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December CET


WhiteXmas

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

As of 2.45 a.m. 1st December, a healthy 84 entries covering 37 different guesses.

Identical entries are listed in order of posting. 5.1 is the 1971-2000 mean:

8.5 Craig Evans

7.4 Optimus Prime

7.2 Mike W

7.2 mark forster 630

7.0 The Pit

7.0 Gavin P

6.6 reef

6.5 robthefool

6.5 Thundery Wintry Showers

6.5 Timmy H

6.4 Tonyh

6.3 GRHinPorts

6.2 Anti-Mild

6.1 Jack Wales

6.1 Stargazer

6.0 Milhouse

6.0 vesuvius

6.0 sundog

6.0 acbrixton

5.9 Mr_Data

5.9 mK13

5.9 bluearmy

5.8 osmposm

5.8 kold weather

5.8 Timmead

5.7 alza

5.7 Stu_London

5.7 Don

5.6 sufc

5.6 daveshug

5.6 JACKONE

5.5 LomondSnowstorm

5.5 Glacier Point

5.4 damianslaw

5.4 mark bayley

5.3 James M

5.3 Megamoonflake

5.3 snowmaiden

5.3 virtualsphere

5.3 chionomaniac

5.3 Mr Maunder

5.3 Great Plum

5.2 shuggee

5.2 Norrance

5.2 arcticfox

5.2 TomSE20

5.1 SteveB

5.1 ukmoose

5.1 summer blizzard

5.1 BLAST FROM THE PAST

5.0 Fozzi 999

5.0 Pete Tattum

5.0 NaDamantaSam

4.9 WhiteXmas

4.8 Summer of 95

4.8 The watcher

4.8 Stratos Ferric

4.7 Cal

4.7 DAVID SNOW

4.7 Roger J Smith

4.7 phil n.warks.

4.7 shaunwales – late penalty (1 day)

4.6 Koppite

4.6 fozfoster

4.6 AtlanticFlamethrower

4.5 derby4life

4.5 Snowstorm1

4.5 adamjones416

4.5 snowray

4.4 Snowman0697

4.3 ned

4.3 Devon-Nelly

4.1 Duncan McAlister

3.9 BARRY

3.9 Snowyowl19

3.8 mullender83

3.8 pjb120

3.8 stewfox

3.4 cooling climate

3.3 Polar Side

3.1 Terminal Moraine

3.0 North Sea Snow Convection - late penalty (1 day)

2.5 Polar Gael

1.0 trickydicky

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Posted
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme winter cold,heavy bowing snow,freezing fog.Summer 2012
  • Location: South Derbyshire nr. Burton on Trent, Midlands, UK: alt 262 feet

late again, 4.5c

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Early days but I've got a funny feeling my entry is going to be on the low side, looking at latest model trends a 6+ return is looking quite possible unless we can get some inversions...of course if we do get an easterly then this will change but models are backing away from this and instead I think we could have something not far from a bartlett in the end of the day...models really de-amplifiying the jet compared to before...

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

I'm going to go for.... 4.7c!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I agree Kold, the next ten days show the status-quo continuing with low pressure centred to the west/south west of the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

A few entries still drifting in. After midnight tonight I'll update that list to include the later guesses up to two days late (-20 points), and then let it stand.

Any more for any more? Just one would make it a nice round 90 players!

Edit: have we ever made the ton, does anybody know?

Edited by osmposm
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A few entries still drifting in. After midnight tonight I'll update that list to include the later guesses up to two days late (-20 points), and then let it stand.

Any more for any more? Just one would make it a nice round 90 players!

Edit: have we ever made the ton, does anybody know?

Last year in December there were 109.

Jan 09 there were 131

Feb 09 there were 106

Mar 09 there were 110

They then fall off to a maximum of 76 for the last of the year, as after the winter, interest in the competition falls away.

Cheers also for doing the list of competitors it does help me when compiling the figures.

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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

Thanks, Mr D - in which case this month's entry is not quite as healthy as I thought!

As of 12.15 a.m. 3rd December, 39 different punts from 89 punters.

Identical entries are listed in order of posting.

A pretty even distribution around the 1971-2000 mean (5.1), with the usual slight weighting towards warm (54% : 46%).

All the late entries, however, go for a below average month...understandably, perhaps, after some recent GFS runs. We shall see!

8.5 Craig Evans

7.4 Optimus Prime

7.2 Mike W

7.2 mark forster 630

7.0 The Pit

7.0 Gavin P

6.6 reef

6.5 robthefool

6.5 Thundery Wintry Showers

6.5 Timmy H

6.4 Tonyh

6.3 GRHinPorts

6.2 Anti-Mild

6.1 Jack Wales

6.1 Stargazer

6.0 Milhouse

6.0 vesuvius

6.0 sundog

6.0 acbrixton

5.9 Mr_Data

5.9 mK13

5.9 bluearmy

5.8 osmposm

5.8 kold weather

5.8 Timmead

5.7 alza

5.7 Stu_London

5.7 Don

5.6 sufc

5.6 daveshug

5.6 JACKONE

5.5 LomondSnowstorm

5.5 Glacier Point

5.4 damianslaw

5.4 mark bayley

5.3 James M

5.3 Megamoonflake

5.3 snowmaiden

5.3 virtualsphere

5.3 chionomaniac

5.3 Mr Maunder

5.3 Great Plum

5.2 shuggee

5.2 Norrance

5.2 arcticfox

5.2 TomSE20

5.1 SteveB

5.1 ukmoose

5.1 summer blizzard

5.1 BLAST FROM THE PAST

5.0 Fozzi 999

5.0 Pete Tattum

5.0 NaDamantaSam

4.9 WhiteXmas

4.9 DR Hosking - late penalty (2 days)

4.8 Summer of 95

4.8 The watcher

4.8 Stratos Ferric

4.7 Cal

4.7 DAVID SNOW

4.7 Roger J Smith

4.7 phil n.warks.

4.7 shaunwales - late penalty (1 day)

4.7 Backtrack - late penalty (2 days)

4.6 Koppite

4.6 fozfoster

4.6 AtlanticFlamethrower

4.5 derby4life

4.5 Snowstorm1

4.5 adamjones416

4.5 snowray

4.5 Polar Continental - late penalty (1 day)

4.4 Snowman0697

4.3 ned

4.3 Devon-Nelly

4.2 Kentish Man - late penalty (1 day)

4.1 Duncan McAlister

3.9 BARRY

3.9 Snowyowl19

3.8 mullender83

3.8 pjb120

3.8 stewfox

3.4 cooling climate

3.3 Polar Side

3.1 Terminal Moraine

3.0 North Sea Snow Convection - late penalty (1 day)

2.8 SNOWPLOUGH - late penalty (2 days)

2.5 Polar Gael

1.0 trickydicky

Edited by osmposm
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Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!

Doh! Been to busy with exams etc and I've let it become so late its almost not worth me entering!

I might as make a guess anyway whether its included or not, 5.5C

Can't see why it can't be included....but the penalty is now (until midnight) -30 points.

In October, even without being late I scored just 17 points or so....so beware, you can end up (I assume) effectively having a negative score. I presume that's what happened to Backtrack the same month - I think he had a -60 penalty, amazingly, and since he only scored around 25 before the deduction that was an expensive entry!

In case you didn't realize, you are permitted to miss up to two entries over the year (Dec 09 - Nov 10) and still be included in the annual competition.

On which subject, does anyone else think it might be an idea to have a small bonus for entering in all twelve months?

Ossie

Edited by osmposm
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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

How is the CET fairing so far?

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

How is the CET fairing so far?

4.1c Here and thats about the lowest it will get

http://hadobs.metoff..._info_mean.html

With at least 10 days of mild /average ahead it can only rise

My revised 3.8c (orginally 5.1c) was again based on hope rather then a historic experience. I might even start using the term 'even larger teapot'

I can see it now 2050. Grandad 'what is a frost' sad.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A fairly cool start to the month then. December usually starts on a fairly mild note, temperatures in the coming days look above average but nothing exceptional, expecting the CET to peak on Thursday with gradual decline therein setting in.

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Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)

Hadley 4.3 to the 4th

Thats lower than what I thought actually.

The last 2 days for my area have been very mild for the time of year.

Last nights min was 9.2c, tonight my temperature has been in double figures and still is.

All courtesy of the Irish Sea...

but in saying that I can see this month being somewhat average should high pressure begin to dominate in the second half.

Thank goodness the CET is not exclusive to my area....otherwise it would certainly be a harsh result.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Thats lower than what I thought actually.

The last 2 days for my area have been very mild for the time of year.

Last nights min was 9.2c, tonight my temperature has been in double figures and still is.

All courtesy of the Irish Sea...

but in saying that I can see this month being somewhat average should high pressure begin to dominate in the second half.

Thank goodness the CET is not exclusive to my area....otherwise it would certainly be a harsh result.

I don't think that HADCET includes any data from this weekend so it should shoot up alot by Monday lunchtime.

Manley is at 4.8 when yesterday was included and is normally colder than the hadley figure, so I would suggest maybe a 0.7 rise for just saturday on hadley.

Maybe being somewhere between 5.5 and 6.0 by Friday.

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