Atlantic Lows - November Onwards

[Iceni]

Below is a link to the Met Office regarding what to do during severe weather events; I think if you want up to date information regarding the risks of upcoming severe weather, this will be your best source, as well as the Environment Agency when there is the risk of flooding.

Severe Weather Advice

Edit: GFS 12z run coming out now, and I must say that Saturday's LP system is looking like another Jan 2005. Mean winds speeds of 70-80mph across the western isles of Scotland with gusts reaching 100mph - these would be storm force winds. The whole of Ireland and far NW would experience severe gales with gusts into the 80s.

Must be reminded that it is still quite far away, but the GFS is being persistent with this one, and the ECM has only just gone along with it in terms of intensity. I think quite a few people will be hoping this does not pull off.

Hmmm... thank you and John H both for the advice. Looks like I'll wait for Thursday and then make the decision. I really hate storms (ever since the '87 hurricane) so I'm being a bit of a wimp.

[Snowyowl9]

I`ve been keeping an eye on thursday as that looks like the strongest winds of this week,severe gales even in the west.

Something like this can be missed,as this use to happen quite often during the 90`s with SW-lys.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack1.gif

[Cookie]

Edit: GFS 12z run coming out now, and I must say that Saturday's LP system is looking like another Jan 2005. Mean winds speeds of 70-80mph across the western isles of Scotland with gusts reaching 100mph - these would be storm force winds. The whole of Ireland and far NW would experience severe gales with gusts into the 80s.

you know how to make someone's night

[Zenarcher]

Just in from the 18z looks like its moved it south again,

Saturday 12pm

Saturday 3pm

Saturday 6pm

Saturday 9pm

However on Sunday it moves up north,

But won't bring anything to interesting,

[damianslaw]

Its a very volatile atlantic at the moment, the most volatile its been all autumn.

Difficult to call where the strongest winds will occur in the coming days, generally western coastal parts will most likely be in the firing line, with NW Scotland and Western Isles looking like seeing severe gales on thursday.

Saturday is too far out at this stage to call, signs of a developing secondary low zipping across the country, but we won't know its track until Friday, I think it could be a bit more southerly than perhaps many are expecting as the jet is sinking a little bit further to the south it seems. Still its a very unsettled outlook and the weekend at this stage will once again be a windy unsettled affair .

[Liam J]

how long can the gfs scare us with that storm at the weekend, surely it will downgrade to a more typical looking situation? or maybe not as im sure that would be another january 2005 situation with 90-100mph gusts on the cumbrian coast where mature trees and chimney stacks were scattered around!!

24 hours later the gfs is still going for a sub 960mb low, with the ecm now showing a deep low, if that came off there would be storm 10 winds around coasts and severe gales quite a way inland.

before the weekend we have the next 2 or 3 days to worry about in regards to flooding and severe gales on thursday, looking at the fields and rivers they cant hold much more water, first time this autumn ive worried about the weather!!

as my commute is 60 miles to work.

also that shallow surface low thursday looks like creating a tight pressure gradient as it moves ne, expect warnings to include severe gales during the next 24 hours as gfs going for mean wind speeds over the irish sea 45-52mph, and 35-40mph just inland and gusts in excess of 60-65mph likely.

a very interesting if worrying 3-4days and im hoping that storm is a gfs fantasy!!!

[Zenarcher]

Looking at xcweather at the moment England and Wales looks stormy at Mumbles Head southern Wales its gusting to 67mph. Aberdaron is gusting to 81mph at the west coast of Wales.

[Snowyowl9]

A good gale here all last night with driving rain,and yes parts of Wales are already had storm force winds.

Hourly winds at Aberaron 59/61 and 56mph the seas must be very rough,just south of Aber.

And thursday hasn`t come yet,showing stronger winds still.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack0a.gif

Then a huge upgrade on the fax coming weekened,where will this hit.!!!

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack2a.gif

[Snowyowl9]

XC is predicting mean speed of 71mph in the Irish sea alone,and 55mph west coast of Wales saturday night,and that looks like quite a downgrade to the 0z run which showed the low heading right across the country,with winds on a scale of January 2007,when the severe westerlies come.

So it`s rather uncertain still.

[Harry]

Wow, Aberdaron recording a 81mph gust earlier this morning with severe gales across other parts of Wales. I was predicting gusts around 60-65mph, which there has been, but this system is seems to have brought some very strong winds early. It has been blustery all night here with some gusty south westerly winds, reaching around 40mph at times but nothing significant, as expected.

Tomorrow will be worse than today in terms of both wind and rainfall. GFS showing some heavy and persistent rainfall for the NW, western Scotland and NI with severe gales possible. Though judging by the winds today, I'd say severe gales are probably likely in these regions.

Then all eyes on Saturday and into Sunday where we have agreement from the three main models with the development of a very deep LP system. The track, I think, seems to be shifting slightly west, which is what the FAX chart would seem to suggest, so many places may escape some of the strongest winds, which at the moment look very stormy indeed. However, I still think it's likely that Ireland, the NW, and the western half of Scotland will experience severe gales during this period.

This is what Autumn is all about! Now if only that Low for Saturday shifted east a few hundred miles. Oh dear, better be careful what I wish for!

Remember the last storm tracked further S, affecting predominately southern regions of England, whereas previously it was forecast to move relatively speaking much further North. No reason to assume this won't follow suit, particularly as there seems to be a trend at the moment - the blocking High over the continent meaning we (UK) are getting it quite bad.

Makes for gripping watching

[Zenarcher]

Just in from the 12z,

Saturday 12pm,

Saturday 3pm,

Saturday 6pm,

Sunday 12am,

Sunday 6am,

Sunday 12pm,

Sunday 6pm,

Monday 12am,

Timing has changed again also a slight downgrade.

[Mondy]

Current low in the N. Atlantic is at 957mb: http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?hour=0〈=en&map=AtlN

[johnholmes]

our alert may need to have the upper rainfall totals for the Lakes area along with parts of sw and w Scotland increased.

Make no bones about this its looking very serious.

We also have to remember two other things

1. the weekend has the prospect of further high rainfall and winds for some

2. the east of Scotland is escaping pretty much but for those near the major rivers its POSSIBLE, no more than that at the moment, that a largish part of the rainfall for western Scotland could fall on the catchment areas for those rivers. Please bear this in mind.

[Snowyowl9]

Much further south on the 12z run and looks much smaller,but of the same look to last weekened.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn961.png

Severe gales if that comes off but covering further north to last weekened,but it may even go further south.

[The PIT]

GFS delaying Saturdays storm and pushing into Sunday so now it's Sundays storm. Staying out in FI so could just end up being a crisp packet stirrer when it gets within the reliable time frame.

[Just Before Dawn]

GFS delaying Saturdays storm and pushing into Sunday so now it's Sundays storm. Staying out in FI so could just end up being a crisp packet stirrer when it gets within the reliable time frame.

Yup. Wouldn't be the first time The Apocalypse has faded into a fance-rattler and not much else on the edge of reliable. There are still some pretty strong winds associated with the thing, but the 12 hours of hurricane-force SSW's blowing through the Irish Sea Saturday night into Sunday have gone with the last couple of runs.

[Snowyowl9]

The UKMO looks the same as earlier showing a massive atlantic storm,but the euro high is in the way and so ends up over the north,and the strongest winds have eased off by that time.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rukm961.gif

Models are struggling.

[Zenarcher]

Capel Curig (north west Wales) is currently recording gusts of 70mph.

[Liam J]

very stormy looking for the next 24 hours or so, im living in the area expecting the most rainfall 100-250mm im lucky im in a elevated postition here near the coast, however the severe gales will be more of a worry where i live

weatheronline say 80-90mph gusts tomorrow??!! i cant see that....60-70mph possible

stay safe all those who are under the met office dark red extreme weather warnings

[Snowyowl9]

Or perhaps the GFS is struggling?

On another note, it is quite blustery out there this evening, with winds gradually increasing throughout this evening and during tomorrow.

Quite,although the jet is still showing quite S-ly and we know what happened last weekened,anyway I`m taking a break from watching that low,and look to tomorrow which does look very windy still.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack0.gif

More of a S/SW-ly so slightly sheltered just here.

very stormy looking for the next 24 hours or so, im living in the area expecting the most rainfall 100-250mm im lucky im in a elevated postition here near the coast, however the severe gales will be more of a worry where i live

weatheronline say 80-90mph gusts tomorrow??!! i cant see that....60-70mph possible

It reached 81mph in 3 places in Wales this morning so,that was unexpected really.

[Cookie]

getting windy here gusting 50 mph at the moment.

re sat wish the jet would move further north already

[Zenarcher]

18z,

Saturday 3pm

Sunday 3pm,

Monday 3am,

[Cookie]

still looking to far south for me.

[Zenarcher]

still looking to far south for me.

We should get something on Saturday afternoon but nothing severe.

[Cookie]

Just some 95mph+ gusts, the kind of wind which would kill us southern softies in 3 seconds but which you and Cookie would be out in, as if it was just another day :wacko: :)

I shoot myself im the foot, my standers are to high as to what I want with regards to strong winds, 50 mph I don't bat and eye lid and only start paying attention when it reaches 50 mph. so cause my standers are so high I get frustrated with the weather to easily.