October CET

[Stu_London]

11.6C to the 8th

Yesterday was 9.1C

A similar outcome is likely for today so we should be 11.3 or 11.4 to the 8th.

Looks like picking up a bit after that, but still some uncertainty.

11.3C to the 8th according to Hadley.

0.8C below average for the this time of the month (I think that is 61-90 average too)which might surprise some people.

That negative anomoly looks like being wiped out over the next 4-5 days.

[reef]

11.3C to the 8th according to Hadley.

0.8C below average for the this time of the month (I think that is 61-90 average too)which might surprise some people.

That negative anomoly looks like being wiped out over the next 4-5 days.

We could well be looking at quite a mild month if this warm high sticks around. It would require quite a cold spell in the last third to bring the mean to average.

[Stu_London]

We could well be looking at quite a mild month if this warm high sticks around. It would require quite a cold spell in the last third to bring the mean to average.

Not sure mild (by mild I would classify something in excess of +1C above the mean) is quite the call yet.

Lots of uncertainty about the High at the moment and even if the uppers stay warmish, by the 2nd half of October, inversion conditions are perfectly capable of setting up.

Certainly the next few days are likely to see the CET rising, but not by that much

[Stu_London]

11.3C to the 9th according to Hadley.

0.8C below average for the this time of the month (I think that is 61-90 average too)which might surprise some people.

That negative anomoly looks like being wiped out over the next 4-5 days.

Hadley to the 10th - 11.4C - yesterday came in at 12.4C.

The latest modelling has backed away from the Indian Summer conditions it was showing a couple of days ago and in fact the overall trend based on the 06Z is for a falling CET over the next days (somewhere around 10.7C looks likely to the 20th)

A couple of days in this period may show slight rises (today and the 14th, look most likely), but with minimums now looking a fair bit lower than previously, most days will see a fall in this period.

Below average for the month looks game on and sub 10C can't be ruled out as the last 3rd of October can produce quite low daily figures if conditions are right - last year for example the CET for the last 4 days of the October was 3.3C, although that period did contain the coldest October day reading in almost 75 years.

[Stu_London]

Hadley to the 10th - 11.4C - yesterday came in at 12.4C.

The latest modelling has backed away from the Indian Summer conditions it was showing a couple of days ago and in fact the overall trend based on the 06Z is for a falling CET over the next days (somewhere around 10.7C looks likely to the 20th)

A couple of days in this period may show slight rises (today and the 14th, look most likely), but with minimums now looking a fair bit lower than previously, most days will see a fall in this period.

Below average for the month looks game on and sub 10C can't be ruled out as the last 3rd of October can produce quite low daily figures if conditions are right - last year for example the CET for the last 4 days of the October was 3.3C, although that period did contain the coldest October day reading in almost 75 years.

Back up to 11.6C to the 11th after yesterday came in at 14.0C

A fall looks likely for today and tomorrow- probably back to 11.3 by the 13th.

[The PIT]

yeh and after that it's a case of chasing clouds. Could well get the case of suppressed day temps off set by warmer nights with no overall change of CET.

[Stu_London]

GFS 18z would indicate a CET in running at the 20th of 10.6C

I doubt there are many instances where the CET has not fallen from this sort of level (or higher) in the final 3rd of October.

On that basis, I believe below average is the call, at this early stage.

[Stu_London]

Hadley to the 12th = 11.5C

Yesterday was 10.1C

Last night was the coolest of the season to date at 3.3C

GFS 06z projects a CET in running to the 20th of 10.6C

[Gavin P]

A large deviation between Hadley and Manley this month. Hadley CET at 11.4. Manley 0.6c lower at 10.8!

Usually when this happens you would expect a quite large downward correction with Hadley at the end of the month.

[The PIT]

No change today still 11.4C I expect a rise for the 15th then another fall away before milder air comes back in FI.

[Stu_London]

No change today still 11.4C I expect a rise for the 15th then another fall away before milder air comes back in FI.

11.5C to the 15th

Still looking at a drop off over the next week but FI looks fairly mild.

Those with guesses between 10.5C to 11.0C should be happiest at the moment.

[The PIT]

11.5C too the 16th.

[osmposm]

Dropped 0.2 on Hadley yesterday - 11.3 to the 17th.

Manley ( http://www.climate-uk.com/ ) not yet updated, but 11.0 to the 16th - will probably have dropped by a similar amount to the 17th.

After last night's cold, presumably one further drop in the pipeline. Thereafter it looks slowly upwards if anything, but not a vast movement. Even allowing for a normal cooldown as October progresses, I wouldn't have thought there was much chance of below 10.5 now. I tend to agree with Stu's assessment of 2 days ago, 10.5-11.0 looks to be the ballpark.

Now, why on earth didn't I play safe with my usual 'just-a-bit-above-average', instead of going all bold and daring in the upper 9's?!

[Optimus Prime]

Climate-uk is on 10.6c upto the 18th.

[Stu_London]

Climate-uk is on 10.6c upto the 18th.

Hadley is 11.1C to the same date

[Stu_London]

Still 11.1C on Hadley to the 19th.

Yesterday was 10.4C.

The signal to the end of the month is for unsettled weather with 850s very close to average or mildish nights and average days. Although the final third of the month would statistically favour a fall from the current level, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't deviate more than a tenth or two from where we are now between now and month end.

There could be a downward adjustment at month end - we seem to get them more outside of the summer months and Philip's figure over on www.climate-uk.com would seem to support this happening.

Including adjustments, I can't see lower than 10.4C or higher than 11.0C

[Stu_London]

Hadley 11.0 to the 20th

Climate-uk.com 10.5 to the 20th

[The watcher]

Gonna be high temps in the South this weekend, 17/18c, so my punt (fingers crossed) of 11.1c could be spot on or very close.

[reef]

At present it looks like the CET could actually start rising in the final 10 days of the month. Temperatures look to be regularly in the mid-teens by day and sitting in double figures by night in the CET zone, so daily means of 11-13C dont look out of the question. A word of warning though, in the first week it looked like the middle of the month would be very warm and it didnt materialise, so it could well change dramatically yet.

Possibly 11.3C by the 25th, followed by stagnation or a small fall.

[The PIT]

Hadley now 11.1c up to the 22nd.

[osmposm]

Hadley up a point from the day before at 11.2 (to the 23rd http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html )

Manley still suprisingly divergent at only 10.6 (to the 23rd http://www.climate-uk.com )

Edited October 24, 2009 by osmposm

[acbrixton]

On the basis of the GFS 12z (and assuming that after today Hadley is on, say, 11.4 and ignoring any final adjustments) a rather warm month looks quite likely: perhaps 12.2-12.5?

regards

ACB

Edited October 24, 2009 by acbrixton

[The PIT]

I would have said around 11.4c to 11.6c since we're running out of days so it makes upward movements or downwards in any large amounts fairly hard.

[Stu_London]

On the basis of the GFS 12z (and assuming that after today Hadley is on, say, 11.4 and ignoring any final adjustments) a rather warm month looks quite likely: perhaps 12.2-12.5?

regards

ACB

16.3 from here required to get to the top end of that, can't really see it.

Edited October 24, 2009 by Stu_London

[reef]

Hadley now on 11.3C to the 24th after yesterday came in at a very mild 13.9C.

The next week still looks rather warm (though admittedly has been toned down a little). If we averaged 13C per day for the remaining 7 days we would finish provisonally on 11.7C.