October CET

[damianslaw]

A mild October is now almost a dead cert though it won't end up a particularly very mild October, not a par on recent warm Octobers such as 2006 and 2005.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Something around or just above 11.5C looks likely IMHO with that long drag of southerly winds- could be a reminder of summer in eastern, central and southern England, Friday and Saturday looking most likely for this. CET averages of 14 or even 15C are quite plausible for both days.

For a long time I thought my punt of 11.0C may be a little on the high side- now it's looking a little low!

[acbrixton]

16.3 from here required to get to the top end of that, can't really see it.

Stu, yes apologies you are right: I miscalculated...

regards

ACB

[reef]

Hadley has now nudged up to 11.5C after the 27th came in at 13.6C. Manley is still way below that at 11.0C to the same date. It will be interesting to see what the adjustment is at month's end.

[Scorcher]

Hadley has now nudged up to 11.5C after the 27th came in at 13.6C. Manley is still way below that at 11.0C to the same date. It will be interesting to see what the adjustment is at month's end.

Yes it's odd that Manley is so far behind. It's up to 11.1C after the 28th. It will be interesting to see where the last 10 days of the month rank against past Octobers. It's probably not been as warm as 2005 but certainly quite impressive.

[Scorcher]

Very quiet in this thread! I can't imagine it would be if the CET was on a downward spiral!!

[Snowly does it]

11.6 to the 28th (11.61) - last night was slightly cooler in the 8s but should still creep above 11.65 and round t0 11.7 tomorrow.

11.8 or 11.9 the unadjusted finish I would say and therefore given where Manley is, perhaps 11.5 or 11.6 to finish?

[Optimus Prime]

Bit strange that Hadley is so high. It's close to the Netweather tracker (which stands at 11.7) normally the Netweather tracker is a good 0.5c ahead of Hadley. Certainly hasn't been as warm as expected.

[Roger J Smith]

The anomalies on the other side of the Atlantic are rising in phase, at Washington (DCA) the monthly anomaly was sitting at about -4 F on the 20th, now it's closing in on zero anomaly from normal after a string of very mild days.

It has been colder than normal here for the past week.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Certainly hasn't been as warm as expected.

Indeed it hasn't. Had to put up with the usual 'record warmth likely this week' from the awful radio weather reports. This air came up from the West coast of Africa too....is it cooling there too? :lol:

BFTP

[reef]

Hadley is 11.6C to the 29th. Yesterday came in at 12.6C.

The last 10 days:

Average Max: 15.5C

Average Min: 10.2C

Mean Temp: 12.9C

So rather mild overall.

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

VERY mild week as forecast pushing averages up making this the 9th well above average month in a row.

this time last year it was snowing.

[Mark Bayley]

February 4.1c above by 0.4c

March 7.0c above by 1.3c

April 10.0 c above by 2.1c

May 12.1c above by 0.9c

June 14.8c above by 0.6c

July 16.1c above by 0.1c

August 16.6c above by 0.8c

September14.2c above by 0.6c

October 11.6c above 0.9c (so far)

I wouldn't call every month since February well above average! I wouldn't say February, June, July, August and September was well above the average. Above average yes, but if you say there well above average, then what would you say April and March was?

Edited October 30, 2009 by mark bayley

[ukmoose]

February 4.1c above by 0.4c

March 7.0c above by 1.3c

April 10.0 c above by 2.1c

May 12.1c above by 0.9c

June 14.8c above by 0.6c

July 16.1c above by 0.1c

August 16.6c above by 0.8c

September14.2c above by 0.6c

October 11.6c above 0.9c (so far)

I wouldn't call every month since February well above average! I wouldn't say February, June, July, August and September was well above the average. Above average yes, but if you say there well above average, then what would you say April and March was?

Fair enough - I think only April could be considered to be 'well above' average in this list. If you average the last nine months they come out at 0.86 (rounded to one decimal place) above the mean which is probably not far off par for the course these days. Few months come in below average now and rarely is a month 'well below' average which possibly leads to a little hyperbole occasionally when assessing how much 'above' average it has been. Depends how we interpret 'well above' or 'well below' I suppose but 2 whole degrees or more would seem reasonable.

By that reckoning, when was the last 'well below' average month I wonder and how many 'well above' months have there been in the same time period? Or is there an official 'well above/below' limit that could be referred to?

[Lettucing Gutted]

The last month to be 2C below average Ukmoose was May 1996 with a CET of of only 9.1C.

[Snowyowl9]

Are we not useing the 71-00 average,october actually comes out lower anyway at 10.4c

The last october to come out as 11.7c was 1996(not a bad winter to follow just ended much too quick) but it`ll end up

a touch lower I expect with adjustments.

[Snowly does it]

11.7 (11.68 rounded) to the 30th

The unadjusted final number will be 11.8 (unless temps of 20 plus are recorded across the zone for maxima today to get a rounded 11.9 into view)

Therefore I would predict 11.4 or 11.5 as the final number.

[Optimus Prime]

Netweather tracker is on 11.82c, so Hadley is almost level! Manleys on a much lower 11.2c.

[ukmoose]

The last month to be 2C below average Ukmoose was May 1996 with a CET of of only 9.1C.

Thanks Craig - I had a feeling it was some time ago but that's even longer than I thought. And the last winter month 2 degrees or more below...I'll check it out.

[Snowyowl9]

December 1995 if your going by the 61-90 average at 2.3c,or december 1996 at 2.9c with the 71-00 average.

[ukmoose]

December 1995 if your going by the 61-90 average at 2.3c,or december 1996 at 2.9c with the 71-00 average.

Thank you Snowyowl. I knew it had been a while since we had anything that cold. And the next one will be...

[Milhouse]

The last month to be 2C below average Ukmoose was May 1996 with a CET of of only 9.1C.

And since then we've seen 17 months with a CET of 2c above average including 4 out of the last 13 Februarys.

[Methuselah]

And since then we've seen 17 months with a CET of 2c above average including 4 out of the last 13 Februarys.

The weather itself seems to be biased towards warming?

[Snowly does it]

11.6 is the finishing number on the site - downward correction of 0.2 has been put in it seems

11.3 for Manley

We are now 0.6 ahead of 2008 in total - will need the last two months to come in at cumulative 10 degrees to get below 10 for the year

[J10]

And since then we've seen 17 months with a CET of 2c above average including 4 out of the last 13 Februarys.

I make it 19 and they are

With up to 2000 being based on 1961-1990 averages and thereafter 1971-2000

Feb-97 2.94

Mar-97 2.72

Aug-97 3.13

Feb-98 3.54

Mar-98 2.22

Sep-99 2.00

Feb-00 2.54

Oct-01 2.89

Feb-02 2.76

Jun-03 2.03

Aug-03 2.09

Oct-05 2.69

Jul-06 3.22

Sep-06 3.09

Oct-06 2.59

Jan-07 2.80

Apr-07 3.13

Jan-08 2.40

May-08 2.09

Either way, it does prove your general point.