Hurricane Ida

[Paranoid]

The Atlantic is still alive it seems. This one looks like it could thread the needle and make it into the GOM, the first one to do that this year i think.

Tropical Depression ELEVEN Public Advisory

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000

WTNT31 KNHC 041456

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009

1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN

SEA...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND

PROVIDENCIA.

AT 10 AM...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT

65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT

125 MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13

KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE

CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF

NICARAGUA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER

TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12

INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE

EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM

AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...

LOCATION...11.6N 82.0W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400

PM EST.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[Rob]

the current NHC track shows is weakening as it affects Latin America, but THEN strengthens and heads to the gulf! if it gets there is perfect breeding ground to become a Hurricane and make the first major US landfall this season. The Atlantic isn't dead yet!

[Cookie]

not by far

forgot to add recon flying this later today.

[Paranoid]

Hmm... The pink path doesn't look too good :S

[Rob]

not by far

forgot to add recon flying this later today.

Thats a heck of alot different to NHC!

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like we'll get Ida by next advisory based on satellite imagery. The circulation looks well defined and convection is very much persistant over the centre. It'll be interesting to see what recon find after completing the investigation.

NHC are uncertain on future track. It depends on just how strong 11L gets in the next 24hrs, which will effect how the depression responds to troughing which will ultimately lift 11L out of the current weak steering environment. Indeed, 11L has the potential to move into the Gulf which contains some warm, undisturbed tropical waters currently.

[Cookie]

recon flying at the moment

[Cookie]

we have IDA

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed Cookie, and Ida is a little stronger than I though it would be- intensity is 50kts. Ida is rapidly intensifying, but it only has another 12-18hrs over water. Land interaction will soon begin to occur so any further intensity gains should be modest. Ida is forecast to survive it's treck over Nicaragua as a tropical depression and then slowly re-strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean. However, NHC mentions Ida could dissipate over Nicaragua, and this is even more likely if any significant shift westwards is made when Ida is over land.

Ida, though only a tropical storm, could be deadly. Around 10 inches of rain is possible for Nicaragua, which will cuase life threatening floods and mudslides. Looks like Ida may sadly be the first real killer of the Atlantic 2009 season.

[Cookie]

lets hope the warnings are issued for this so the people can prepare as best as they can

[Somerset Squall]

Recon has completed a second pass and is now heading back to base. Intensity has been increased to 55kts, and an eye appears to be forming. I give Ida about a 50% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall.

[Cookie]

[Rob]

IDA becoming a Cat 1 before landfall isn't out of the question, plus its looking quite possible that IDA will make it intact to the gulf by Monday and regerate and possibly get stronger?

[SNOW_JOKE]

Ida will soon become classified by the NHC as a CAT1 within the next few hours, if not sooner given the Recon and Nicaragua government advisories. Inhibited moisture is all around to feed Ida looking at the Water Vapour images and nocturnal cooling will also play a part in explosive convection within the system at this stage.

[Rob]

Hurricane Watch now in force

000

WTNT61 KNHC 042230

TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM IDA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009

530 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

...IDA A LITTLE STRONGER...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...

AT 530 PM EST...2230 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A

HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS

NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA

AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING

IDA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO

NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.

FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[Cookie]

dose it appear that ida has stalled a little?

[Rob]

dose it appear that ida has stalled a little?

i'd say slowed down but not quite stalled, this will favor further development, looks like we will have a Cat 1 shortly.

[Cookie]

I hope this aint true but

A cat 4 in the Caribbean in this 18z GFDL run

[Rob]

that looks very likely to me cookie, this storm has got potential, and all conditions are pefect for development in that area, also high pressure is building over florida over the weekend and a trough SW of the storm at this time will channel it in a Northerly direction, right into the area where development can and will occur.

This is definately a very interesting storm to watch.

NHC has now said that there is a possbility of IDA becoming a CAT 1 before its first landfall

000

WTNT31 KNHC 042342

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009

700 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

...IDA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT HEADS TOWARD NICARAGUA...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA

FROM BLUFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN

COAST OF NICARAGUA AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND

PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65

MILES...100 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A

TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS

EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA

SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA EARLY

THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND IDA

COULD APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7

INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES

POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED

OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING

FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST INFORMATION...

LOCATION...12.2N 82.9W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM EST.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[Cookie]

something to keep an eye on over the next few days will be good to watch

[Rob]

something to keep an eye on over the next few days will be good to watch

about time we had something watch !

[londonsnow]

only the other day i was dismissing the hurricane season as pretty much over. well that appears to have been a wrong call, with the arrival of Ida. could be a very interesting system, but also lethal in the short term as it makes landfall. question is, will it make it to the gulf, and then what. certainly one to watch like a hawk. I'm sure the southern us state authorities will be.

EDIT. Latest advisory suggests 70 mph sustained winds, and just shy of hurricane status

[SNOW_JOKE]

NHC now have Ida as CAT1.

[Cookie]

not sure if this is 100% but apperntly the first hurricane to make landfall nicaragua in November

[kold weather]

Just a quick post from me today thanks to Uni work!

Anyway microwave imagery shows Ida is tracking NNW/N now just onshore. The structure is showing steady weakening in line with what would be expected with that as well.

Track should continue northwards more or less in the next 48-72hrs at least. The models are uncertain further on from that but I'd fully expect a bend to the NE and probably a Florida, maybe even Cuba strike. The NHC for now are showing a broadly northerly track but fully expect that to show a kink/bend to the NE over the next 24hrs or so.

As for strength, should emerge as a very low end TS/TD but conditions aloft are actually very impressive in the western Caribbean and heat content is still very high indeed so the only question is what state will it be in after land track. It'll probably have a good 36-48hrs over the great conditions so hurricane status looks quite possible and I wouldn't even rule out a major hurricane either. Shear in the GOM may actually support this becoming stronger for a little bit as the outflow becomes enhanced. Eventually upper shear looks likely to increase as the upper trough digs down and thats why I suspect it should bend back and probably weaken, though exact timings are uncertain.

Interesting to get a hurricane in the WCAR in an El Nino year in November thats for sure!