November CET

[reef]

???

We have mild mild mild with day times at 13-15c (maybe the on 16c even in the CET zone) and nights around 8-10c

The Nov CET is only going to rise now and even in F1 there is no real sign of even 'average' november weather

Unless something does change post 19/20th outside reliable time frame we could be seeing one of the warmest Novembers on record

It would take something quite special to reach the record (11.4C per day from now), however the upcoming mild weather will have a huge effect on the CET.

Hadley has updated and yesterday came in at 10.9C, meaning the mean is now 8.4C to the 13th - up 0.3C from yesterday.

A value of 9.0C+ after next weekend could be realistic now. A well above average month could also be a possibility (9.0C would be the 7th warmest in 350 years).

[ukmoose]

It would take something quite special to reach the record (11.4C per day from now), however the upcoming mild weather will have a huge effect on the CET.

Hadley has updated and yesterday came in at 10.9C, meaning the mean is now 8.4C to the 13th - up 0.3C from yesterday.

A value of 9.0C+ after next weekend could be realistic now. A well above average month could also be a possibility (9.0C would be the 7th warmest in 350 years).

The first daffodil shoots should be through soon then.

[damianslaw]

At the near half way mark and going by the outlook for the foreseeable future you have to now bet on nothing but an above average CET, so my guess of slightly below has gone to the dogs. However, I don't foresee an especially very mild CET, yes by next weekend we will be appreciably above, but I believe the last week will see a marked downturn in the CET as we loose the south westerlies and our replaced my something colder from the NW.

[WhiteXmas]

as we loose the south westerlies and our replaced my something colder from the NW.

You've started a little early on the brandy butter!

[stewfox]

It would take something quite special to reach the record (11.4C per day from now), however the upcoming mild weather will have a huge effect on the CET.

Hadley has updated and yesterday came in at 10.9C, meaning the mean is now 8.4C to the 13th - up 0.3C from yesterday.

A value of 9.0C+ after next weekend could be realistic now. A well above average month could also be a possibility (9.0C would be the 7th warmest in 350 years).

Who said the warmest, I said one of the warmest ?

Certainly a top 10 candidate but as the last 1/3rd is stilll F1 cant be pinned down yet. I think my mins a tad OTT

[Roger J Smith]

It would not surprise me to see the average hit 10.0 before the 23rd because there are some 17/11 days ahead (that may be the average of Wed to Sun) so, if that were to come to pass, with seven days remaining, even a rather chilly 5.0 would give a final reading of 8.8 C -- and a more seasonable 7.5 would give 9.4 as the final for the month.

By the way, don't rule out a 20 C reading in the UK around Thursday, whether in the CET zone or not, north Wales could be one candidate with the foehn set-up, or east coast, greater London area, all it would take would be a few hours of sunshine around mid-day because the set-up will be wafting 21 C air out of the Paris region towards the Channel.

The other thing this set-up means for the near future is a growing risk of another major windstorm, obviously there are two good opportunities for that around late Thursday and the weekend, but what could really put things into severe territory would be any kind of sharpening up of this trough in the east-central Atlantic. There are waves of strong energy coming ashore in western NA this week so the jet stream is going to remain highly charged for a while now, probably past the full moon and northern max events of 2-4 Dec.

[Gavin P]

I wish I'd stuck with my original CET guess of 8.8

Edited November 16, 2009 by Gavin P

[Methuselah]

Even my 'mild' prediction of 7.7(?) looks like being something of an undercut...

[Weather-history]

By the way, don't rule out a 20 C reading in the UK around Thursday, whether in the CET zone or not, north Wales could be one candidate with the foehn set-up, or east coast, greater London area, all it would take would be a few hours of sunshine around mid-day because the set-up will be wafting 21 C air out of the Paris region towards the Channel.

.

Hmmm, doesn't look likely Roger, thicknesses are not as quite as high as GFS were suggest a few runs ago. Certainly very mild but not quite as mild as it was originally suggesting.

[Don]

Well my CET guestimate of 8.2 is looking a bit on the low side. More likely to be closer to 9.2. A good chance that this November will be the warmest since 1994.

[reef]

Hadley is now 8.7C to the 16th. The next 4 days look mild with a mean possibly as high as 10.5C, so we could be looking at 9.1C by the 20th.

[Summer of 95]

My 8.4 is looking a bit low at the moment, what price an 8th consecutive month at 10C+? Unprecedented in the whole CET record that is.

EDIT: 8 consecutive months above 9c (that's certainly possible this year) doesn't seem to have happened either! Interestingly the closest we came was 1938, when it would have happened had April not been colder than March which like November was above 9C- Christmas 1938 again yes please

Edited November 17, 2009 by Summer of 95

[osmposm]

That would indeed be extraordinary, '95, at the 9C, let alone the 10C level - well done for spotting the possibility.

I shall be watching with the curious mixture of fascination and horror that normally accompanies a car crash. And like an impending car crash, I sincerely hope we miss it - what a depressing landmark it would be.

Ossie

P.S. Hadley unchanged at 8.7C to the 17th, Manley (climate-uk) also steady at 8.4.

Edited November 18, 2009 by osmposm

[damianslaw]

Tomorrow is looking like the peak of this very mild spell and consequently from Friday I am expecting the CET to slowly decline, very slow progress at first.. too far out to call where it it likely to land, somewhere around the 7.5-8 degree mark probably.

[stewfox]

Hadley unchanged at 8.7C to the 17th, Manley (climate-uk) also steady at 8.4.

For those that think winter is over

I noticed 1939 had a November CET of 8.7c. Look what followed that.

Dec 1939 had a CET of 3.2c

Jan 1940 had a CET of -1.4c

Feb 1940 had a CET of 2.6c

A very cold winter in the East of Europe that year

Things looking good

Edited November 18, 2009 by stewfox

[reef]

Hadley at 8.9C to the 18th. Today's minima is down as 10.9C, so the mean for today could well be around 12-13C, taking us to 9.0C.

[Optimus Prime]

10.9c is an astonishingly high minima for November bearing in mind it should be around 3.0c now.

[Summer of 95]

10.9c is an astonishingly high minima for November bearing in mind it should be around 3.0c now.

For the second half of the month it would be a pretty high maximum- today it was 13C at 8am, which is about normal for June round here.

[Snowyowl9]

For the second half of the month it would be a pretty high maximum- today it was 13C at 8am, which is about normal for June round here.

Today was shown to be very mild 12.4c max here,made 13c two years ago december 6th.

It does look like a very mild november though which is not so good,no air frost no falling snow as yet. :lol:

Notice in you signature that you have to go back to before 1990 for the first air frost.

Latest first one here was december 14th 2000,very narrowly missing an air frost november 21 and that was actually a cold day.

[Weather-history]

10.9c is an astonishingly high minima for November bearing in mind it should be around 3.0c now.

During November 1938, it was above 10C on 8 days. The CET min was an astonishing 9.9C by the 14th November 1938. (8.0C by 14th Nov. 1994)

During mid November 1997, the CET minima was above 10C on 3 consecutive days and above 11C on 2 days.

22nd November 1947: 13.5C!

Edited November 19, 2009 by Mr_Data

[reef]

Going by the GFS 18z we'd be at around 9.1C to the 26th. If this were to be the final figure by the end of the month then it would be the joint 6th warmest November in 351 years.

[damianslaw]

Going by the GFS 18z we'd be at around 9.1C to the 26th. If this were to be the final figure by the end of the month then it would be the joint 6th warmest November in 351 years.

Very much doubt that such a figure would stick to the months end. Expecting a cooling trend next week so a plus 9 degree CET is looking a slim bet, probably more nearer the 8 - 8.5 degree mark, still a very mild month overall.

[osmposm]

Tomorrow is looking like the peak of this very mild spell and consequently from Friday I am expecting the CET to slowly decline, very slow progress at first.. too far out to call where it it likely to land, somewhere around the 7.5-8 degree mark probably.

Very much doubt that such a figure would stick to the months end. Expecting a cooling trend next week so a plus 9 degree CET is looking a slim bet, probably more nearer the 8 - 8.5 degree mark, still a very mild month overall.

DL, I see you've upped your estimated range by a full half-degree from 24 hours earlier.....and I fear you may have to up it by another half-degree by tonight!

[Snowyowl9]

From what I can see for the rest of this month it`s atlantic wet`windy,except torwards the very end when lows show a much more S-ly track,but still no cold air enough for snow(sleet maybe high ground) may get an air frost month end.

9.5c I think it`ll finish,warmest since 1994 which was also an El nino year if I`ve got that right.

Looking somewhat cooler next week but atlantic W/SW-ly air is not much use to bring the CET much lower.

Edited November 20, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[reef]

Hadley came in at a stonkingly mild 12.7C yesterday to take the mean to 9.1C to the 19th. Today's minima is also down as 12.2C :unsure:, so tomorrow will definitely see us at 9.2C.