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Winter / Autumn 2009-10 Part 4


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Posted
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)
  • Location: Northampton (90m ASL)

Ian's forecast is about what I expected. He does offer a glimmer of hope for February which is more than I was expecting from him, and it's a fairly plausible forecast given what's happening with El Nino.

The CFS meanwhile has its own ideas with all the winter months now showing as below average across England, and even colder to start Spring:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/euT2mMonNorm.gif

February does look very interesting with a big cold pool over W Europe, and cold conditions extending into March & April for the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

How about January :whistling:

I have no hunches at all for January- so I'm not really in a position to say how my thoughts on January compare to his.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

I posted about Ian Brown's forecast also on the other thread. I think some of the premises are a bit suspect (especially the assertions about mid latitude highs), but I see nothing unreasonable about the forecast itself- it's as good as any of the well-reasoned winter forecasts out there. My hunches regarding December and February are very similar to his.

Agreed. The general idea of a mild December and a colder February seems fairly universal in the LRFs I've seen so far (with the exception of the Met Office who haven't specified their thoughts month by month so far). But his claim that last year's cold was nothing more than inversion cold is far from the truth. In spite of that, his ideas of the winter are about as accurate as anyone elses at this time. As has been said before, we shall see in March, but I suspect Ian's forecast may not be all that far from the mark, at least with the idea that it will be colder in late winter than early winter, although the details seem fairly sketchy at the moment.

CW

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Quite frankly some of the posts in this thread which 'hint' at winter's over are pathetic.

It's frig#in november for pete's sake. No one and i mean no one knows what will happen over the coming winter months. I've seen many many mild starts to winter, but also cold starts. There are NO patterns. It's not worth comparing year to year.

A mild November does not mean a mild winter, nor does it mean colder weather will follow later. Dec could be cold, but then so could Jan and even Feb. On the other hand all months of winter could be mild. There again a couple of weeks in Jan could be absolutely freezing, but then it could happen in February. Who knows??

Just wait and see!hi.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

After last winter I think people's expectations of the coming winter and hopes of a cold scenario seem somewhat higher than in previous years.. reminds me of summer 2007 when everyone was comparing things to the summer just gone and how because of summer 2006 people would not accept anything other than a record heatwave.

The early cold start to last winter was great but rather exceptional, I'm a firm believer that winter doesn't really take hold until after christmas and I tend to expect much more from March when it comes to wintry weather than during the first half of Dec when the atlantic is traditionally at its most rampant. Apart from last year recent winters have seen our most sustained cold weather occuring during late winter/early spring...one thing I disliked about last winter in fact was the sudden aburpt end to wintry weather in mid Feb.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

To be brutally honest I was getting rather bored of last winter by February, because there was very little snow here, very little frost due to the dry air after mid January. Generally it was just dry, cold weather in fact so dry that after a while -2C, there wasn't any frost!, and that doesn't really rank amongst my favourite weather types so to I have to say brutally, I'm glad it ended.

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

...Having looked at the record yourself you will know that there was a gap of 45 years between the sub zero month of feb 1895 and the next one in Jan 1940 making the current gap of 23 years since feb 1986 seem pretty small fry really. Yet come the 1940's there was a climatic flip to colder winters....

Yes, but a sub zero has always been exceptionally rare. The problem, McW, is that the higher (and easier) you make the benchmark, the more extraordinary the current run seems - within our cultural memory, anyway.

As you rightly say, the current 23 winters without a sub zero CET month is nothing out of the ordinary. Our ongoing 22 winters without a sub 1.0 month also has precedents: 1895/96 - 1915/16 was 21 years, and 1716/17 - 1738/39 was 23. Moving up to sub 2.0, we are now at 18 years and counting - the previous record was 14 years (1902/03 - 1915/16). And if you make it the sub 3.0 we often mention, the current gap without is 12 years. This is completely unprecedented in the instrumental record period. Until the end of the 20th Century there seemed to be a firm upper limit of 6 winters without a sub 3.0: such a run of 6 happened once in the 18th Century, and three times in the 20th. But never before has it gone above - let alone doubled!

To be absolutely fair, a little while ago I also looked at the daily CET records, seeking comparisons of wintriness on a shorter timescale - cold snaps, if you like. And I'm afraid I found the same clear and undeniable evidence of unprecedentedly milder winter weather in the last couple of decades (when compared with the rest of the CET record). If you missed it, you can read the analysis here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57043-winterautumn-2009-10/page__st__765__p__1606152entry1606152

Things may flip back to a colder phase at some point - but it ain't gonna be easy, and there's no real sign of it happening yet. I sincerely hope this winter provides at least a hint of it, but I'm not holding my breath.

Under 'comedy' or 'propaganda' ?......

Oh please, please, give it a rest.

Edited by osmposm
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

To be brutally honest I was getting rather bored of last winter by February, because there was very little snow here, very little frost due to the dry air after mid January. Generally it was just dry, cold weather in fact so dry that after a while -2C, there wasn't any frost!, and that doesn't really rank amongst my favourite weather types so to I have to say brutally, I'm glad it ended.

Same here, Ste. It was about the crappiest cold spell I've ever seen!

That's your call but I think it is a shame that you see things in this way. We have to consider the last 22 years when considering this winter, the sheer scale of the changes force us to do so.

Agreed!

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

Same here, Ste. It was about the crappiest cold spell I've ever seen!

Agreed!

Why? Did we consider the 22 years before that, and then before that! Off course the last 22 years have been predominately mild, but Ian's even larger teapot theory is now crumbling, with a southerly tracking jet for 3 years running!
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Why? Did we consider the 22 years before that, and then before that! Off course the last 22 years have been predominately mild, but Ian's modern winter theory is now crumbling, with a southerly tracking jet for 3 years running!

Nothing to do with anyone's theories, Solar...I just don't enjoy cold rain, sleet and freezing fog! :rolleyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

That's true, but I wouldn't say its crumbling given that were about to go into a period with a northerly tracking jet. Don't forget its easy to think of a northerly tracking jet, or at least a southerly tracking jet as just that, but in fact this is often localised to the UK, somewhere else in the world there will be a northerly tracking jet, which means any cold is just part of a spatial cycle, mostly likely short term. In essence given out position it's probably in general fairly normal to have a northerly tracking jet.

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

yes indeed 3years of southerly tracking jet,

but now it not going as far south will this hold a little clue to this winters outcome.

there was a nino in 2007 rubbish winter,

last winter la nina betterish winter.

this winter nino,

or should i say so far is dominating already or helping to cause some pretty wild weather around the globe including more mild and wild than cold,

and if it strengthens futher then id expect the pattern we are in now to continue and yes cold snaps will happen regardless of nino but sustained cold much more unlikely.

but i will be honest cets have gone up over the years i hate humble pie but its fact this does not help with winters and cold.

but as always i hope im sooooo wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

That's true, but I wouldn't say its crumbling given that were about to go into a period with a northerly tracking jet.

Thats in FI, we ain't there yet and signs of adjustment on models within the reliable-ish time frame.

BFTP

this winter nino,

or should i say so far is dominating already or helping to cause some pretty wild weather around the globe including more mild and wild than cold,

Nino isn't dominating the global pattern currently. If it was and its effects are so well known then LRFs and models would be far more accurate than they are?

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

Why? Did we consider the 22 years before that, and then before that!.....

Yes. We did. It's the nature of the last 22 years compared with the 22 years before that, and then before that, and so on, that seems so worryingly unique. That's 10 or 11 such groups of 22 years being considered in the daily CET records (since 1772), and 15 or 16 since the monthly means start (in 1659).

By all those comparisons of actual recorded figures - and the length of previous mild runs - winter temperature-wise we have not been here before. Never, in 350 years. And on the same observed figure basis there are - so far - no signs of it having changed. Or even that it is has begun to change.

It's an unpalatable truth, but it seems to me that we must confront it - especially when considering the nature of the winter ahead.

Edited by osmposm
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

Yes. We did. It's the nature of the last 22 years compared with the 22 years before that, and then before that, and so on, that seems so worryingly unique. That's 10 or 11 such groups of 22 years being considered in the daily CET records (since 1772), and 15 or 16 since the monthly means start (in 1659).

By all those comparisons of actual recorded figures - and the length of previous mild runs - winter temperature-wise we have not been here before. Never, in 350 years. And on the same observed figure basis there are - so far - no signs of it having changed. Or even that it is has begun to change.

It's an unpalatable truth, but it seems to me that we must confront it - especially when considering the nature of the winter ahead.

Gee I wonder what they said in the MWP or LIA! laugh.gif

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

Thats in FI, we ain't there yet and signs of adjustment on models within the reliable-ish time frame.

BFTP

Nino isn't dominating the global pattern currently. If it was and its effects are so well known then LRFs and models would be far more accurate than they are?

BFTP

i dont agree i think it is and because of other forcings it causing inaccurate readings,

infact im not so sure the models are inaccurate i think there doing pretty well in the medium term,

as for lrf there has been some steady changes going on jet is powered up arctic is not responding so good lack of cold in places and sst,s responding to nino even solar activity is on the rise.

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Posted
  • Location: Canada
  • Location: Canada

i dont agree i think it is and because of other forcings it causing inaccurate readings,

infact im not so sure the models are inaccurate i think there doing pretty well in the medium term,

as for lrf there has been some steady changes going on jet is powered up arctic is not responding so good lack of cold in places and sst,s responding to nino even solar activity is on the rise.

There is no increased solar activity.

http://umbra.nascom....t_mdi_igram.gif

http://spaceweather.com/

Edited by kippure
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

So basically with El Nino dominating, we are not going to have any cold spells, cold snaps, frost, snow anything at all until february? Is that correct?

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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

So basically with El Nino dominating, we are not going to have any cold spells, cold snaps, frost, snow anything at all until february? Is that correct?

According to the orcale (Ian Brown) we are not!

Edited by Solar Cycles
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Wow... Seriously that sucks. Forget it, i hate winter now. How can we have nothing not even frost, colder night NOTHING until Feb! that makes no sense! :drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Wow... Seriously that sucks. Forget it, i hate winter now. How can we have nothing not even frost, colder night NOTHING until Feb! that makes no sense! :wallbash:

According to Ian Brown, December will be blowtorch if not the warmest on record!

The CFS is thinking chilly instead! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/euT2mMonNorm.gif

It could be that the truth lies somewhere in between. I certainly can't see why this December will be the warmest on record! Mild possibly but no records for me...

Karyo

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

According to Ian Brown, December will be blowtorch if not the warmest on record!

The CFS is thinking chilly instead! http://www.cpc.ncep....uT2mMonNorm.gif

It could be that the truth lies somewhere in between. I certainly can't see why this December will be the warmest on record! Mild possibly but no records for me...

Karyo

There is still definatly time for change. The weather can be sometimes unpredictible - An example would be the unpredicted 2 foot of snow Ireland got in 2007. I dont see why Ian says warm, yet some charts suggest cold. Lets just see how december plots out.

Even if it is a mild winter, frosty nights will be quite common, am i correct?

Edited by Backtrack
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Wow... Seriously that sucks. Forget it, i hate winter now. How can we have nothing not even frost, colder night NOTHING until Feb! that makes no sense! :wallbash:

v. fore·cast or fore·cast·ed, fore·cast·ing, fore·casts v.tr.

1. To estimate or calculate in advance, especially to predict (weather conditions) by analysis of meteorological data.

2. To serve as an advance indication of; foreshadow:

When the Winter you wanted has, or hasn't happened, then you can cheer or despair (in the correct thread of course!). In the meantime, please use the free advice service here: netweather.tv/topic/how-to-make-it-through-the-winter-on-the-nw-forum/

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I don't think Ian's forecast specifies no snow at all during December and January, it just suggests a dominance of warm south-westerlies and high pressure to the SE. But most such months do have occasional snow events particularly in the north- take 1989/90 for example. 1988/89 was exceptional for its absence of snow events in December and January- even December & January 1974/75 had a few snow events in the north.

And indeed, it is just a forecast, and no long-range forecast should ever be taken as gospel.

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