Rain / Winds / Storms - Friday Into Saturday

[Nick F]

What would people suggest is a good time to set the alarm for so I don't miss the main event? I'm thinking 3am... when is the cold front expected?

Cold front is currently lying roughly between Liverpool and Weymouth ... so Devon/ Cornwall and Wales in post frontal unstable rPm airmass.

[slinky1989]

Along with the Level 2 from Estofex and Tornado Watch from Torro I think I am right in saying this is the 1st ever MODERATE RISK From Netweather since the Convective Outlooks went into the new style, so please take notice of this if you are out and about early tomorrow morning.

Paul S

Damn it! I have to walk to work tomorrow at 8:30am. Hope it isn't going to be too bad for the walk. If it calms down for 15 minutes then I'll be happy

[dogs32]

absolutely pouring here....with not much wind..

I think I will get up around 3 myself James and check the radar then

Edited November 13, 2009 by dogs32

[Just Before Dawn]

I've attempted to update with 21z data in the link below-note the term-'attempted' !

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57526-following-the-low-friday-into-saturday/page__gopid__1613120&

Cheers John.

Quite a complex situation at the moment it would appear. Even with some fag packet calculations on rainfall and tide times, this must be a nightmare for the Environment Agency to predict. I guess there are potential overtopping from coastal wave action and fluvial tide lock event risks tomorrow morning and potentially tomorrow evening along a stretch of coast from say Falmouth round to Southampton and potentially parts of the south Wales coast, but any certainty is impossible with the system as complex as this.

EDIT

The EA have presently got 121 flood warnings or flood watches in force, the majority of which are located along the south and south-west coasts from the Isle of Wight westwards and in Wales. A mix of fluvial and coastal over-topping warnings.

EA flood warning page - click on the symbol to see where the warnings apply

Edited November 13, 2009 by Just Before Dawn

[Polar Bear]

Wind has eased considerably here, now only 30mph at strongest gusts. Had 30.1mm of rain so far today.

eased considerably here too....why is that?

[Paul]

Nmm 18z is in, subtle changes from the 12z..

Following it through tonight and into tomorrow.

As we are now, tallies well with the lull being reported by those in the west.

By 3am, aside from the far southwest it's just a moderately breezy night:

Winds are back by 8am though:

By midday that's spread to much of the south of the country - inc east anglia:

Then by 7pm it's almost all over, until Monday (perhaps!)...

[Marcus_surfer]

eased considerably here too....why is that?

there are two "waves" of strong winds, the other one is still to come and this is forecast to be the more severe wave

[snow raven]

are there any chances of this being as bad as 1987?*LOL!*

I very much doubt it! I dont think I will ever experience that again in my life time

Was about to mention something about this - max temp anywhere was 15c at around 5pm, now we're up to 17c in london!

http://www.netweathe...type=maxt;sess=

Is this significant in the storm forecast? I can't get remotely excited about tonights wind and rain Its like a usual night outside - hardly a breeze!

[winter watcher]

Rain lashing it down here along with really strong winds in my area not really what i wanted to be honest as i explained earlier i have a river at the back off me and after this morning i walked me dog and the river level was high and looking like any more heavy rain and it could burst.

[Lewis]

Paul, them models suggest 60mph gusts for me?

Its bearly reached 30mph here at all sustained never mind gusts.

So models may not always be correct

Nmm 18z is in, subtle changes from the 12z..

Following it through tonight and into tomorrow.

As we are now, tallies well with the lull being reported by those in the west.

By 3am, aside from the far southwest it's just a moderately breezy night:

Winds are back by 8am though:

By midday that's spread to much of the south of the country - inc east anglia:

Then by 7pm it's almost all over, until Monday (perhaps!)...

[Paul]

In fairness lewis, a weather station in prob a built up area may not be 'correct' either!!! It's an 8km meso model, not an accurate for every street in town model

[Just Before Dawn]

Thanks for the update Paul - IF it plays out that way, it's probably good news, at least in flood risk terms - the strongest on-shore southerlies for the south coast peak around low tide and by the following high tide - around 6-8pm tomorrow evening, they've moderated quite a lot. Depending on how the Met O see it, it might mean some of the flood watches for coastal areas in force presently start to get downgraded in the next few hours.

Edited November 13, 2009 by Just Before Dawn

[Lewis]

In fairness lewis, a weather station in prob a built up area may not be 'correct' either!!! It's an 8km meso model, not an accurate for every street in town model

lol, i just spent 20 mins with a hammer in the back garden, only had the boxers and a top on lmfao, was knocking the hammer on the mount for the weather station to get it a little higher I got a right blooody draft

Upto now, its gone from 8.2km wind speeds to around 9 so SUCCESS! , when it calms down im gunna stick the bloody thing on the roof.

Edited November 13, 2009 by Lewis

[Schnee]

Bit worrying that the posters from Cornwall have gone quiet. Hope things are not too serious.

[dogs32]

just having a torrentail shower here for the last 20 mins or so....was just getting into bed when I saw a high up flash of lightning...No thunder though I think it was a fair few miles away.....

Rain still heavy but comming in waves of thundery rain in nature

[Marcus_surfer]

just having a torrentail shower here for the last 20 mins or so....was just getting into bed when I saw a high up flash of lightning...No thunder though I think it was a fair few miles away.....

Rain still heavy but comming in waves of thundery rain in nature

Very nice, thats good news for those showers brewing out to the SW, they could be very squally

[dogs32]

Very nice, thats good news for those showers brewing out to the SW, they could be very squally

yes certainly turned Squally thundery showers here...

Im almost certain it was lightning I saw..

If I see anymore I will come back on and report apart from that im in bed listening to the lovely downpour here

[snow raven]

lol, i just spent 20 mins with a hammer in the back garden, only had the boxers and a top on lmfao, was knocking the hammer on the mount for the weather station to get it a little higher I got a right blooody draft

Upto now, its gone from 8.2km wind speeds to around 9 so SUCCESS! , when it calms down im gunna stick the bloody thing on the roof.

Bless, your as nutty in real life as you appear on Net Weather

[viking_smb]

just having a torrentail shower here for the last 20 mins or so....was just getting into bed when I saw a high up flash of lightning...No thunder though I think it was a fair few miles away.....

Rain still heavy but comming in waves of thundery rain in nature

we had 1 flash I think , when I was driving back from tesco's getting a six pack of diet coke cans earlier,

[hobbielancie]

Hello

First post.

Breezy here in Norfolk and outside temp rising to 14c at the moment. East Anglia normally gets away with the worst of it. I wonder if we will again?

[Paul]

Welcome aboard H, tomorrow is the day for ea!

[A.J]

Bit worrying that the posters from Cornwall have gone quiet. Hope things are not too serious.

I heard this godawful noise in the wind, I looked up into the skies, and saw the county of Cornwall blown off the map north eastwards towards the north sea...being a Devonian, thats not necessarily a bad thing....

Edited November 13, 2009 by ajpoolshark

[Paul Sherman]

23z Temps are remarkable for the time of year!

17c - London AP

16C - London City

16c - Southend On Sea

A lot of Potential Energy around tonight!

Looks like the CF That Nick spoke about is stalling to me on the latest radar returns, how this will affect the ongoing developing situation is anyones guess at present ?

Paul S

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

Is this as stormy as it going to get in Southern/ SE England because it only feels fairy windy, my hopes had probably got up too high:p- im confused as to weather its going to get more windy tonight/ tommorow, stay the same or die down? I think we had bigger gusts earlier. doesn't feel like theirs tornado risks atm anyway.

[Nick F]

Looks like the CF That Nick spoke about is stalling to me on the latest radar returns, how this will affect the ongoing developing situation is anyones guess at present ?

Paul S

Hi Paul, 22z UKMet synoptic analysis showed a wave in the cold front across SW England, probably what's holding up its eastward progression.

Some lively showers with sferics heading across Cornwall/Devon and also over SW Wales in the unstable rPm airmass post front.