November CET

[reef]

Yesterday came in at a very mild 13.1C, taking the CET to the 20th on Hadley to 9.2C (9.25C rounded down).

We could well hit 9.3C by tomorrow's update, the minima is 5.4C, but maxima have widely been 13-15C in the zone.

[stewfox]

Yesterday came in at a very mild 13.1C, taking the CET to the 20th on Hadley to 9.2C (9.25C rounded down).

We could well hit 9.3C by tomorrow's update, the minima is 5.4C, but maxima have widely been 13-15C in the zone.

9.2c Have to go back to 1730 for that followed by

Dec 1730 3,4c

Jan 1731 1.9c

Feb 1731 4.7c

Which goes to show as they say in Las Vegas what happens in November stays in November.

I still thing we will be in the top ten up to last 3 days then all to play for.

Edited November 21, 2009 by stewfox

[Optimus Prime]

Mild first quarter with inistal S/SE winds. Turning more westerly later

1st-7th 10.3c

Mild westerlies or north westerlies with showers or longer spells of rain. A little cooler towards mid month

8th-14th 8.0c

Remaining mostly very mild after a cooler start with high pressure taking control from the continent. S/SE winds

15th-21st 9.0c

Mild at first but transitionaly colder during the last week of the month with frost across all areas and wintry showers towards the north.

22nd-31st 5.1c

Overall 8.1c

For once a decent forecast by the looks of things.

[Weather-history]

Hadley came in at a stonkingly mild 12.7C yesterday to take the mean to 9.1C to the 19th. Today's minima is also down as 12.2C , so tomorrow will definitely see us at 9.2C.

62 years ago today ,the CET daily mean was 14.4C with a CET mean minimum of 13.5 C

Hadley came in at a stonkingly mild 12.7C yesterday to take the mean to 9.1C to the 19th. Today's minima is also down as 12.2C , so tomorrow will definitely see us at 9.2C.

62 years ago today ,the CET daily mean was 14.4C with a CET mean minimum of 13.5 C

[Methuselah]

My prediction the same as Fred's - 7.2...Wrong again!

[Snowyowl9]

For once a decent forecast by the looks of things.

Not bad although it looks like a 9c to 9.5c finish with this cooler end,and theres been no NW-ly all month.

Either S/SE/SW and just about west.

But may get west/NW yet or a colder low over us month end.

But ECM is very poor today only showing a cooler west flow.

[reef]

62 years ago today ,the CET daily mean was 14.4C with a CET mean minimum of 13.5 C

Interesting that it happened exactly to the day. Quite a statistical quirk.

Hadley came in milder than expected at 9.8C yesterday. The mean now stands at 9.3C to the 21st.

The last 9 days need to achieve a mean of 6.9C for this month not to finish in the top 10 of all Novembers in the last 351 years provisionally.

[Summer of 95]

Noticed on Philip Eden's site that so far the Midlands has the greatest anomaly of all, at +2.5C- no doubt the complete lack of frosty nights has been the main reason (a typical November has at least 4-5 airfrosts here, 10 isn't unusual). Unbelievably East Anglia is drier than normal (96%)- this SE dry/elsewhere wet thing has been a depressing theme for most of this year.

[osmposm]

Dropped a tad - now 9.2 to the 22nd on Hadley.

With cooler finishing conditions on the way, below 9.0 now pretty likely, I'd have thought? But a place in the top ten warmest (8.5+) remains a racing certainty.

I wish I'd stuck with my original CET guess of 8.8

Indeed - and your original forecast: Very mild. Quite wet, particularly in the west. Very limited frost and snow. Perhaps chilly south-easterlies late in the month. is looking rather impressive at the moment, too.

Only horse still really in the race is Polar Continental's 8.9 (and perhaps Roger JS's 8.5). Reminds me of that Grand National when at an undemanding fence on the second circuit almost the entire field fell, were obstructed or refused, and only one horse - Foinavon, who was so far behind he avoided the mayhem - found a way through, got over first time, and stayed ahead long enough to win.

(Any younger members who've never seen it - it was in 1967 - can see a film of the chaos here: http://www.grand-national-world.co.uk/gnw/the_race/tales/foinavon.html )

Edited November 24, 2009 by osmposm

[WhiteXmas]

November 2001:

Scotland diary of highlights

Mild westerly winds predominate.

"High pressure to the south and south-west dominated the pressure pattern for most of November. Mild air tracking around the north of the high covered Scotland for much of the month, but there were occasional bursts of colder air from the north.

After the very warm October, the first few days of November saw a cooling trend as air of north-westerly origin penetrated the country. There was a reasonable amount of bright weather with showers and bands of mostly light rain. However, a depression moving south-east gave a very wet day on the 5th, with 51 mm of rain at Dalmally.

A veering of the airflow into the north ushered in a very cold day on the 8th with strong winds, and snow in the north and east. Many places experienced the first lying snow of the season, with 18 cm at Aviemore. Alternating spells of mild westerly and cold northerly winds continued for the next few days.

On the 14th the anticyclone moved north-east towards Britain, bringing a spell of settled weather. However, any brightness in the east at first was soon extinguished as the phenomenon known as 'anticyclonic gloom' took over. This was accentuated on the 18th and 19th when weak fronts penetrated the high and gave some rain.

On the 20th the anticyclone retreated to the south-west, allowing westerly winds with weak fronts to cross Scotland, and bringing alternations between warm and cold air. On the 23rd the temperature at Biggar fell to -5 °C but rose to 16 °C at Lossiemouth the next day.

During the final week westerly winds continued, but pressure was lower than earlier in the month. Rather cold and showery weather, with further snow on the 27th, was replaced by milder air with rain at times during the last three days."

From metoffice archives. It's unusual the similarities particularly towards the end of the month

[reef]

Hadley is back on 9.3C after yesterday came in at 10.8C.

Difficult to see us not recording a top 10 November now as today will see no change as the min temp is down as 7.2C.

[reef]

Hadley still on 9.3C to the 25th.

Its pretty much as high as it'll get this month. Today's min is down as 6.2C so today might just avoid a drop, from then on it's a steady fall until month's end. Even if we averaged 4.9C for the last 5 days of the month then it'll still be top 10 provisionally.

[The PIT]

9.1c to the 27th. A rather warm month.

[Roger J Smith]

:winky:

And just think, all that mild air is gone, can't come later, up in the arctic some place getting chilled.

For somebody.

[ukmoose]

Philip has the CET at 8.8 to the 28th so a slight drop but still a pretty mild looking month. Should drop a little more today and tomorrow. With the inevitable corrections maybe finishing around 8.6? Might be point 1 or 2 less than that but still heading for the top 10 warmest Novembers I think.

Edited November 29, 2009 by ukmoose

[ukmoose]

Not sure what Hadley is at the moment as I can't find it but going by Philip's site it's looking like Roger J Smith is in the box seat with 8.5 at the lower end with Polar Continental with 8.9 at the top end. Nothing in between so perhaps no-one will get it spot on this month...

[Roger J Smith]

No worries there, I've exchanged e-mails with Hadley on this.

[kold weather]

So we look likely to have a top 10 mildest November...and we also have a very real shout for a top ten wettest November as well, so looks like ending up being a pretty exceptional month.

[osmposm]

Not sure what Hadley is at the moment as I can't find it but going by Philip's site it's looking like Roger J Smith is in the box seat with 8.5 at the lower end with Polar Continental with 8.9 at the top end. Nothing in between so perhaps no-one will get it spot on this month...

It's here http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html , and it's 9.0 to the 28th.

Agree with your analysis. Barring a mega-adjustment, no-one will be on the money....

Only horse still really in the race is Polar Continental's 8.9 (and perhaps Roger JS's 8.5).

....and pretty much what I thought 6 days ago, though at a probable 8.6 or 8.7 it's now eased slightly away from PC and towards RJS...and indeed towards me (8.2), though not far enough!

Don's 8.2 will ensure that he retains top spot in the Annual Competion. Very impressive not to have blown it in this final, very challenging month!

Edited November 30, 2009 by osmposm

[Don]

1-29th November and Hadley is on 8.9C, Manley 8.5C, so a bit of a difference between the two. With another drop likely today, I think we'll probably end on 8.4 or 8.5C after an end of month rounding down from Hadley.

[osmposm]

It would have to be a very big adjustment to get to there, surely? If my maths is right (though I don't know what the current 8.9 was rounded from), we'd need around zero today to get below 8.6 unadjusted, and it's more likely to be nearer 8.7. Could they adjust down by 0.2 or even 0.3? Possible, I suppose.

[Snowyowl9]

So we look likely to have a top 10 mildest November...and we also have a very real shout for a top ten wettest November as well, so looks like ending up being a pretty exceptional month.

If it ends up as 8.5c like this site shows it won`t look so out of place,going by 2002 which was also 8.5c and an Elino year.

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

But it is certainly is what you said for all the wrong reasons,and esceptionally wet 175mms!!!

[Don]

If it ends up as 8.5c like this site shows it won`t look so out of place,going by 2002 which was also 8.5c and an Elino year.

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

But it is certainly is what you said for all the wrong reasons,and esceptionally wet 175mms!!!

I think November 1997 was also 8.5C, so a we've had typical El Nino November perhaps?

[reef]

Hadley is confirmed at 8.7C, there was no adjustment this month.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

That makes it the joint 8th warmest in 351 years and warmest in recent times since 1994.

It also makes Autumn the 3rd warmest in the last 50 years at 11.50C.

[Don]

A 0.3C difference between Manley and Hadley then. What a stinker of a month!

Edited December 1, 2009 by Don