). But Charmhills' 13.4 is a feeble effort compared with our own magnificent Craig Evans' 14.0!

Edited October 5, 2009 by osmposm

[Stu_London]

12.0C to the 5th

Yesterday was 11.2C again.

A rise is likely for the 6th

[MR EXTREMES]

i go for 11.7

[Backtrack]

10.0c i'll go for.

Edited October 6, 2009 by Hancock

[Stu_London]

some very late entries into the competition

GFS 06z nudges the door open for those of us that have punted below average. Raw data suggests a mid month outcome of around 10.4C which is significantly below the mean.

[The PIT]

some very late entries into the competition

GFS 06z nudges the door open for those of us that have punted below average. Raw data suggests a mid month outcome of around 10.4C which is significantly below the mean.

Well all change mid month today indicates maxs of 18c widespread across the CET area plus mild nights. Lets see what happens when we get there.

At the moment we're well above average day temp wise and just below average night time wise.

[Stu_London]

11.9 to the 7th

yesterday was 9.7C - we haven't had a cooler day since early May.

[Optimus Prime]

At the moment we're well above average day temp wise and just below average night time wise.

Actually

Average Max 15.4c 0.4c below normal

Average Min 7.8c 0.7c below normal.

[The PIT]

Actually

Average Max 15.4c 0.4c below normal

Average Min 7.8c 0.7c below normal.

We're as in Sheffield sorry for not making that clear.

[damianslaw]

Well all change mid month today indicates maxs of 18c widespread across the CET area plus mild nights. Lets see what happens when we get there.

At the moment we're well above average day temp wise and just below average night time wise.

Not so sure about those mins, with high pressure overhead next week, some cold nights will certainly be on the cards unless of course we get trapped under a layer of cloud.. maxes do look like getting quite high.. will wait and see, the source of the high will be from a relatively cold area, so I can see it being a cold high, watch the maxes and mins cancel each other out, I see nothin at this stage to suggest anything but at the most a slightly above average October, however I still think think the final outcome will be below.

[Stu_London]

I think October will be a month of 3 halves!!

Cool 1st third

Milder 2nd third with CET rising

Average 3rd third with CET falling back

[Stu_London]

11.9 to the 7th

yesterday was 9.7C - we haven't had a cooler day since early May.

11.6C to the 8th

Yesterday was 9.1C

A similar outcome is likely for today so we should be 11.3 or 11.4 to the 8th.

Looks like picking up a bit after that, but still some uncertainty.