Arctic Ice 2009/2010

[Gray-Wolf]

I think the real test comes at the end of June before then all years are fairly well clustered.

But , and this is a big 'BUT' all those years had the central core of perennial. The recent losses are the 'late spurt ice' in the main and the 'relaxation' of the central pack now open waters exist there. By late June we will have a lot of open water in the areas we had poor ice development (Barents, Greenland, Central Arctic ocean) and clear exits to the Atlantic via both Nares and Fram. We have been lucky over the past 2 years as the collapse of perennial in the Archipelago had it clogged and the same to the north of Greenland and this effectively 'log jammed' ice within those areas. You can already see free flow of ice through these 'exit' routes (and the collapse of the pack behind showing the direction it is flowing in).

The plot should have dropped below a couple of past years by weeks end but ,most importantly, it is already below 09's melt levels and we know the pattern of June/July melt from then. The ice is thinner and in poorer shape than 09' so why should we expect it to do better than this time last year?

By June we will have the last of the late spurt ice going, the Hudson Bay will be going (already on it's way really) and we should have a good indication as to whether the NW passage is opening this year. I imagine the NE passage will be open as the German shipping line that used it last year has already scheduled runs through it come Aug/Sept.

[The PIT]

Remember last summer most of the ice was due to go and didn't and I said wait until melting season ends and see what happens then.

Edited May 5, 2010 by The PIT

[Gray-Wolf]

Remember last summer most of the ice was due to go and didn't and I said wait until melting season ends and see what happens then.

But it did Pit , that's the point! Too many folk obsess about 'extent' (which will stop this year with IceBridge and Cryosat2) and not the 'amount of ice' in the basin. Check out the 'volume graph' and see for yourself. We start summer with less ice than 07's min and all of that is spread so thin we can have the extent you see. How can that endure? We have NEVER been in such a poor position before.

EDIT: Put it this way, with the losses we continue to have how long do we have before the 1 million mark without any 'big melt' taking us through the 'seasonal' threshold ?

Edited May 5, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[stewfox]

But it did Pit , that's the point! Too many folk obsess about 'extent' (which will stop this year with IceBridge and Cryosat2) and not the 'amount of ice' in the basin. Check out the 'volume graph' and see for yourself. We start summer with less ice than 07's min and all of that is spread so thin we can have the extent you see. How can that endure? We have NEVER been in such a poor position before.

EDIT: Put it this way, with the losses we continue to have how long do we have before the 1 million mark without any 'big melt' taking us through the 'seasonal' threshold ?

Cant the Mods close this thread down ? Its hard enough following GW but over two threads

[jethro]

Oops, you're quite right, this should have been closed when the new thread to follow the summer season was opened. Sorry folks.

Summer melt to be found here