Netweather Winter Forecast

[Paul]

Hi all, as you may know the winter forecast written by Stewart Ramping (Glacier Point) is online tomorrow, and as a bit of fun I thought we could have a mini competition - with the winner getting a subscription to nw extra for the winter.

The competition will be judged by the team, and is purely for a bit of fun so don't feel like you need to be an expert to have a go! In short, all you have to do is have a stab at what the general gist of the forecast will be - you can perhaps guess at the headline, the tone, the temperature and rainfall forecasts and so on - it's up to you, be as detailed or not as you like.

The person judged to be closest to the actual thing will be the winner :o

And don't forget, to give you a helping hand, the interim outlook can be found here (on the same page the forecast itself will appear on tomorrow):

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter-forecast;sess=

Good luck :lol:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi all, as you may know the winter forecast written by Stewart Ramping (Glacier Point) is online tomorrow, and as a bit of fun I thought we could have a mini competition - with the winner getting a subscription to nw extra for the winter.

The competition will be judged by the team, and is purely for a bit of fun so don't feel like you need to be an expert to have a go! In short, all you have to do is have a stab at what the general gist of the forecast will be - you can perhaps guess at the headline, the tone, the temperature and rainfall forecasts and so on - it's up to you, be as detailed or not as you like.

The person judged to be closest to the actual thing will be the winner

And don't forget, to give you a helping hand, the interim outlook can be found here (on the same page the forecast itself will appear on tomorrow):

http://www.netweathe...-forecast;sess=

Good luck

Dammit, already bought my subscription for the winter!

Here goes anyway - December starting cool and unsettled, middle part wet and mild with a cooler anticyclonic end. Temperatures above average in most parts, rainfall above average in most parts.

January- beginning wet and windy before a very cold middle part of the month with some heavy snowfall, particularly across the east. Dry and cold late month, before the atlantic influence returns in the final days on the month bringing some sleet and possibly snow to northern parts. Temperatures below average, especially in the southeast and rainfall below average, especially in western parts.

February- beginning rather wet, but with a few cold snaps mid-late month. Temperatures around or very slightly below average, with average or slightly above rainfall.

[Buzzit]

Headline : Mixed Bag end of winter looking nastyArticle Tone : Not ConfidentDecember : Temp (normal), Rainfall (above average), Snow (below average) * One std cold snapJanuary : Temp (above average), Rainfall (below average), Snow (below average) * No cold snapsFebruary : Temp (below average), Rainfall (average), Snow (average) * One significant cold snapMarch : Temp (way below average), Rainfall (average), Snow (way above average) * Awful

[Snowstorm1]

December

The first week of December will be windy and rainy in the first few days with temps ranging from 9C-13C.Then as the week progresses high pressure will take over for the end of the week with sunny and warm days for december 10C-13C but chilly night ranging from -1C - 3C.

The Second Week will continue a similar theme but the temps will drop slightly 8C - 11C.

Then As we enter the run upto christmas Low pressure will take over and at first winds will be veering from the west but by the wednesday they will veer northwesterly.Then during Thursday they will veer northerly and polar air flow will drain through the country brining at first snow showers for northern scotland but by the nighttime a polar low will sweep the country leaving a white christmas instore for most places :lol:. The only areas that could miss out are Southwest england but dont worry you will get some just later in the day. As i was saying during the day a front from the southwest could move through the southwest and up through the country and if this happens there will be a WHITE WONDERLAND!

And then through the last week the snow will go from western areas for a time because a battleground scenrio develops and as this happens eastern areas will see upto 1ft of snow lying in most places by the end of the week.And at the minuite i believe the cold will win out bringing the snow back to western areas of the uk just in time for the New Year.

December

The first week of December will be windy and rainy in the first few days with temps ranging from 9C-13C.Then as the week progresses high pressure will take over for the end of the week with sunny and warm days for december 10C-13C but chilly night ranging from -1C - 3C.

The Second Week will continue a similar theme but the temps will drop slightly 8C - 11C.

Then As we enter the run upto christmas Low pressure will take over and at first winds will be veering from the west but by the wednesday they will veer northwesterly.Then during Thursday they will veer northerly and polar air flow will drain through the country brining at first snow showers for northern scotland but by the nighttime a polar low will sweep the country leaving a white christmas instore for most places . The only areas that could miss out are Southwest england but dont worry you will get some just later in the day. As i was saying during the day a front from the southwest could move through the southwest and up through the country and if this happens there will be a WHITE WONDERLAND!

And then through the last week the snow will go from western areas for a time because a battleground scenrio develops and as this happens eastern areas will see upto 1ft of snow lying in most places by the end of the week.And at the minuite i believe the cold will win out bringing the snow back to western areas of the uk just in time for the New Year.

February

Then feburary above average temps with winds coming from the southwest but also a colder outbreak at the end of the month with some snow showers for eastern areas of england and scotland. Overall though in February temps roughly a degree above average

Edited November 23, 2009 by Snowstorm1

[snow showers]

The stratospheric warmings taking place over Canada and eastern Siberia won't be in a favourable location to influence our weather like it did in February 2009. The persistence of low angular momentum won't help favour the GWO thus it won't be in any favourable phases to deliver the long awaited cold weather. There will be some cold snaps but not potent enough to be as good as 1963 or 1947, or greatly in frequency. The -NAO pattern which is to favour our colder weather prospects is not yet totally clear whether it has come to fruition as yet. Not enough westerly wind burst across the tropics have helped. It is unclear whether El Nino will play any part in influencing the winter weather.

[Cal]

Mild start, becoming progressively colder later in the winter!

Dec,

First week wet & windy temps near normal, possible cold snap mid month, though drier, towards the end of the month wet & windy with a cold feel to it, hill snow an improving possibilty, maybe towards lower levels in the north & west. Temps ave for the month with rainfall slightly above ave.

Jan,

Starting of on a cool/cold note with precipitation again n&w seeing the best of any snowfall/rain, again mid month should see a drier interlude with high pressure in control, later on as the high is based to the n/e the atlantic has several attempts to bring the weather in, again west is wettest with the possibility of some decent snowfall for western and nothern areas, milder air sometimes making in roads into southern britain, but with a southerly tracking jet there is a higher than normal chance of a slider/southerly tracking low which mey give a bonus snowfall to the midlands/south. Temps slightly below ave with rainfall ave.

Feb,

Drier to start the month as high pressure is not far away, possibly again to the north or east of the uk, wintry showers along exposed eastern coasts, low pressure towards central europe should keep the high in situ for a while, drier and brighter in the n&w, towards mid month atlantic lows come again up against cold continental air, initially the cold air wins but not before the south and west may experience some notable snowfall, later this tranfers over the the northern & eastern half of the uk as milder air begins to establish itself from the atlantic, again some notable snowfall from the mids north, eventually the milder air returns to all parts briefly, at the latter end of the month high pressure in charge with some low minima at night. Temps below ave, rainfall below ave.

[Mark Bayley]

December: Slightly above average overall

Mostly unsettled with snow to higher ground at times. Colder as he head into the last third with a cold snap possible, white christmas looks very possible this year.

January: Below average temps

A cold start with snow for some, some milder periods during the month however mostly on the cold side. Rainfall around average, but quite a bit of snow at times.

February: Temperatures above average

A Cold start however turning milder as we head through the month, rainfall around average with the snowiest weather at the start of the month.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

December

very mild first 2 weeks, similar to november 10-13°C, maybe a weekend northerly toppler 13th and 14th with sat and sun night frosty but sunny days (weekend) 14th-21st mild with high pressure to the southwest, N or NW winds but Atlantic air but mainly dry and cloudy, 22nd-31st, low after low again, wet days alternating with cooler showery days

January

1st-7th starting similar to decembers end, lows dominating with warm sectors then westerly winds on alternate days,

8th-11th weekend northerly toppler, coldest part of winter with snow in scotland off the Arctic air, snow down east coast, the odd wintry shower down the west coast as well, very cold nights inland sunny weekend, late 11th snow moving in from the west transient snow for northern hills, eastern England/Scotland

12th-31st, conveyor belt lows moving in again with rain and warm sectors on alternate(ish) days, snow in Scotland on high levels in temporary PM air

February

starting mildish mild in south colder in north, then from middle 14th ish, spring arriving high pressure 14th-end, drier for all the UK, snowfree everywhere, feeling warm in any sun, maybe coolish nights, temps from 11-18°C max, -1-4°C min

[fear sneachta]

December: Starts off reasonably mild but gets progressively colder as the month wears on. Snow for many northern parts for Christmas. Lots of happy children!

January: The cold deepens and there is frequent snow for all parts. Many roads become impassable and people start praying for a thaw. However, temperatures continue to plummet and oceanographers suddenly report that the North Atlantic Drift (NAD) has, unexpectedly and without precedent, diverted south. By late January, temperatures are around -10 in many parts and icebergs can be seen off the coast of Scotland. This hampers shipping and oil drilling.

February: The cold rapidly deepens further with icebergs as far south as the Channel. Parts of the North Sea freeze over. Merchant ships cannot deliver food and many shops have a dearth of food. People start looting and civil order starts to break down. However, by late February, temperatures start to recover somewhat. Still lots of snow but there is a definite thaw.

March: Temperatures rise above zero and snow melts entirely by the middle of the month. It is reported that the NAD has resumed its normal course and order is gradually restored.

Edited November 23, 2009 by fear sneachta

[Paul]

Liking the entries so far, thanks all

Dammit, already bought my subscription for the winter!

Don't worry, if you or anyone else who already has a sub wins then we'll give you a refund

[KTtom]

Mild and mobile, then cold and blocked before the return to mild and mobile.

backed up with loads of technical charts and phrases I don't fully understand

...and for the Mets offering....'average or above temperatures and rainfall'

[Bristawl Si]

Here goes:

the first half of December will continue stormy, as per November, but gradually temps will fall to about 7 to 8 celsius over most of the UK, and a little colder in the north. Mid-december will see a respite from the stormy conditions to a settled period with frost and fog; daytime temps of around 5-6c. The days leading upto Xmas will see another stormy period, but just after Xmas the jetstream will start to shift south and by New Year's day there's a threat of heavy snow a la 78/79.

January will see intermittent bouts of cold, snowy weather with less cold, showery breaks in between. By February we will back to more settled conditions, with average temps; towards the end of Feb colder, snowy conditions will appear, before March becomes mild and wet for a time. Cold, snowy weather will effectively be over by March.

Enjoy!

Edited November 23, 2009 by Bristle boy

[MR EXTREMES]

december starting cool with possible hill snow in wales and northern england and scotland temps a little below to start in the north but around average in the south.

the rest of december looks like switching back to slightly above average temp wise in the south,

around average in the north with some very wet and stormy weather to come throught out the entire uk mostly caused by unstable atmosphere helped along by el nino.

for the rest of winter : january & febuary,

i feel will also be stormy and wet but more of a trend towards above average with very little in the way of northern blocking.

both rainfall and temps could be fairly above.

the best hope for cold will be as depressions pass through.

europe is also looking dissapointing after a good start this will be a typical mild el nino winter with the odd cold snap.

[sundog]

DECEMBER

A cold first week but staying generally unsettled,precip wintry at times especially over the mts- the Highlands in Scotland in particular , some frost the odd night if conditions allow.

Second and third week again generally unsettled but milder,possibly rather windy at times,would not rule out a storm.

Fourth week turning progressively colder and dryer from the north with plenty of frost, severe in many parts. Maybe a chance of some snow the last few days of the month particularly for northern and eastern Britain.

January

First week turning very cold (as even colder air comes down from the north) with snow becoming more widespread across the BI,severe frosts at night. (Maybe the coldest week of winter 09/10)

Second week turning much milder with the Atlantic starting to kick off again and thats the way i see for the remainder of January mostly mild and wet. Stormy conditions possible from time to time also.

February

First week starting off where January left off the Atlantic still in control.

Second week the weather starting to settle down and the weather starting to turn colder with some frost.

Third week the beginings of an easterly as a scandi hp starts to take control,turning progressively colder and frosts becoming severe with snow possible in eastern Britain by the end of the week.

Fourth week Starting off bitter for the BI ,The Atlantic starts however to move in with the clash resulting in very heavy snow for many. By the end of the week the Atlantic wins out and it turns much milder.

[ThunderStorms]

Four your country:

Dez - very bad weather in the first 15 days, with mild weather, and in the second half of Dezember i think you have a pattern with cold and dry, but with some bad weather too ..

Jan - a cold pattern, with some episodes of wetter weather too ..

Fev - very cold days for UK !!

For Portugal

Dec - I hope the first half of the rainiest months in the north than the south, with no lock on Greenland, then a reversal of the negative NAO for the second half in bad weather especially in central and southern Portugal! Above average rainfall across the country and the average temperature

Jan - I hope one months like the second half of December, with tb few episodes of dry and cold especially in the second half of the month! Above normal precipitation in central and southern media in the north.

FEB - I expect a cold month, but at the same rainy weather with values of above normal precipitation in particular in Central and South! I still a month on average throughout the country although it may be above average in central and southern Portugal!

Good luck for me, that i live in the south of Portugal!

[johnholmes]

for your information Ian

Mild by Met O definition requires temperatures to be 2-3C above normal, whether one takes 1971-2000 or the preceding one may complicate the issue, but the definition is quite clear, for short term forecasts and seasonal-the same definition applies.

a little above/a little below, I suppose could be assessed as between the two values quoted above?

Edited November 23, 2009 by johnholmes

[azores92]

ah go on then, ill give it a go . probably will turn out completely wrong but hey.

december- an unsettled start to the month with temperatures slightly above average, perhaps a little snow for northern hills. this unsettled atlantic regime will continue to around mid month, with periods of rain for all, interspersed with cooler showery days, when a brief cold shot could occur, with northern hills faring best, providing sleet or wet snow for the north, and rain or sleet for the south. the second half of the month will continue in similar style to the first half, with temperatures tending towards mild at times, and occasional periods of snow for northern hills.

january- a month of two halves. the month will start fairly unsettled and mild, with periods of rain and blustery winds at times. this should have brighter cooler days interspersed between rain bands, and the pattern should change for mid month, with a surface high building across the uk from the north, introducing colder frostier weather for all. fog could be slow to clear in prone spots(vale of york/midlands). temperatures should be fairly suppressed for all. the end of the month could see a potential snow event with atlantic air trying to make inroads from the west.

february- the first half could see some more snowfall, with the cold air being fairly stubborn to move, and the atlantic throwing plenty of moisture at us. however parts of the south could be closer to milder air, meaning here sleet is more likely. i anticipate a springlike second half to february, with the azores high ridging towards us, and temps well above average.

[johnholmes]

grief Ian

I am NOT sniping simply giving you the definition-and I'm not aware its been torn up over any time period-the same definitions apply.

[Nights King]

December - unsettled first week followed by mild mid month and atlantic dominating, then a dry cold snap towards the end to bring in the new year. Xmas will be cold and frosty. Slightly above average temperature wise but not by far maybe no for than 0.5c above the norm.

January - Cold first week with a marginal event occuring as there is a break down from south west The snow confined to high ground (200m+) north of the M4 corridor. Mild wet mush for weeks 2 and 3 then a short easterly delivering some snow to the east coast down towards kent.

A couple of marginal events for central areas with snow over 200m early and late in the month. Temperature Overall slightly below average. 0.5c-1.0c below average

Febuary - Cold outbreak of weather lasting 3 days with first snow to low levels for much of central and western low lying areas which will tend fade in days 4-5 leaving only a smattering of wintryness to highest ground from midlands northwards as atlantic fronts push NE across uk stalling a little in north east before moving away. Last week of month will herald spring like conditions although over night frost will still be a problem. Temperature wise slightly below average with up to 0.5c below norm.

I would say overall a cool not cold winter is likely with higher probability of cold snaps with more marginal snow events to drive everyone on forum crazy!

No science behind this i am afraid just a hunch so don't shoot me or praise me if it is correct. Sorry i didnt apply more detail also you know how it is i have an apointment with my local barman.

[Ben_Cambs]

My try:

December: After a cool start with some snow over northern hills and possibly the Welsh hills, temperatures will return back to average into the second week with the unsettled theme continuing, with long spells of rain on some days and sunshine and showers on the others, and these showers may be wintry on the tops of the Scottish mountains, this theme continuing into the 3rd week, but by the 20th winds will veer to the north-west, producing wintry showers in the north and west. A northerly blast around christmas, with Scotland faring best, some seeing a white christmas, and the wintry theme will extend south for a time. Although on christmas day there will be little accumilations, mostly in the North, and these showers will track southwards, and there may be accumilations on low level ground across many parts. But after, the unsettled mild weather will return.

January: For the first week the mild unsettled theme continues. In the second week, there may be a brief northerly blast , bringing wintry showers to most areas, with frost and fog aswell. The third week may bring a respite, with high pressure dominating, light south-easterly winds, bring cold and frosty conditions to the country. Into the fourth week for a time winds will return to a mild south-westerly, but after this.....

February: Easterly winds dominate for the first two weeks. Bringing in Siberian air, this will bring snow to most places in the country, especially Northern and Eastern Britain. There may be large accumilations of snow similar to last year, and may cause severe disruption to airports and roads. A battle will occur of moisture from the south west, and the cold from the east, meaning central and eastern Britain could see a lot of snow. The far south west will be milder, so there will be little snow here. Into the third week, there is little snow but still cold temperatures and most of Britain will have a layer of snow. Skiing in Scotland will be the best in years. Towards the end of the third week and into the fourth week, the wind direction changes, veering to the south west, meaning a huge thaw in the south especially. Rain and milder temperatures may lead to flooding. Snow on northern hills will remain for some time though. By the end of February, the mild regime has kicked in, and is back to classic Atlantic winter weather

Edited November 23, 2009 by Snowman0697

[January Snowstorm]

The main headline I think will be very unsettled and often windy

December - December will continue on the mainly unsettled theme & overall quite a mild average month tempwise. There will be quite a cold potent snap just after Christmas which will deliver snow to many though this not lasting too long.

A white Christmas is possible, though likely to be after the main event like 26th - 29th

January - January after starting cold will be an above average month temps wise and also with plenty of wet spells. The unsettled theme will continue with only brief drier interludes. It will be notable in that there will be very little in the way of cold or frost throughout the month. Flooding will be the main risk esp after mid month

February - After starting on a mild / very mild note February will bring quite a change after about wk 1 to much colder conditions around mid-month. Snow will be quite widespread with some notable cold esp at night. Temps will come in below average for the month, though overall a much drier month than we've been used to with high pressure never to far away

So to summarise a very unsettled start to Winter and apart from just after Christmas a mild Dec and Jan. Feb will be much drier but colder and will likley come in below average

Edited November 23, 2009 by January Snowstorm

[Alex95]

December: Above average, milder spells and rain, cooler later

January: High pressure, cool, dry esp. later on

February: Northern blocking, cold, snow etc

Sorry it is so brief but I'm in a rush!

Edited November 23, 2009 by alza

[BARRY]

Here we go then first go at this.

December. First two weeks temps around normal with pressure starting to rise over Svalbard. wind starts to shift more easterly, but the Atlantic starts to excerpt it's self,But this is a brief interlude as high pressure edges in from the Continent. temps average

January starts in the same vain, I think this will herald 2 or 3 weeks of cold weather with snow for the east and occasional snow for the west, Atlantic lows will affect the southwest bringing bouts of rain and snow throughout the period. Temps average or below

February starts on a cold but settled term of weather before Atlantic fronts push in to give wet and windy conditions with occasional northerly incursions above average temps

[Snowstorm1]

This has to be done:

With the MJO phasing into the QBO, everyone will expect El Nino to retrogress to an El Matador. This will have downstream effects on my MOJO which will reload into WTF phase 12g. In mid-Novcember the NAO will go MENTO, following the GFS into a peak energy of the NOSLAPS. Convective currents will fry my brain, followed by UKMETO into a progression of shortwave Mexicans. Ensembles will prove that Telford is sleeted in; 6ft of sleet will bring a Polar Know to greebs. Tall Paul will be like a giraffe, John Holmes will wish that his eye in the sky was taller than Paul's. Steve will purr while Nick will move back to Sussex. Ian Brown will frown, Ross B will be like me and will spam the board with ice, and mince. The 18z will be in the pub with Shuggee, it won't snow in Carlisle, it will snow on my head son. Once the negative NAO is discounted, to just £2 a bottle, the AO will decided to GTFOH (get the f*** outta here).

Finally, in late March, we will all fight over a single snowflake like 1,000,000 piranhas trying to eat Posh Spice if she fell into the Amazon.

So, in conclusion: An unsettled and mild December; a cooler but windy January; lots of blocking in February with a vicious Northerly and two Easterlies....and loads of snow :)

That had me in stiches

[DAVID SNOW]

This has to be done:

With the MJO phasing into the QBO, everyone will expect El Nino to retrogress to an El Matador. This will have downstream effects on my MOJO which will reload into WTF phase 12g. In mid-Novcember the NAO will go MENTO, following the GFS into a peak energy of the NOSLAPS. Convective currents will fry my brain, followed by UKMETO into a progression of shortwave Mexicans. Ensembles will prove that Telford is sleeted in; 6ft of sleet will bring a Polar Know to greebs. Tall Paul will be like a giraffe, John Holmes will wish that his eye in the sky was taller than Paul's. Steve will purr while Nick will move back to Sussex. Ian Brown will frown, Ross B will be like me and will spam the board with ice, and mince. The 18z will be in the pub with Shuggee, it won't snow in Carlisle, it will snow on my head son. Once the negative NAO is discounted, to just £2 a bottle, the AO will decided to GTFOH (get the f*** outta here).

Finally, in late March, we will all fight over a single snowflake like 1,000,000 piranhas trying to eat Posh Spice if she fell into the Amazon.

So, in conclusion: An unsettled and mild December; a cooler but windy January; lots of blocking in February with a vicious Northerly and two Easterlies....and loads of snow :)

Very very funny, Mr Crazy Snow Fan could not have put it better himself

catch my drift... i am still laughing, i must NOT read it again