Rain / Winds / Storms - Friday Into Saturday

[littlemissy]

WOW fork lightening ,no thunder no rain............just yet.

[Lewis]

Just hit my higest gust according to my weather station 12.2mph which im pretty sure is way off. I cant seem to find any local weather observations this side of the humber so i can compare the averages .

lewis

[Devon-Nelly]

Just seen a brilliant bright flash to the south but no thunder i think its from that cell skirting the south coast.

Fingers crossed

[Lewis]

Just seen a brilliant bright flash to the south but no thunder i think its from that cell skirting the south coast.

Fingers crossed

Indeed it is, i was just looking at that cell a second ago, you can clearly see the sferics popping up now on the netweather lightning detector;

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

[sunny scunny]

Just hit my higest gust according to my weather station 12.2mph which im pretty sure is way off. I cant seem to find any local weather observations this side of the humber so i can compare the averages .

lewis

The highest gust around my area is 44mph mate.Im keeping an eye on that heavy rain just to my south currently.

[Lewis]

The highest gust around my area is 44mph mate.Im keeping an eye on that heavy rain just to my south currently.

That confirms it my weather station is offically infertile Well regarding the wind it is.

I'm keeping an eye on that rain too mate, hopefully could intensify some more, the way its going you see that red echo, thats heading right for me

Edited November 14, 2009 by Lewis

[stewfox]

Heavy rain here winds def picking up

One big pot plant fallen over wont pick it up till morning

One mother in law fallen over. likewise

[sunny scunny]

That confirms it my weather station is offically infertile Well regarding the wind it is.

I'm keeping an eye on that rain too mate, hopefully could intensify some more, the way its going you see that red echo, thats heading right for me

It looks like the heaviest rain is too far west on the latest image.

[littlemissy]

I can hear fence panels rattling............ and my neighbour's hedge looks rather well scraggy .

No more lightning though.And no more rain.

[winter watcher]

Christ its gone very quiet all off a suden. Just looked at the latest beeb forcast still looks on as a major storm maybe put the strongest winds back by a few hours so may well catch some sleep and set alarm for 4am

[Lewis]

It looks like the heaviest rain is too far west on the latest image.

Agreed, it is a very messy radar! They will be a clear window for some time for parts of the midlands, yorkshire/lincs. and also further south, its the orientation of the flow, it shows a squal line forming now just over wales, thatll probably push to the north of us SUFC, but there is a small chance it may hit us directly, its all fun and games

lewis

Edited November 14, 2009 by Lewis

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

Just got up to check latest shipping forecast. Slightly down on the earlier one. Only Force 10 for Wight now, no mention of possibly Force 11. Ah well, fun over I suppose. Force 10 is nothing special.

F10 seems like a lot to me, but then ive never lived near the sea.

[toggerob]

I reckon I'll get some 2 hours kip myself. The Trough is behind on the Models from its development stage and the Dry-Slot has barely moved out the Irish Sea the past 2 hours. I'd say the Low is now 3 hours behind from what the GPS was progging it to be at this time on the 12z run. No point staying up to watch some Warm Front activity when the fun and games are coming in a few hours time again with the arrival of the Cold Front and Trough. See you all shortly.

[Lewis]

Looking at the expected accumlation rainfall charts over the next 24 hours, it certainly looks spot on (the NMM model that is) With the NW and parts of western scotland along with wales getting the heaviest rainfall.

[Marcus_surfer]

Just made this. Storm is taking it's hurricane like shape

[Lewis]

Just made this. Storm is taking it's hurricane like shape

Cool looks very nice, now i have an image for you, i know its FI but take a look at this baby for next friday, now this would cause widespread damage;

[Zachary]

Cool looks very nice, now i have an image for you, i know its FI but take a look at this baby for next friday, now this would cause widespread damage;

Wow! Any ideas where it will be heading?

[Marcus_surfer]

Cool looks very nice, now i have an image for you, i know its FI but take a look at this baby for next friday, now this would cause widespread damage;

Looks like scotland could get something there

[Lewis]

Wow! Any ideas where it will be heading?

Looks like scotland could get something there

Its a long way off next friday in terms of forecasting, i never like to forecast anymore than 72 hours out, 24 when it comes to snow.

But if that comes off, you would be looking at sustained wind speeds of 50-60mph in places across the N belt of england, yorkshire, W isles, Scotland etc, with gusts upto 90mph easily.

The isobars infact get tighter on the next run, i didnt go that far ahead

Then again if you look at the Jet at the time of the above chart, looks fantastic but suspect, although i would take the position of the jet stream;

Edited November 14, 2009 by Lewis

[winter watcher]

Getting alot worse now in surrey just poped outside and the rain comeing down is unbelieveable and the winds are really getting going now. I suppose by now the river at the back off me is about to or already has bursed. Just going to check the latest on me local radio.

[Lewis]

The winds are really getting strong here now, i'm sleeping downstairs tonight as i'm on live support standby on my websites, all is quiet in the living room and the windows are just ratteling, and the howl is monsterous.

[toggerob]

Back, I didnt get much sleep as even near Manchester with having a Southerly facing House the 30 mph wind is rattling the house.

Im starting to notice on the Coastal webcams now aswell that as we approach the High-Tide mark some of the coastal roads are beginning to see the first signs of Sea-Spray coming over the Coastal Barriers.

[NL]

ESTOFEX have their forecast up for tomorrow issued 00:06am

http://www.estofex.org/

DISCUSSION

... S-UK and the English Channel ...

The main story of the day will be the passage of the upper trough axis with the attendant intense depression/pressure gradient over S-UK/the English Channel.

The wind forecast is straightforward as 35-40m/s at 850hPa will mix down easily towards the surface, so damaging and potential life-threatening wind gusts affect the southern part of the UK until 18 UTC, exiting the area thereafter towards the east. Some weakening of the wind field is forecast over far SE-UK, but kinematics are still adequate for isolated extreme wind gust events.

The tornado risk is already more uncertain but most likely maximized along the coastal areas of S/SE-UK, where some onshore moisture causes marginal CAPE. Strong tornadoes will be possible, if more persistent updrafts can evolve. However this brings us to the main uncertainty: convection.

The region will be placed beneath the weakening sting jet, where intrusion of dry, high-level air and constantly evaporatively cooled airmass inhibits deep convection. This is also seen in warm EL temperature forecasts and slim convective precipitation signals. However, dry slotted areas could also see some insolation and not much BL modification is needed along the coast for deeper convective updrafts. A strong vorticity love also crosses S-UK during the daytime hours, so despite slim signals, at least supportive conditions for deep convection can't be ruled out along the coast and SE-UK.

Probably the most likely scenario will be a rapidly E/NE-ward racing forced line of convection over S-UK. Conditions onshore become worse, so the strongest activity remains confined along the south coast (probably enhanced by diurnal heating) and the level 2 was expanded inland, where the tornado risk is enhanced next to the damaging wind gust threat. As convection is forecast to play at least a partial role in this severe wind event, a level 2 became necessary. The overall risk diminishes from west to east during the day. The level-2 was expanded well towards the west, as latest data indicates a slow-down of the eastward progression of the strongest winds.

Further north, west-central UK, an isolated tornado event is also forecast, given some marginal CAPE and strong shear. A level 1 may cover this risk due to the overall weaker shear.

Edited November 14, 2009 by NL

[toggerob]

And for anyone intrested, newest Meto IR shows a classic Sting-Jet on the Southern Hook off Southern Ireland.

[PeterDoswell]

i dont know if this is my imagination but i feel that the low is beginning to deepen even further . this is clearly visible if you look at the last two hour met office sattelite runs . the area for concern is currently around 150 miles west of lands end and travelling east at around 50 miles an hour on average . around 0530 we will have a good idea of what cornwall and devon are experiencing . i feel it is going to be a lot worse than expected . around 0930 to 1000 london will be affected by this . rush hour chaos in a well populated inland area dangerous and very very high wind speeds . we are experiencing a lull . sadly it does look like it is deepening but there is also a slight sign it is moving slightly south south east . i feel northern france may get a severe battering from this too . can anyone confirm deepening and list any bouys around the centre of this low ?

Edited November 14, 2009 by PeterDoswell