Hurricane Ida

[Cookie]

sorry if im being slow the WCAR? west Caribbean?

back down to tropical storm.

[Cookie]

borrowed from someone else

look at the track shift

[Somerset Squall]

Yup, west Caribbean Cookie.

Ida is doing very well so far over land, the storm is maintaining a very well defined circulation and deep convection. I think Ida will survive and re-emerge over water, though the NHC still mention the possibility of dissipation. Conditions will be favourable for re-strengthening as Ida exits the north coast of Nicaragua, but not for long, as shear is expected to increase to moderate levels in the Gulf Of Mexico which may cap intensification.

Ida has caused a lot of damage, but thus far, no deaths have been reported:

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=forums&module=post&section=post&do=reply_post&f=80&t=57416

[Somerset Squall]

Sorry, I'll try that link again, LOL:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jZDyKDSI4ECDKOp3eVKa6fBapkcg

[Rob]

IDA only just a Tropical Storm will be a depression by next advisory, however its expected to begin strengethen over water once again by Sat first thing.

[londonsnow]

yup, ida is now a TD, and looking very disorganised

[Jack Wales]

I think land interaction has really taken its toll on ida, I don't think there will be much left by tomorrow and any re-strengthening looks extremely unlikely in my opinion.

[Cookie]

I think land interaction has really taken its toll on ida, I don't think there will be much left by tomorrow and any re-strengthening looks extremely unlikely in my opinion.

im very suprised to see you writing this off mate.

its not done by far I can still see it getting back up to cat 1 statues in the GOM.

where it goes after that will it doesn't look to certain. seems to be a number of things maybe Florida landfall as a tropical storm depending on the shear. or even one expert was saying it would do a loop in the GOM and head back south we will have to wait and see.

[Rob]

nhc expecting the storm to begin to dissipate on Wednesday.

[Somerset Squall]

I think land interaction has really taken its toll on ida, I don't think there will be much left by tomorrow and any re-strengthening looks extremely unlikely in my opinion.

Although the convection is far removed from the centre, and most of what is flaring is over water, Ida maintains a fairly well defined centre which should emerge off Honduras later tonight. I think some re-intensification is likely as the Ida should use the fairly defined circulation to quickly gain strength. However, significat intensification appears unlikely due to 20kts of shear which is enough to cap significant gains. I can see Ida becoming a tropical storm again however.

Waters in the northern gulf of Mexico are cooler, and shear will increase dramatically once Ida reaches these waters. Therefore, Ida will probably become extratropical prior to effecting the USA, though this is uncertain.

[Cookie]

some damage from IDA

Eastern Nicaragua

just shy of being a tropical storm again

[Rob]

IDA has now regained Tropical Storm Status

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, Ida's intensity has now recovered to 40kts. Ida is located over very warm waters right now which would normally suggest rapid intensification. However, moderate shear is buffering the storm, and should cap significant intensification. NHC forecasts a secondary peak of 50kts, though if shear eases a little Ida could get a little stronger than this. Ida is likely to be one of those rare storms which enter the GOM and doesn't make landfall. Hurricane Alberto from 1982 is the last storm I can find that did this:

And Jeanne from 1980 (at a similar time of year):

An area of even higher shear, cooler sea temps and an approaching frontal boundary are protecting the USA from Ida. These three factors are likely to initiate and complete the transition into an extratopical storm west of Florida. Ida is then likely to drift southeastwards as it becomes involved with the front, but is uncertain what will happen thereafter. The most likely soloution is Ida will just dissipate in about 5 days time.

Edited November 7, 2009 by Somerset Squall

[londonsnow]

ida rapidly intensifying, up to 45 sustained winds. looking much more organised on the satellite. where will she go? wouldnt be surprised if ida becomes a hurricane again in the next day or two, depending of course on whether she interacts with land. the shear in her path appears to be a stumbling block for Ida. anyhow, an interesting system so late in the season

[Cookie]

[Cookie]

it looks like it will regain back to hurricane status any time soon.

[Rob]

IDA just shy of Hurricane status, there will be an upgrade by next advisory.

[Cookie]

I think their waiting for recon?

[Rob]

I think their waiting for recon?

I think so, its likely that IDA is already a Hurricane.

[Iceberg]

Quite a bit stronger than they thought. At the last full update she was still at 60Kts, then an intermediate update as a bouy measured hurricane strength winds, now recon how found the below which might qualify an upgrade to a CAT 2, pressure, surface winds (D) and flight winds should all support this, at the next full advisory.

URNT12 KNHC 080631

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009

A. 08/05:50:20Z

B. 20 deg 06 min N

085 deg 21 min W

C. 850 mb 1294 m

D. 82 kt

E. 008 deg 11 nm

F. 082 deg 96 kt

G. 005 deg 11 nm

H. 984 mb

I. 14 C / 1537 m

J. 26 C / 1516 m

K. 15 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF306 0311A IDA OB 09

MAX FL WIND 96 KT N QUAD 05:46:00Z

SPIRAL BAND THRU N QUADS

[Iceberg]

Pressure now sub 980.

GFDL takes it to a CAT 2 at landfall and HWRF a CAT 1, probably anywhere between a TS to CAT 3 is still possible at landfall.

Good route agreement for somewhere between Mobile Alabama and Destin at the far west of Florida for landfall..

Edited November 8, 2009 by Iceberg

[Rob]

wow IDA has grown into a very strong Cat 1 Hurricane, should be Cat 2 very soon, possibly a Cat 3 tomorrow?

[kold weather]

Over the next 12hrs things start to become more difficult to predict as it dheads towards the shear and out of the huge heat content. Before then though it still has prime waters to strengthen.

System looks impressive on radar and whilst the structure it has usually streuggles to get above low end category 2, it can't be ruled out that it will develop a more classic structure today and if it does a major is quite possible.

I think this also proves for sure that if it didn't landfall we'd have been looking at a 4/5 hurricane as well...now it has its core set-up if it does get the classic look, RI is a real possiblity still for the next 12-18hrs till it transfers to cooler waters again.

It probably won't weaken quite as fast as you'd think however and its quite possible it will peak in the southern GOM as the shear will probably if anything support Ida for a time and could enhance it a little. For now I'd call for a peak just below major status but we shall!

Overall I'm pretty happy with the call of a hurricane/possible major I made while this was over America, I was fearing that would be agressive but seems like Ida has pulled through on that respect.

Edited November 8, 2009 by kold weather

[Cookie]

thanks for the update kold

first signs of IDA are being seen from Florida

[Cookie]

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